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Animal Spirits

Will AI Displace Financial Advisors? (EP. 455)

47 min episode · 2 min read
·
Michael Kitsis,Phil Huber

Episode

47 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Productivity, Personal Finance, Relationships

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • AI & Advisor Displacement: DIY investors who upload financial documents to multiple AI platforms and analyze competing outputs are self-selecting out of advisory relationships — they never became clients anyway. Advisors should recognize that people who find that process exhausting are precisely the clients who hire and retain human advisors long-term.
  • Technology & Advisor Productivity: Over 30 years of industry benchmarking data, advisory firms maintained the same 1% fee, ~40% overhead expense ratio, and ~30% profit margin despite adopting the internet, smartphones, robo-advisors, and AI. The only metric that shifted materially was client load, which declined steadily as advisors went deeper with fewer, higher-revenue relationships.
  • AI Efficiency Paradox: When technology frees up advisor time, advisors consistently choose deeper client engagement over acquiring new clients — once income reaches a comfort threshold. Advisors should proactively identify underserved top clients rather than assuming efficiency gains will translate into expanded books of business.
  • Private Credit Default Reality: The Cliffwater Direct Lending Index, tracking 10,000-plus middle market borrowers since 2004, recorded only ~60 basis points in realized credit losses during 2008 despite the GFC. The index returned meaningful double digits in both 2009 and 2010, when actual realized losses peaked near 7% and 3% respectively, demonstrating income's stabilizing role.
  • Private Credit Liquidity Management: Well-run evergreen private credit structures meet redemptions through pre-built revolving credit facilities and natural loan repayment cycles — not forced asset sales. With average effective loan maturities of three to four years and roughly 30% of portfolios repaying annually, organic liquidity is substantially higher than public perception suggests.

What It Covers

Recorded live at Future Proof Miami, Animal Spirits hosts Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson interview Michael Kitces on AI's threat to financial advisors and Phil Huber of Cliffwater on private credit bubble fears, using industry data spanning two decades to challenge prevailing negative narratives in both areas.

Key Questions Answered

  • AI & Advisor Displacement: DIY investors who upload financial documents to multiple AI platforms and analyze competing outputs are self-selecting out of advisory relationships — they never became clients anyway. Advisors should recognize that people who find that process exhausting are precisely the clients who hire and retain human advisors long-term.
  • Technology & Advisor Productivity: Over 30 years of industry benchmarking data, advisory firms maintained the same 1% fee, ~40% overhead expense ratio, and ~30% profit margin despite adopting the internet, smartphones, robo-advisors, and AI. The only metric that shifted materially was client load, which declined steadily as advisors went deeper with fewer, higher-revenue relationships.
  • AI Efficiency Paradox: When technology frees up advisor time, advisors consistently choose deeper client engagement over acquiring new clients — once income reaches a comfort threshold. Advisors should proactively identify underserved top clients rather than assuming efficiency gains will translate into expanded books of business.
  • Private Credit Default Reality: The Cliffwater Direct Lending Index, tracking 10,000-plus middle market borrowers since 2004, recorded only ~60 basis points in realized credit losses during 2008 despite the GFC. The index returned meaningful double digits in both 2009 and 2010, when actual realized losses peaked near 7% and 3% respectively, demonstrating income's stabilizing role.
  • Private Credit Liquidity Management: Well-run evergreen private credit structures meet redemptions through pre-built revolving credit facilities and natural loan repayment cycles — not forced asset sales. With average effective loan maturities of three to four years and roughly 30% of portfolios repaying annually, organic liquidity is substantially higher than public perception suggests.

Notable Moment

Kitces revealed that a three-advisor firm in 2000 employed eight support staff, including one person whose entire job was opening client mail and filing paper statements. Today, portfolio management software does that work — yet total firm costs, fees, and margins remain statistically unchanged from that era.

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Episode Transcript

Today's animal spirits is brought to you by Toucrium. Looking to diversify your portfolio beyond stocks and bonds, commodities are getting more and more attention as we enter 2026. Toucrium's agricultural ETFs offer a way to access the futures prices of essential crops. These funds may help manage inflation risk and add diversification in your portfolio. Ask your financial advisor or explore Tookram ETFs on your own. Visit tookram.com. Click the link in the show notes for more. Today's show is also brought to you by Janice Henderson. At Janus Henderson Investors, we believe working together is the way to work better by combining your portfolio plans and our in-depth strategy, your valued assets and our valuable insights, your mission and our vision, always working in perfect harmony to find the right investment opportunities. Janice Henderson Investors, investing in a brighter future together. Visit janice henderson dot com. Welcome to animal spirits with Michael and Ben. We're live from Miami. That's right, Ben. It is I don't know what time it is. It's the afternoon. We recorded a live animal spirits at 11:45AM, and we tried to do something different this time. We did some AI stuff, listened to an email, sparked that conversation, listened to an email, sparked a roast. Ben and I roasted each other. So this guy told me that I say what do I say a lot? Anyhoo. Anyhoo. And I said, you know what? Let's roast each other. I don't know that I say anyhoo, but I think it's worth it. I believe it. And I thought I thought the jokes were okay. I mean, listen. We're not professional comedians, obviously. Ben's certainly not. And I'm told so we couldn't hear it and we couldn't hear it on stage. So it was, like, pretty awkward. It's it felt like they landed, like, with a thud. But, apparently, there were some laughs. We just couldn't hear it. Yeah. The wind just carried them away. Yeah. It was the wind. There was Yeah. It wasn't it wasn't our jokes. I blame the wind. So, anyway, we're doing an intro because, it's Monday. And last night at dinner, the futures market opened, and the only thing that people cared about was, crude oil futures were up 27%. And the S and P was down 2.2%. And I'm sitting with, friend of the show, Dan Ives, and I said to Dan and this is true. You weren't there, but trust me. People could verify it. I said to Dan, Bitcoin's flat. Like, not to and, obviously, I'm just talking about for the market. If if Bitcoin's on 8% and the SP was down too, I'd be like, oh So you weren't worried? Not that I wasn't worried. I was worried. Like, I'm, you know, I'm worried. Everyone around the table was kind of quietly freaking out. Like, oh my gosh. This this could be bad. Not me. Dan was there. Alex was there. I I have I have witnesses. …

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  • by Cliffwater

    The Cliffwater Direct Lending Index, tracking 10,000-plus middle market borrowers since 2004, recorded only ~60 basis points in realized credit losses during 2008 despite the GFC.

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