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Animal Spirits

Talk Your Book: Why Commodities Are Working

34 min episode · 2 min read
·
Greg Sher

Episode

34 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Productivity, Investing, Fundraising & VC

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • Active Commodity Management: PIMCO takes 500-600 basis points of tracking error versus the Bloomberg Commodity Index, using five distinct factors including momentum (20-25% of deviation), carry optimization, behavioral skew analysis, and curve positioning. The fund can range from 80% to 120% invested based on market conditions, actively managing collateral through PIMCO's fixed income expertise to enhance returns beyond basic SOFR rates.
  • Central Bank Gold Demand: Central banks shifted to aggressive gold buying after 2022 when the US and Europe froze Russian assets, viewing gold as protection against confiscation risk. This represents a structural change in reserve management, with emerging market countries diversifying away from vulnerability to Western sanctions. Recent months show increased retail participation alongside continued institutional buying, suggesting broadening demand beyond just central banks.
  • Supply-Demand Imbalance Setup: Current commodity fundamentals mirror the 2000s supercycle, with inadequate supply-side investment facing multiple demand pillars: AI infrastructure (highly energy-intensive), energy transition buildout (commodity-intensive despite eventual cheaper molecules), military-industrial CapEx increases, and strategic stockpiling by nations building supply chain resilience. Companies prioritize free cash flow over growth CapEx, constraining future supply while demand accelerates.
  • Bifurcated Oil Markets: Sanctions on Russia and Iran create two separate oil markets - Western-acceptable supply and sanctioned supply. Russian oil inventories have built up 40-50 million barrels on water that cannot reach Western markets, supporting prices despite OPEC production increases. This geopolitical fragmentation means traders now focus on specific oil types in specific locations rather than a unified global market.
  • Inflation Hedge Performance: Commodities delivered textbook inflation hedge performance during the 2020s inflation surge, outperforming the S&P 500 ex-Magnificent Seven while providing portfolio liquidity that real estate and infrastructure investments lacked. Gold matched Magnificent Seven returns. The 2022 period demonstrated commodities' unique ability to protect portfolios during simultaneous stock and bond declines while maintaining daily liquidity for rebalancing.

What It Covers

Greg Sharenow from PIMCO discusses the PIMCO Commodity Strategy Active ETF (CMDT), explaining why commodities have outperformed most asset classes over the past six years. The conversation covers momentum-based commodity investing, gold's 22% annual returns in the 2020s, central bank buying patterns, and how AI infrastructure buildout plus deglobalization trends create sustained demand for real assets.

Key Questions Answered

  • Active Commodity Management: PIMCO takes 500-600 basis points of tracking error versus the Bloomberg Commodity Index, using five distinct factors including momentum (20-25% of deviation), carry optimization, behavioral skew analysis, and curve positioning. The fund can range from 80% to 120% invested based on market conditions, actively managing collateral through PIMCO's fixed income expertise to enhance returns beyond basic SOFR rates.
  • Central Bank Gold Demand: Central banks shifted to aggressive gold buying after 2022 when the US and Europe froze Russian assets, viewing gold as protection against confiscation risk. This represents a structural change in reserve management, with emerging market countries diversifying away from vulnerability to Western sanctions. Recent months show increased retail participation alongside continued institutional buying, suggesting broadening demand beyond just central banks.
  • Supply-Demand Imbalance Setup: Current commodity fundamentals mirror the 2000s supercycle, with inadequate supply-side investment facing multiple demand pillars: AI infrastructure (highly energy-intensive), energy transition buildout (commodity-intensive despite eventual cheaper molecules), military-industrial CapEx increases, and strategic stockpiling by nations building supply chain resilience. Companies prioritize free cash flow over growth CapEx, constraining future supply while demand accelerates.
  • Bifurcated Oil Markets: Sanctions on Russia and Iran create two separate oil markets - Western-acceptable supply and sanctioned supply. Russian oil inventories have built up 40-50 million barrels on water that cannot reach Western markets, supporting prices despite OPEC production increases. This geopolitical fragmentation means traders now focus on specific oil types in specific locations rather than a unified global market.
  • Inflation Hedge Performance: Commodities delivered textbook inflation hedge performance during the 2020s inflation surge, outperforming the S&P 500 ex-Magnificent Seven while providing portfolio liquidity that real estate and infrastructure investments lacked. Gold matched Magnificent Seven returns. The 2022 period demonstrated commodities' unique ability to protect portfolios during simultaneous stock and bond declines while maintaining daily liquidity for rebalancing.

Notable Moment

Sharenow reveals that after 27 years in commodities, the current market represents a truly unique backdrop. The combination of strategic stockpiling by governments, AI-driven demand, supply chain redundancy investments, and sanctions-driven market fragmentation creates conditions he has never witnessed before in his career, suggesting a fundamental shift in how commodity markets function globally.

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Episode Transcript

Today's animal spirits talker book is brought to you by PIMCO. Go to pimco.com to learn more about the PIMCO commodity strategy active ETF. That's ticker c m d t that we're gonna be talking about today. Pimco.com to learn more. Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing. Join Michael Badnick and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. Michael, one of the things that I've read about a lot over the years is that commodities are not for investing. Commodities are for trend following. They're they're perfect for because they have such a boom bust cycle, and they can go years without working and doing pretty bad. And it's like when they work, they really work. So I think that trend following slash momentum indicators on these types of assets make a lot of sense to me. Thoughts? They are really working. Now now it's working. Right? Although I wonder how many people have gotten chopped up over the last few weeks with the the volatility. They do lend themselves to that because well, it's not to say there aren't underlying fundamentals because there is supply, demand, buying, selling, etcetera. But a lot of it a lot of the supply and the demand is driven by the price and by the behavior of the buyers and the sellers. Right. Did I just say a thing did I just say a lot without saying anything? I think I might have No. No. You're right. Like, they say the cure for higher prices is higher prices and the cure for lower prices is lower prices. You're right. It can so, we talked to Greg Sher now. He's a managing director and portfolio manager at PIMCO on their real assets team. And we talked about commodities and gold and everything around it. And he talked about how, you know, PIMCO, I think, is known as more of a macro type of portfolio management firm. Right? But he talked about how they use momentum and trend in their commodity strategy. So this is interesting talk. Here's our talk with Greg. Greg, welcome to the show. Thank you very much for having me. Alright. Today, we're talking about the PIMCO commodity strategy active exchange traded fund, the ticker of CMDT. And I guess this is a sign of the times that we're talking to PIMCO, and we're not talking bonds. We're talking commodities. So what is let's start at a high level. What is the underlying or overlying? Hey. What's the difference between those two phrases? Either way, what are we talking about …

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  • by Bloomberg

    PIMCO takes 500-600 basis points of tracking error versus the Bloomberg Commodity Index, using five distinct factors including momentum (20-25% of deviation), carry optimization, behavioral skew analysis, and curve positioning.
  • by PIMCO

    Greg Sharenow from PIMCO discusses the PIMCO Commodity Strategy Active ETF (CMDT), explaining why commodities have outperformed most asset classes over the past six years.

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