Talk Your Book: The Bull Market in Real Assets
Episode
31 min
Read time
2 min
Topics
Investing, Fundraising & VC, Artificial Intelligence
AI-Generated Summary
Key Takeaways
- ✓Gold Bull Market Positioning: Current gold bull market, which began accelerating in 2022, is up roughly 200% — still well behind the 500% gain of the 1970s cycle and 600% of the early 2000s cycle. Schassler argues the gold market is smaller relative to global equities than in prior cycles, suggesting more room for price appreciation despite already-elevated levels.
- ✓Three-Bucket Real Asset Framework: Investors can structure real asset exposure across three categories: resource assets with commodity operating leverage, scarcity-based stores of value led by gold, and yield-generating real assets. RAAX allocates approximately 23% gold, 18% broad commodities, 11% infrastructure, 8% energy income, with the remainder across materials, uranium, utilities, and clean energy.
- ✓AI Infrastructure as Real Asset Catalyst: Clearing AI's two primary bottlenecks — energy and physical infrastructure — requires a decade-plus capital expenditure cycle driving demand for critical minerals, metals, and energy. Schassler frames two-thirds of RAAX as growth-oriented real assets tied to this buildout, with one-third serving as a hedge against the debt required to finance it.
- ✓Portfolio Construction via Momentum and Mean Reversion: RAAX uses a three-step quantitative process: identify key real asset segments, run optimization targeting minimum portfolio volatility, then apply momentum signals. Winning positions grow larger; underperforming positions shrink. Gold positions have been systematically trimmed since entering the bull market at maximum allocation, with proceeds redeployed across the portfolio.
- ✓Government Spending Drives Real Assets More Than Inflation: Gold's strongest recent performance occurred in 2023–2024 when inflation was below 3%, not during the 2021–2022 inflation spike. Schassler distinguishes the driver as fiat currency abundance versus asset scarcity — measuring equity and bond returns in gold units reveals significantly weaker real performance than nominal figures suggest.
What It Covers
David Schassler, head of multi-asset solutions at VanEck, presents the bull case for real assets through the RAAX ETF, arguing that AI infrastructure buildout, decades of government overspending, and global de-dollarization create a structural multi-decade tailwind for commodities, gold, energy, and infrastructure.
Key Questions Answered
- •Gold Bull Market Positioning: Current gold bull market, which began accelerating in 2022, is up roughly 200% — still well behind the 500% gain of the 1970s cycle and 600% of the early 2000s cycle. Schassler argues the gold market is smaller relative to global equities than in prior cycles, suggesting more room for price appreciation despite already-elevated levels.
- •Three-Bucket Real Asset Framework: Investors can structure real asset exposure across three categories: resource assets with commodity operating leverage, scarcity-based stores of value led by gold, and yield-generating real assets. RAAX allocates approximately 23% gold, 18% broad commodities, 11% infrastructure, 8% energy income, with the remainder across materials, uranium, utilities, and clean energy.
- •AI Infrastructure as Real Asset Catalyst: Clearing AI's two primary bottlenecks — energy and physical infrastructure — requires a decade-plus capital expenditure cycle driving demand for critical minerals, metals, and energy. Schassler frames two-thirds of RAAX as growth-oriented real assets tied to this buildout, with one-third serving as a hedge against the debt required to finance it.
- •Portfolio Construction via Momentum and Mean Reversion: RAAX uses a three-step quantitative process: identify key real asset segments, run optimization targeting minimum portfolio volatility, then apply momentum signals. Winning positions grow larger; underperforming positions shrink. Gold positions have been systematically trimmed since entering the bull market at maximum allocation, with proceeds redeployed across the portfolio.
- •Government Spending Drives Real Assets More Than Inflation: Gold's strongest recent performance occurred in 2023–2024 when inflation was below 3%, not during the 2021–2022 inflation spike. Schassler distinguishes the driver as fiat currency abundance versus asset scarcity — measuring equity and bond returns in gold units reveals significantly weaker real performance than nominal figures suggest.
Notable Moment
Schassler revealed that VanEck originally included crypto in RAAX but removed it after investor pushback. He personally finds Bitcoin's scarcity argument compelling as a gold alternative, but concluded that imposing that view on investors was inappropriate — recommending pairing RAAX with a separate crypto allocation instead.
Episode Transcript
Today's animal spirits talk your book is brought to you by Van Eck. Go to vaneck.com to learn more about the Van Eck Real Assets ETF, ticker Racks, r a a x. That's vaneck.com to learn more. Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing. Join Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. This interview reflects the speaker's views as of the recording date and may change without notice. It includes forward looking statements about markets, economic conditions, and investment strategies that are not guarantees of future results. References to past market performance, asset classes, including gold or commodities, or prior cycles are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent any VanEck funds performance. The VanEck real assets ETF, RAAX, is a diversified fund of funds and does not track or replicate any single asset class. Welcome to animal spirits with Michael and Ben. Michael, one of the things that I think has always irked you and me a little bit about, like, the hard asset crowd is that it's usually, like, the the bull case for that stuff is, like, the bear case for everything else. Right? This stuff is only going to work because everything else is gonna fall apart and or the dollar is gonna collapse or whatever. We haven't heard many cases being made for well, what if, like, actual, it's more growth and the need for this stuff and things getting better innovation that is causing this stuff to go up? I love it. Maybe these things can go hand in hand. It's yeah. It's it's an optimistic take for owning an asset class that is otherwise well, it's I don't know if real assets are an asset class, but, like, gold, for example, is otherwise have, held because things might not be going so great, which is certainly part of the story here. But it's more than just that. Yeah. So we talked to David Schasler. He is the head of multi asset solutions at VINAC, and he runs the VINAC real assets ETF. And he made this case to us. He said, listen. What if the fact that we have all this innovation going on in AI, there's gonna need to be a huge build out. There's gonna need to be all this energy, and it's going to improve growth because it improves productivity. But to get there, we need to spend a lot of money, and that's gonna cause all these real assets to be in heavy demand high demand. So we did kinda get the and this is something you and I have been …
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by VanEck
“David Schassler, head of multi-asset solutions at VanEck, presents the bull case for real assets through the RAAX ETF, arguing that AI infrastructure buildout, decades of government overspending, and global de-dollarization create a structural multi-decade tailwind for commodities, gold, energy, and infrastructure.”
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