Talk Your Book: The Bull Market in Real Assets

What It Covers

David Schassler, head of multi-asset solutions at VanEck, presents the bull case for real assets through the RAAX ETF, arguing that AI infrastructure buildout, decades of government overspending, and global de-dollarization create a structural multi-decade tailwind for commodities, gold, energy, and infrastructure.

Key Questions Answered

• •Gold Bull Market Positioning: Current gold bull market, which began accelerating in 2022, is up roughly 200% — still well behind the 500% gain of the 1970s cycle and 600% of the early 2000s cycle. Schassler argues the gold market is smaller relative to global equities than in prior cycles, suggesting more room for price appreciation despite already-elevated levels.
• •Three-Bucket Real Asset Framework: Investors can structure real asset exposure across three categories: resource assets with commodity operating leverage, scarcity-based stores of value led by gold, and yield-generating real assets. RAAX allocates approximately 23% gold, 18% broad commodities, 11% infrastructure, 8% energy income, with the remainder across materials, uranium, utilities, and clean energy.
• •AI Infrastructure as Real Asset Catalyst: Clearing AI's two primary bottlenecks — energy and physical infrastructure — requires a decade-plus capital expenditure cycle driving demand for critical minerals, metals, and energy. Schassler frames two-thirds of RAAX as growth-oriented real assets tied to this buildout, with one-third serving as a hedge against the debt required to finance it.
• •Portfolio Construction via Momentum and Mean Reversion: RAAX uses a three-step quantitative process: identify key real asset segments, run optimization targeting minimum portfolio volatility, then apply momentum signals. Winning positions grow larger; underperforming positions shrink. Gold positions have been systematically trimmed since entering the bull market at maximum allocation, with proceeds redeployed across the portfolio.
• •Government Spending Drives Real Assets More Than Inflation: Gold's strongest recent performance occurred in 2023–2024 when inflation was below 3%, not during the 2021–2022 inflation spike. Schassler distinguishes the driver as fiat currency abundance versus asset scarcity — measuring equity and bond returns in gold units reveals significantly weaker real performance than nominal figures suggest.