All-In's 2026 Predictions

What It Covers

The All-In hosts deliver 2026 predictions covering California's proposed wealth tax, Trump's economic boom forecast with 5-6% GDP growth, AI's impact on knowledge workers, potential SpaceX-Tesla merger, and Iran's democratic transformation amid shifting geopolitical dynamics.

Key Questions Answered

• •California Wealth Tax Impact: The proposed ballot initiative would tax unrealized gains at 5% annually, with supervoting shares valued at full market cap rather than liquid value. Larry Page and Sergey Brin's combined 52% Google voting power would create deemed net worth of $1 trillion each versus actual $200 billion, effectively imposing a 25% tax rate and forcing massive asset liquidation.
• •Trump Economic Boom Metrics: US productivity surged 4.9% in strongest reading in six years, with Atlanta Fed forecasting Q4 GDP at 5.4%. Core CPI dropped to 2.6%, 40 basis points below expectations, while job cuts fell 50% month-over-month. Predicted 2026 GDP growth ranges from 4.6% to 6.2%, comparable only to China's coordinated state economy performance under democracy and capitalism.
• •AI Knowledge Worker Paradox: Jevons paradox suggests AI will increase aggregate demand for knowledge workers rather than decrease it. As code generation costs plummet, total software production expands massively. Radiology demonstrates this pattern with increasing radiologist numbers despite AI capabilities, as lower scan costs normalize usage and create more validation work requiring human expertise and interpretation.
• •IP Licensing M&A Workaround: Traditional M&A faces three-year antitrust delays, driving $100 billion-plus IP licensing deals as alternative structure. Google-Character AI, Microsoft, and Nvidia-Croc deals enable immediate talent integration and IP access without regulatory gridlock. This deal type will dominate 2026 as companies with cash-heavy balance sheets face debasement pressure while avoiding prolonged regulatory battles across multiple jurisdictions.
• •Copper Supply Crisis: Global copper demand will exceed supply by 70% by 2040 at current trajectory. Under Trump doctrine emphasizing unilateral national security and hemispheric control, copper becomes critical for data centers, chips, weapons systems, and infrastructure. Limited conductive material alternatives at comparable cost and amenability position copper for parabolic price appreciation as essential element for economic and military independence.