Here’s the Scoop from NBC News: Looking Ahead to Politics in 2026 with Steve Kornacki and Ryan Nobles

What It Covers

NBC correspondents Steve Kornacki and Ryan Nobles analyze the 2026 midterm elections, examining vulnerable House and Senate seats, redistricting impacts, Trump's influence on Republican performance, and Democratic opportunities in traditionally competitive states.

Key Questions Answered

• •Midterm seat dynamics: Republicans hold only a 2-seat cushion in the House. Historical data shows the White House party loses seats in midterms in all but three cases since 1900, each with major asterisks like Great Depression or 9/11.
• •Trump coattail effect: Republican candidates consistently underperform when Trump is not on the ballot. From 2017-2022, Republicans lost or underperformed in every off-year and midterm election, while Trump's 2016 and 2024 ballot presence drove Republican victories.
• •Redistricting impact neutralized: California's Democratic redistricting gains approximately five seats while Texas Republican redistricting adds roughly five seats, effectively canceling each other out rather than creating the expected 10-plus seat Republican cushion initially anticipated.
• •Senate battleground map: Maine's Susan Collins and North Carolina's open seat present Democratic pickup opportunities, but Georgia's Jon Ossoff faces difficult reelection defense. Democrats need to win traditionally red states like Texas or Iowa to secure Senate majority control.