Three Startups Reinventing Critical Infrastructure
Episode
75 min
Read time
3 min
Topics
Health & Wellness, Remote Work, Investing
AI-Generated Summary
Key Takeaways
- ✓Ocean infrastructure defense: Protecting subsea cables and offshore assets requires a layered system: cheap distributed sensor nodes for detection, autonomous underwater vehicles like Ulysses' Mako for intervention, and autonomous surface vehicles like Leviathan for recharging and data relay. Current prime contractor alternatives cost millions per unit with no integrated recovery system, making scalable deployment economically unviable for most operators.
- ✓US-China undersea parity window: China produces hundreds of autonomous underwater vehicles annually—comparable to US output—unlike aerial drones where China produces tens of millions versus US single-digit millions. This near-parity makes the undersea domain the one area where the US can still establish decisive military advantage, particularly as China deploys an Indo-Pacific underwater sensor network and 18,000-kilometer-range autonomous submarines.
- ✓Mining's "death spiral" for tech startups: Point-solution technology vendors face a structural trap in mining: operators run pilots willingly but build only one major facility every five years, so unless a startup's pilot precedes that specific build cycle by exactly five years, commercial deployment is delayed another cycle. Vertical integration—owning the entire process from permitting through refining—is the only viable path to controlling deployment timing.
- ✓Refinery commissioning gap: Western companies take two to four years to commission a minerals refinery to full throughput spec; Chinese operators achieve the same in roughly six months. The gap stems from latency in process feedback loops—large projects aggregate field data on three-week cycles—and from managing high-latency chemical circuits where a single process change takes 24–48 hours to cascade through 20 interconnected unit operations.
- ✓Government demand-side support as capital unlock: Trillions in infrastructure capital avoids mining due to commodity price uncertainty. Off-take agreements with price floors—modeled on the recent DOD deal with MP Materials that included equity participation—can convert that dry powder into active investment. Reducing the NEPA permitting trigger that activates when federal funds enter state-permitted projects would further lower the cost of accessing government capital.
What It Covers
Three a16z portfolio companies—Ulysses (autonomous ocean robots), Mariana Minerals (technology-enabled critical mineral extraction), and Radiant (portable nuclear microreactors)—address gaps in underwater infrastructure, domestic mineral supply chains, and off-grid energy. Each founder outlines the technical, geopolitical, and regulatory obstacles blocking progress in their respective sectors.
Key Questions Answered
- •Ocean infrastructure defense: Protecting subsea cables and offshore assets requires a layered system: cheap distributed sensor nodes for detection, autonomous underwater vehicles like Ulysses' Mako for intervention, and autonomous surface vehicles like Leviathan for recharging and data relay. Current prime contractor alternatives cost millions per unit with no integrated recovery system, making scalable deployment economically unviable for most operators.
- •US-China undersea parity window: China produces hundreds of autonomous underwater vehicles annually—comparable to US output—unlike aerial drones where China produces tens of millions versus US single-digit millions. This near-parity makes the undersea domain the one area where the US can still establish decisive military advantage, particularly as China deploys an Indo-Pacific underwater sensor network and 18,000-kilometer-range autonomous submarines.
- •Mining's "death spiral" for tech startups: Point-solution technology vendors face a structural trap in mining: operators run pilots willingly but build only one major facility every five years, so unless a startup's pilot precedes that specific build cycle by exactly five years, commercial deployment is delayed another cycle. Vertical integration—owning the entire process from permitting through refining—is the only viable path to controlling deployment timing.
- •Refinery commissioning gap: Western companies take two to four years to commission a minerals refinery to full throughput spec; Chinese operators achieve the same in roughly six months. The gap stems from latency in process feedback loops—large projects aggregate field data on three-week cycles—and from managing high-latency chemical circuits where a single process change takes 24–48 hours to cascade through 20 interconnected unit operations.
- •Government demand-side support as capital unlock: Trillions in infrastructure capital avoids mining due to commodity price uncertainty. Off-take agreements with price floors—modeled on the recent DOD deal with MP Materials that included equity participation—can convert that dry powder into active investment. Reducing the NEPA permitting trigger that activates when federal funds enter state-permitted projects would further lower the cost of accessing government capital.
- •Radiant's microreactor product model: Radiant targets off-grid customers paying above $6.50 per gallon diesel equivalent—markets including Hawaii (80% diesel-powered), Northern Europe ($7–9/gallon average), and remote industrial sites. Each one-megawatt trailer-mounted reactor deploys within 48 hours of arrival, runs five years (equivalent to 2 million gallons of diesel), and is produced at a Tennessee facility targeting one unit per week at scale.
Notable Moment
During the Mars colony design work at SpaceX, solar power calculations for Starship fuel production required four simultaneous breakthroughs on a single mission. Elon Musk's suggestion to examine nuclear instead redirected the engineer toward what became Radiant—a company now the only new-design reactor permitted to reach full operational power, on schedule for a 2026 criticality milestone.
Episode Transcript
Last month, a sixteen z American Dynamism Films screened short films about three portfolio companies. Ulysses built mission critical underwater robots. Mariana Minerals applies modern technologies to the critical mineral sector. And Radian seeks to mass produce nuclear microreactors. Now, all three films are available on a sixteen z's YouTube channel. Before you check them out, today's episode highlights previous appearances by all three company founders. First up, Ulysses Will O'Brien joined MTS last April after their latest fundraise. Super exciting. So for the audience, what exactly is Ulysses and what do you do? Yes. At Ulysses, we're building the ocean company. Essentially, if you have a difficult or tough problem to solve in the surface or subsea domain we build autonomous robots that solve that problem. You know the platform is basically autonomous surface vehicles combined with autonomous underwater vehicles built to be kind of cheap enough that you can kind of deploy them at scale over large swathes of the ocean, that they can work together autonomously to kind of solve, yeah, some of the most critical tasks in our oceans. Like what kind of critical tasks? Yeah. Sure. We have, three main verticals that we operate in. We actually began, you know, because we were very interested in problems in the world of, kind of, conservation in nature, and that was, kind of, the first use case we built our autonomous and rotor vehicle Mako four. So that is to doing things like mapping coral reefs, mapping undersea ecosystems, using the vehicles to collect seeds and replant them in new locations. That was kind of like a first and early use case. Then, you know, after that, we kinda got pulled into our second vertical, which is what we call the commercial vertical. The commercial vertical, you know, we're doing things like inspecting offshore wind platforms, inspecting subsea cables, doing repairs on undersea infrastructure. There's, you know, billions of dollars of kind of assets, you know, in their earth oceans owned by energy and telecoms companies. So just basically, you know, protecting them, and and that sort of thing and and, keeping them up to date. And then, you know, naturally as well, you know, we got we got pulled into the world of defense by by the US Navy. They came to us when they heard about our underwater vehicle. They were extremely impressed with some of the specs and very dissatisfied with a lot of the existing options given by the primes, you know, Mako our underwater vehicles truly, like, best in class for its forms after the small to medium size. So for them, you know, they're they're interested in things like how can we, find and, and remove mines, how can we, you know, gather intelligence under waters, and, yeah, how can we do, yeah, other relevant important tasks like protecting ports, arbors, critical infrastructure, that sort of thing. So, yeah, what all done off the kind of same core tech platform, but …
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