Why 2026 Is 'Too Chaotic' to Make Crypto Predictions

With the regulatory burden easing on crypto, it's kind of put up or shut up. Like, we gotta deliver something here that, you know, the average person really wants to use. Privacy is probably in a super trend, and I think that's just because, like, fundamentally, privacy Happy New Year. Welcome to Unchained, your now hyped resource for all things crypto. Happy New Year. Welcome to Unchained, your no hype resource for all things crypto. I'm your host, Laura Shin. Thanks for joining this livestream. Before we get started, a quick reminder, nothing new here on Unchained is investment advice. This show is for informational and entertainment purposes only. My guest and I may hold assets discussed in the show. For more disclosures, visit unchainedcrypto.com. Mantle is launching the Global Hackathon twenty twenty five to accelerate the future of real world assets. With a 150,000 prize pool backing from a $4,000,000,000 treasury New Year. Same extra value meals at McDonald's. So now get two snack wraps, plus fries, and a medium soft drink for just $8. For limited time only, prices and participation may vary. Prices may be higher in Hawaii, Alaska, and California and for delivery. And direct access to Bybit's 7,000,000 plus users. This is the ultimate ecosystem for builders. Today's topic is twenty twenty six crypto predictions. I'm here with Alex Thorne, head of firm wide research at Galaxy Digital, and Ryan, aka AverageJoe's Crypto, research manager at Messari. Welcome, Ryan and Alex. Yeah. Hey, Laura. Hey. What's going on? So I have been asking this question over and over again to multiple guests over multiple episodes, but I feel like when I ask it, it still elicits different answers from people. So I'm curious to know, do you guys think that the four year cycle is dead, or, do you think that we are headed into yet another, a year, bull year, I guess? I'm like, 2025 was sort of mixed in terms of whether it was a bull year. But, you know, some people think that we're, in this in going ahead into a prolonged bear market. So I'm curious. What do you guys think? Alex, why don't we start with you? Do you think 2026 will be a bull or bear market for Bitcoin? I actually think it's too chaotic to predict, frankly, and and refrain from making a Bitcoin price prediction for 2026 so far. I think the four year cycle is empirically broken. Bitcoin had, you know, gone up having year subsequent year and the and the third year, the last two havings. Right? And so now finishing '25 is a technically a not technically, literally a down year would theoretically invalidate that very simple design of this or understanding of this four year cycle. I look. I think one way to just summarize how chaotic the the investing landscape is is to look at options markets, which are pricing basically an equal likelihood of 50 k or 250 k for Bitcoin …