The Chopping Block: 2025 Winners & Losers + 2026 Predictions - Ep. 998
Episode
68 min
Read time
2 min
Topics
Investing, Fundraising & VC, Leadership
AI-Generated Summary
Key Takeaways
- ✓Prediction Markets Breakthrough: Polymarket and Kalshi achieved mainstream adoption in 2025, appearing in media coverage and a South Park episode, transitioning from fringe category to constantly cited mainstream tool despite lower volumes compared to perpetual DEXs.
- ✓Altcoin Triple Whammy: Altcoins faced poor performance with no alt season materializing, new launches failing to break top 100 except Hype, and token holders getting shafted in acquisitions while equity holders captured value, creating fundamental misalignment.
- ✓Crypto M&A Consolidation: Equity-based crypto companies became 2025's winners through regulatory clarity and institutional interest, with major acquisitions including Bridge, Privy, Derabit, Hidden Road, and Echo totaling over 10 billion dollars, reshaping the competitive landscape completely.
- ✓Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Failure: Despite initial optimism, the US strategic Bitcoin reserve became 2025's biggest disappointment, devolving from ambitious sovereign Bitcoin strategy to merely holding seized assets, with government even violating executive order by selling samurai wallet Bitcoin.
- ✓Perpetual DEX Market Share Growth: On-chain derivatives platforms including perpetuals and prediction markets gained significant traction, with users finally moving funds from centralized exchanges despite security challenges, demonstrating real adoption of decentralized trading infrastructure at scale.
What It Covers
The Chopping Block reviews 2025's crypto winners and losers, from prediction markets and equity consolidation to altcoin struggles and Gary Gensler's dismantled legacy, then makes bold predictions for 2026 including Bitcoin targets and equity perpetuals growth.
Key Questions Answered
- •Prediction Markets Breakthrough: Polymarket and Kalshi achieved mainstream adoption in 2025, appearing in media coverage and a South Park episode, transitioning from fringe category to constantly cited mainstream tool despite lower volumes compared to perpetual DEXs.
- •Altcoin Triple Whammy: Altcoins faced poor performance with no alt season materializing, new launches failing to break top 100 except Hype, and token holders getting shafted in acquisitions while equity holders captured value, creating fundamental misalignment.
- •Crypto M&A Consolidation: Equity-based crypto companies became 2025's winners through regulatory clarity and institutional interest, with major acquisitions including Bridge, Privy, Derabit, Hidden Road, and Echo totaling over 10 billion dollars, reshaping the competitive landscape completely.
- •Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Failure: Despite initial optimism, the US strategic Bitcoin reserve became 2025's biggest disappointment, devolving from ambitious sovereign Bitcoin strategy to merely holding seized assets, with government even violating executive order by selling samurai wallet Bitcoin.
- •Perpetual DEX Market Share Growth: On-chain derivatives platforms including perpetuals and prediction markets gained significant traction, with users finally moving funds from centralized exchanges despite security challenges, demonstrating real adoption of decentralized trading infrastructure at scale.
Notable Moment
Circle's IPO shocked the industry by briefly flipping Coinbase in market cap, surging from skeptical 4 billion dollar valuations to 70 billion dollars as investors bet on stablecoins winning finance, representing the most dramatic public company run in recent crypto history.
Episode Transcript
Don't curse. Cool. Alright. I would never. Hello, everybody. Welcome to the chopping block. Boom. Not a dividend. It's a tale of two fun. Now your losses are on someone else's balance sheet. Generally speaking, airdrops are kind of pointless anyways. I manage trading firms who are very involved. Alec.eat is the ultimate possible. DeFi protocols are the antidote to this problem. Hello, everyone. Welcome to the Shopping blog. Every couple weeks, the four of us get together and give the industry insiders perspective on the crypto topics of the day. Quick intros. First, we got Tom, the DeFi maven and master of memes. Hello, everyone. Actually, we got Robert, the crypto connoisseur and czar of Super State. Happy New Year. Actually, got Tarun, the giga brain, and the grand poobah at gauntlet. Yo. Happy New Year. And I'm Asib, the head hype man at Dragonfly. We're early stage investors in crypto, but I want to caveat that nothing we say here is investment advice, legal advice, or even life advice. Please see chopping blocks at x y z for more disclosures. So boys, it is a new year. It is now 2026. I know Robert loves to celebrate with profanity, so I thought we'd put put a little bit of, you know, like curveball in there. I am anti profanity. Are you anti profanity, actually? Yes. Listen. I have young kids. I try to have a profanity free lifestyle and house, so no profanities. I did not know that. Is that do you, like, knockers on the show? Like, do No. I I do not curse on the show. You do knockers on the show? We can play back the tape. We'll see if I'm somewhat wait. Wait. Now someone's gonna I don't think I'm watching the show, Robert. Someone's gonna get the highlight reel of every time I've, like Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Alright. Are you are you trying to put money on this? You wanna put money on this? I won't put money on this, but I tried it. Especially New Year's resolution. On the show. All of us. Okay. The young young ushers, we're gonna get a mix tape. Turned into a New Year's resolution. We're gonna get we're gonna get a mix tape of all the time that Robert is cursed on the show. We've had a special episode. Just Robert cursing set to music. I love that. Anyway okay. So we're it's been another year, which means another year of winners and losers and notables for 2025. So for those of us who remember, a lot of ups and downs, we started in the year with the election, the AI boom, you know, Ethereum going through its ups and downs, meme coins. It's been a crazy year, but we are going to, as the chopping block team, look back on a year of episodes of ups and downs and tell you who were the biggest winners, losers, surprise, best new mechanism, best meme, best or …
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“Polymarket and Kalshi achieved mainstream adoption in 2025, appearing in media coverage and a South Park episode, transitioning from fringe category to constantly cited mainstream tool”
“Polymarket and Kalshi achieved mainstream adoption in 2025, appearing in media coverage and a South Park episode, transitioning from fringe category to constantly cited mainstream tool”
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