DAT Stocks Are on Sale. Are They a Buy? Plus, Why Crypto Is Dead - Ep.985

What It Covers

Digital asset treasury stocks trading at massive discounts below their crypto holdings' value. Steve Ehrlich analyzes whether these companies represent buying opportunities and examines structural challenges preventing recovery to fair value.

Key Questions Answered

• •MNAV equilibrium: Digital asset treasury companies should trade at net asset value multiples around one, similar to closed-end funds with management fees. Companies holding productive assets like Ethereum may sustain slight premiums through staking yields of 2.7-3%, while Bitcoin-focused firms face harder valuation justification.
• •Share buyback limitations: Companies announce large buyback programs like Semler Gaming's $1.5 billion or ETHzilla's $250 million, but actual purchases remain minimal. These buybacks cannot offset the massive share dilution created during SPAC mergers, making them ineffective at closing valuation gaps to net asset value.
• •GBTC comparison flaws: Unlike Grayscale Bitcoin Trust's discount that closed when converting to an ETF with authorized participants enabling arbitrage, digital asset treasuries lack clear mechanisms to force convergence. No timeline exists for recovery, and PIPE share lockup expirations create additional selling pressure.
• •Crypto native saturation: The market of users willing to participate in high-risk, chronically online crypto culture has reached saturation. Future growth requires targeting middle-class users who understand technology benefits but reject the speculative culture, similar to Robinhood's diversified product approach beyond pure speculation.