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Unchained

Bits + Bips: What Could Spark the Next Crypto Bull Cycle? - Ep. 980

59 min episode · 2 min read
·
Elizabeth Kirby,Chris Perkins,Ram Alawalaya

Episode

59 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Productivity, Investing, Crypto & Web3

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • Legislative Reality: Market structure bills face delays due to complexity and competing interests like Citadel opposing DeFi provisions. Modularizing legislation may be necessary, but SEC and CFTC are providing regulatory clarity through no-action letters and guidance independently of Congress.
  • Institutional Barriers: Traditional financial institutions require permissioned blockchain infrastructure and established intermediaries for custody and prime brokerage before committing capital. Regulatory certainty remains the primary blocker preventing major banks from deploying resources despite progress from crypto-native providers filling gaps.
  • Blockchain Competition: Canton Network targets institutional use cases with permissioned privacy features, directly competing with Ethereum for TradFi adoption. Solana focuses on retail with high throughput for decentralized trading. Multiple specialized chains will coexist serving different customer segments rather than one winner.
  • Market Dynamics: Crypto faces capital rotation into value stocks with low PE ratios and cash flows as momentum shifts away from high-beta assets. Institutional adoption requires oversold conditions and completion of value stock rotation before next bull cycle begins, with retail still recovering from liquidation losses.

What It Covers

Senate Banking Committee delays crypto market structure legislation into 2025. JPMorgan launches tokenized money market fund on Ethereum. Discussion covers institutional adoption barriers, blockchain competition between Ethereum, Canton, and Solana, and current bearish crypto market dynamics.

Key Questions Answered

  • Legislative Reality: Market structure bills face delays due to complexity and competing interests like Citadel opposing DeFi provisions. Modularizing legislation may be necessary, but SEC and CFTC are providing regulatory clarity through no-action letters and guidance independently of Congress.
  • Institutional Barriers: Traditional financial institutions require permissioned blockchain infrastructure and established intermediaries for custody and prime brokerage before committing capital. Regulatory certainty remains the primary blocker preventing major banks from deploying resources despite progress from crypto-native providers filling gaps.
  • Blockchain Competition: Canton Network targets institutional use cases with permissioned privacy features, directly competing with Ethereum for TradFi adoption. Solana focuses on retail with high throughput for decentralized trading. Multiple specialized chains will coexist serving different customer segments rather than one winner.
  • Market Dynamics: Crypto faces capital rotation into value stocks with low PE ratios and cash flows as momentum shifts away from high-beta assets. Institutional adoption requires oversold conditions and completion of value stock rotation before next bull cycle begins, with retail still recovering from liquidation losses.

Notable Moment

The Biden SEC systematically failed to prevent major crypto frauds including FTX, TerraForm Labs, Celsius, and Three Arrows Capital while pursuing enforcement against projects like decentralized libraries and NFT collections that caused no user harm, revealing misaligned regulatory priorities.

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Episode Transcript

Ethereum, I agree with Chris' point. It is in a way like Traficchain. It is Traficchain. It's designed for that. It's got the Lindy effect. It's got the history. The Biden SEC systematically missed or failed to interdict every single major crypto fraud one after another. Like, they did not get FTX. They did not get TerraForm Labs. They did not get Celsius. They did not get three arrows capital. When you have one of your biggest competitors, led by a guy named Larry Fink saying, I'm tokenizing everything. Well, he probably has a reason for doing that. Welcome, everyone, to yet another episode of Bits and Bips where we explore how crypto and macro collide one basis point at a time. I am still your host despite the best efforts of the SEC, Austin Kibble, high scholar of zero knowledge group, and I'm here with my usual two coconspirators, Chris Perkins, the golden hand of coin fund, and Ram Alawalaya, Maestro of Wealth, the head of Illumina. And today, we're joined with Elizabeth Kirby, the high lady of market structure at Tradeweb. And for those of you who are super crypto natives and unfamiliar with Tradeweb, I will summarize them only as thus. A huge amount of trading volume goes through Tradeweb. They are actually genuinely part of market's infrastructure. So on that note, we have a bunch of things to discuss today, but I have to give you some disclaimers first. One, nothing we say here is investment advice. Check unchangedcrypto.com bits and bips for more disclosures. And second of all, a quick word from sponsors who make the show possible. Mantle is launching the Global Hackathon twenty twenty five to accelerate the future of real world assets. With a 150,000 prize pool backing from a $4,000,000,000 treasury and direct access to Bybit's 7,000,000 plus users, this is the ultimate ecosystem for builders. Alright. Let's start with some breaking news. So in our lead up and discussion of what we're gonna talk about today, news dropped that the Senate Banking Committee, quote, unquote, has run out of time to mark up market structure legislation this year, and the hearing will now be pushed into the new year. I know we've discussed this once or twice and expressed maybe some skepticism about timeliness in the past, but I'll start. Chris, what do you think is going on here? Yeah. I think both you and I, Austin, I don't wanna say I told you so, but I told you so. Like, we knew this was way too complex. Genius was, like, next to impossible to get across the board. Now everyone's freaking out that, you know, there's this whole interest issue going on. It's such a difficult piece of legislation. It's not even funny. And it's no surprise to me that it's getting pushed. We talked about some of the issues that were holding it up. This maniacal focus on on Donald Trump ethics that seems to be stopping everything. …

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