Raging Moderates: Trump’s Iran War Plan Falls Apart as Allies Walk Away

What It Covers

Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov analyze Trump's Iran military campaign unraveling as NATO allies refuse to commit warships, while domestic promises on immigration and affordability collide with farm bankruptcies up 46%, diesel over $5 per gallon, and the SAVE Act threatening to disenfranchise millions of eligible voters.

Key Questions Answered

• •Coalition warfare: Bush Sr. built a 35-nation coalition for Desert Storm, secured UN authorization, and had allies cover $54 billion of the $61 billion tab. The current Iran campaign involves only the US and Israel, no UN mandate, no allied cost-sharing, and no prior consultation with Gulf states whose bases absorbed retaliatory Iranian strikes.
• •Economic exposure: Diesel surpassing $5 per gallon directly disrupts trucking, agriculture, and housing. Farm bankruptcies rose 46% in 2025 per the American Farm Bureau Federation. Fertilizer prices climbed 77% partly because 30% of global fertilizer supply transits the Strait of Hormuz. Over 70% of Americans say the administration is not addressing cost-of-living concerns.
• •Iran escalation signals: Iran publicly warned nine days before the US-Israeli strikes that all regional bases and assets of hostile forces were legitimate targets, sending formal notice to the UN on February 19. A former Trump nuclear negotiator published a Foreign Affairs piece titled "Why Iran Will Escalate" four days before the attack, contradicting claims the retaliation was unforeseeable.
• •SAVE Act disenfranchisement risk: The proposed voter registration law requires a passport or birth certificate as proof of citizenship. Roughly 50% of Americans lack passports, disproportionately Republicans. The requirement creates documented barriers for college students, recently married women, adoptees, and Native Americans whose tribal IDs lack the date format the bill mandates for validity.
• •Strategic vs. operational performance: US forces have damaged over 30 Iranian minelaying vessels and degraded missile launch rates from roughly 900 on day one to 10-14 daily, demonstrating operational effectiveness. However, attacking oil infrastructure signals the administration has abandoned regime change as an objective, since a successor government would need that infrastructure intact to stabilize economically.