No Mercy / No Malice: Rare Earths

January 10, 2026

16 min episode · 2 min read

Episode

16 min

Read time

2 min

AI-Generated Summary

Published Jan 11, 2026

Key Takeaways

✓China's monopoly leverage: Beijing restricted rare earth exports to Japan in 2010 over maritime disputes and to US in April 2025 over tariffs, demonstrating willingness to weaponize supply chains for geopolitical advantage.
✓US extraction timeline crisis: American mining firms require 29 years average from discovery to operations, ranking second-to-last globally. Halleck Creek Wyoming deposit contains 2.3 billion metric tons but faces decades-long development timeline.
✓Strategic resource history: Rome built Via Salaria road network for salt trade, US seized 100 Guano Islands for fertilizer in 1856, and synthetic rubber production during WWII proved more critical than Manhattan Project.

What It Covers

China controls 70% of rare earth mining and 90% of refining, creating strategic vulnerability for US defense and technology sectors similar to 1973 oil crisis.

Key Questions Answered

•China's monopoly leverage: Beijing restricted rare earth exports to Japan in 2010 over maritime disputes and to US in April 2025 over tariffs, demonstrating willingness to weaponize supply chains for geopolitical advantage.
•US extraction timeline crisis: American mining firms require 29 years average from discovery to operations, ranking second-to-last globally. Halleck Creek Wyoming deposit contains 2.3 billion metric tons but faces decades-long development timeline.
•Strategic resource history: Rome built Via Salaria road network for salt trade, US seized 100 Guano Islands for fertilizer in 1856, and synthetic rubber production during WWII proved more critical than Manhattan Project.

Notable Moment

US forces extracted Venezuelan president Maduro in 35 minutes, accomplishing more than Russia achieved in Ukraine over 35 months, though Venezuela produces no fentanyl and has unprofitable heavy crude.

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