The Parallels of Past and Present in Finance - Mark Higgins | #594
Episode
59 min
Read time
2 min
Topics
Productivity, Investing, Leadership
AI-Generated Summary
Key Takeaways
- ✓Historical Debt Management: For 150 years, The United States followed Hamilton's principle of borrowing only during wars then paying down debt during peace. Since the 1960s, continuous deficits have pushed debt-to-GDP above World War II levels without crisis justification, eroding future borrowing capacity.
- ✓Market Efficiency Timeline: Evidence of stock market efficiency emerged by the late 1920s, documented in a 1939 SEC report. Active management persisted primarily because after 1933-1934 securities laws banned market manipulation and insider trading, leaving fee-based active management as Wall Street's only remaining revenue source.
- ✓Private Markets Accounting Loophole: Funds purchase secondary LP interests at 40% discounts then immediately mark them up to last reported NAV the next day. Hamilton Lane changed compensation rules to collect incentive fees on these paper markups before realization, creating illusory returns that mislead retail investors.
- ✓Inflation Containment Failure: The 1970s inflation spiral occurred because the Fed repeatedly eased before fully containing price increases, causing each resurgence to reach higher levels. Current policy risks repeating this pattern with headline inflation at 2.7% and core at 3.1%, requiring deeper recessions to eventually control.
What It Covers
Mark Higgins examines 230 years of US financial history, revealing how debt crises, insider trading, market manipulation, and speculative bubbles repeat across centuries, with current private markets exhibiting alarming parallels to past fraudulent schemes.
Key Questions Answered
- •Historical Debt Management: For 150 years, The United States followed Hamilton's principle of borrowing only during wars then paying down debt during peace. Since the 1960s, continuous deficits have pushed debt-to-GDP above World War II levels without crisis justification, eroding future borrowing capacity.
- •Market Efficiency Timeline: Evidence of stock market efficiency emerged by the late 1920s, documented in a 1939 SEC report. Active management persisted primarily because after 1933-1934 securities laws banned market manipulation and insider trading, leaving fee-based active management as Wall Street's only remaining revenue source.
- •Private Markets Accounting Loophole: Funds purchase secondary LP interests at 40% discounts then immediately mark them up to last reported NAV the next day. Hamilton Lane changed compensation rules to collect incentive fees on these paper markups before realization, creating illusory returns that mislead retail investors.
- •Inflation Containment Failure: The 1970s inflation spiral occurred because the Fed repeatedly eased before fully containing price increases, causing each resurgence to reach higher levels. Current policy risks repeating this pattern with headline inflation at 2.7% and core at 3.1%, requiring deeper recessions to eventually control.
Notable Moment
Higgins reveals Hetty Green, a woman from the whaling industry, was likely the best investor in US financial history. She predicted the 1907 panic a year in advance and was an original investor in Hathaway Manufacturing, which became Berkshire Hathaway.
Episode Transcript
Welcome to the Meb Faber show, where the focus is on helping you grow and preserve your wealth. Join us as we discuss the craft of investing and uncover new and profitable ideas, all to help you grow wealthier and wiser. Better investing starts here. Matt Faber is the cofounder and chief investment officer at Cambria Investment Management. Due to industry regulations, he will not discuss any of Cambria's funds on this podcast. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Cambria Investment Management or its affiliates. For more information, visit cambriainvestments.com. Today's show is sponsored by Cambria. Do you hold legacy investment positions with significant gains? What if you could transition into an ETF without facing a large tax bill? You can with the three fifty one ETF exchange. Here's how it works. Investors contribute stocks or other securities to a newly formed ETF in exchange for ETF shares. As long as the special rules and diversification requirements are met, the investor is essentially able to seed the launch of the ETF without an immediate taxable event. Because ETFs typically don't distribute any capital gains, investors don't face taxes until they sell their ETF shares, allowing for better control over the timing of the tax event. Are you ready to explore a three fifty one ETF exchange? Visit cambriafunds.com forward /351 to take the next step in innovative, tax savvy investing with Cambria today. Cambria Investment Management l p, Cambria is a registered investment adviser. Information set forth herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial investment, tax, or legal advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments are subject to risks, including the risk of loss of principle. Welcome back, everybody. It feels like summer's winding down. I don't know what happened. I feel like as a kid, summers were, like, three, four months, and now they feel like they're, like, two. Anyway, beautiful time here in SoCal. We got a great episode today. Our guest is Mark Higgins. Mark is a senior VP at IFA Institutional where he specializes in advisory services to institutional plans like endowments, foundations, pension plans, the big money, the real money. He's also the author of Investing in US Financial History, this big doorstop here. You guys know I love it just from the title, Understanding the Past to Forecast the Future. It's one of my favorite books on financial history. And more importantly, he's a fellow Wahoo, another UVA alum on the podcast. Mark, welcome to the show. Thank you for having me, Matt. Where do we find you today? I am in Portland, Oregon, which is where I live. I'm in the basement where behind me is just a small sample of the note cards that I wallpapered my wall with to track all of the important events, quotes, things like that, from about two thirty years of financial history. So I often thought I …
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“She predicted the 1907 panic a year in advance and was an original investor in Hathaway Manufacturing, which became Berkshire Hathaway.”
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