Transitional injustice: Syria one year after Assad

What It Covers

One year after Assad's fall, Syria's new leader Ahmed al Shara achieves diplomatic success internationally but faces mounting domestic challenges including sectarian violence, economic hardship, centralized authoritarian governance, and failure to deliver transitional justice.

Key Questions Answered

• •Centralized Power Structure: Al Shara builds a heavily centralized state with shadow governments bypassing ministries, including a mysterious Office of Political Affairs that vets election candidates and controls civil society, creating embryonic authoritarian structures reminiscent of the previous dictatorship.
• •Alawite Exclusion Risk: One-third of Syria's population are minorities completely isolated from the new government. In Homs, where Alawites comprise one-third of residents, zero Alawite MPs represent the city. This political exclusion feeds potential insurgency among 25,000 Alawite refugees in Lebanon, including 4,000-5,000 former military officers.
• •Economic Deterioration: Despite sanctions relief, hundreds of thousands of government employees lost salaries, subsidies were cut, and reconstruction remains nonexistent. Sanctions relief produces no material improvement on the ground, making daily life harder for most Syrians than under Assad's final year.
• •Transitional Justice Failure: Assad's war criminals enjoy exile in Russia, Iran, and Lebanon while some regime officials were recruited into the new government. This lack of accountability for atrocities fuels sectarian revenge killings and daily violence in Homs, Hama, and Aleppo countryside.