Chapo, Mayo, Mencho: another Mexican kingpin falls

What It Covers

This episode covers three topics: the capture and death of Mexican cartel leader El Mencho and the fragmentation risk facing the Jalisco New Generation Cartel; how four years of war have reshaped daily life inside Russia; and what a 120,000-runner Strava dataset reveals about optimal marathon training strategy.

Key Questions Answered

• •Cartel fragmentation risk: When a cartel leader with a vertical command structure is eliminated, fragmentation and internal conflict typically follow — sometimes after a delay of weeks or months. The Sinaloa Cartel's 2024 arrest triggered calm before full-scale war erupted in September. Mexican authorities must monitor and suppress any early signs of CJNG splintering before violence escalates.
• •Mexico's security-World Cup pressure: Guadalajara, capital of Jalisco state where El Mencho was captured, hosts a World Cup match in four months. President Scheinbaum faces simultaneous pressure from Donald Trump to dismantle cartels and from the international community to ensure safety. The next 16 weeks represent a critical window for stabilizing Jalisco's security environment.
• •Russia's dual economy: Russia's economy now operates in two distinct sectors — the military-industrial complex driving GDP growth through producing goods designed to be destroyed, and a civilian services sector being drained of resources. Since 2022, roughly 500 Russian companies have been expropriated, eliminating property rights and making meaningful private investment functionally impossible.
• •Russia's recruitment cost: Russia spends approximately 2.5% of GDP — equivalent to its entire federal budget deficit — on military recruitment. Each new recruit receives a one-time bonus of roughly $35,000 plus $2,000 monthly. Recruitment is becoming harder and more expensive as losses mount, creating a structural fiscal pressure that compounds existing economic unsustainability.
• •Marathon training volume over intensity: A Strava study of 120,000 runners found that the fastest marathoners (finishing in 2–2.5 hours) ran roughly three times more weekly distance than slower runners, with almost all extra volume done at low intensity. Additionally, extending the pre-race taper from one week to three weeks improves marathon performance by approximately 3%.