Chapo, Mayo, Mencho: another Mexican kingpin falls
Episode
24 min
Read time
2 min
Topics
Career Growth, Investing, Design & UX
AI-Generated Summary
Key Takeaways
- ✓Cartel fragmentation risk: When a cartel leader with a vertical command structure is eliminated, fragmentation and internal conflict typically follow — sometimes after a delay of weeks or months. The Sinaloa Cartel's 2024 arrest triggered calm before full-scale war erupted in September. Mexican authorities must monitor and suppress any early signs of CJNG splintering before violence escalates.
- ✓Mexico's security-World Cup pressure: Guadalajara, capital of Jalisco state where El Mencho was captured, hosts a World Cup match in four months. President Scheinbaum faces simultaneous pressure from Donald Trump to dismantle cartels and from the international community to ensure safety. The next 16 weeks represent a critical window for stabilizing Jalisco's security environment.
- ✓Russia's dual economy: Russia's economy now operates in two distinct sectors — the military-industrial complex driving GDP growth through producing goods designed to be destroyed, and a civilian services sector being drained of resources. Since 2022, roughly 500 Russian companies have been expropriated, eliminating property rights and making meaningful private investment functionally impossible.
- ✓Russia's recruitment cost: Russia spends approximately 2.5% of GDP — equivalent to its entire federal budget deficit — on military recruitment. Each new recruit receives a one-time bonus of roughly $35,000 plus $2,000 monthly. Recruitment is becoming harder and more expensive as losses mount, creating a structural fiscal pressure that compounds existing economic unsustainability.
- ✓Marathon training volume over intensity: A Strava study of 120,000 runners found that the fastest marathoners (finishing in 2–2.5 hours) ran roughly three times more weekly distance than slower runners, with almost all extra volume done at low intensity. Additionally, extending the pre-race taper from one week to three weeks improves marathon performance by approximately 3%.
What It Covers
This episode covers three topics: the capture and death of Mexican cartel leader El Mencho and the fragmentation risk facing the Jalisco New Generation Cartel; how four years of war have reshaped daily life inside Russia; and what a 120,000-runner Strava dataset reveals about optimal marathon training strategy.
Key Questions Answered
- •Cartel fragmentation risk: When a cartel leader with a vertical command structure is eliminated, fragmentation and internal conflict typically follow — sometimes after a delay of weeks or months. The Sinaloa Cartel's 2024 arrest triggered calm before full-scale war erupted in September. Mexican authorities must monitor and suppress any early signs of CJNG splintering before violence escalates.
- •Mexico's security-World Cup pressure: Guadalajara, capital of Jalisco state where El Mencho was captured, hosts a World Cup match in four months. President Scheinbaum faces simultaneous pressure from Donald Trump to dismantle cartels and from the international community to ensure safety. The next 16 weeks represent a critical window for stabilizing Jalisco's security environment.
- •Russia's dual economy: Russia's economy now operates in two distinct sectors — the military-industrial complex driving GDP growth through producing goods designed to be destroyed, and a civilian services sector being drained of resources. Since 2022, roughly 500 Russian companies have been expropriated, eliminating property rights and making meaningful private investment functionally impossible.
- •Russia's recruitment cost: Russia spends approximately 2.5% of GDP — equivalent to its entire federal budget deficit — on military recruitment. Each new recruit receives a one-time bonus of roughly $35,000 plus $2,000 monthly. Recruitment is becoming harder and more expensive as losses mount, creating a structural fiscal pressure that compounds existing economic unsustainability.
- •Marathon training volume over intensity: A Strava study of 120,000 runners found that the fastest marathoners (finishing in 2–2.5 hours) ran roughly three times more weekly distance than slower runners, with almost all extra volume done at low intensity. Additionally, extending the pre-race taper from one week to three weeks improves marathon performance by approximately 3%.
Notable Moment
Russia's GPS navigation systems in civilian cars are routinely disrupted by military spoofing technology designed to confuse Ukrainian drones — a detail that illustrates how the war has invisibly penetrated ordinary Russian daily life in ways that are easy to overlook from the outside.
Episode Transcript
The Economist. Hello and welcome to The Intelligence from The Economist. I'm your host, Jason Palmer. Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world. After a look yesterday at the impact of four years of war on Ukraine, today we get a rare look inside Russia. And we have some surprising advice for runners. You might think that if you want a good marathon time, the simple aim is to get faster and faster when training. We dig into piles of data to find a more nuanced plan. First up though A Mexican journalist can't even get the question out before president Claudia Schoenbaum cuts in with the answer. What guarantees are there that the World Cup will happen at this venue? All of them. All the guarantees, she replies. It's a fair question. On Sunday, a notorious drug lord named Nimesio Ruben Oseguera Cervantes and known simply as El Mencho was captured and mortally wounded. In scenes that Mexico has seen before, that sparked grotesque violence on the streets. Not the kind of press that one of the World Cup host countries wants right about now, and miss Schoenbaum wants to calm nerves. But even though things seem to have quietened down for the moment, experience suggests that the violence is not over. El Mincho was the head of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, which is one of the two biggest cartels in Mexico. And it's, in fact, the one with the biggest national spread, most brutal, and incredibly diversified in terms of what it's into. Sarah Burke is our Mexico City bureau chief. He was a 59 year old former policeman who has headed this cartel since the start and probably Mexico's most wanted person. But this killing threatens to have a very long term impact on the country for good or, essentially, for bad as well. Well, the for bad for now is that there seems to be widespread violence since his killing. He was captured and died on Sunday, and immediately violence broke out after that. So at least 15 to 20 states, there was roadblocks, there was torching of buses, airlines had to cancel flights, people who were visiting the tourist resort of Puerto Vallarta, which is in Jalisco state where he was captured, were told to shelter in place. So a huge amount of violence across the country. By Monday, things had calmed down quite a lot. And by Tuesday, things were getting somewhat back to normal. But the concern is this is not over yet. Because what happens, and we've seen in the past in Mexico and in other countries, is that when you take out the head of a cartel, often you get fragmentation, internecine conflict, and that ends up generating more violence. So while everyone thinks this is a huge success taking out El Mencho, which undoubtedly it is, I mean, it's a huge coup for the Mexicans and also pleases the Americans, this could generate …
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“A Strava study of 120,000 runners found that the fastest marathoners (finishing in 2–2.5 hours) ran roughly three times more weekly distance than slower runners, with almost all extra volume done at low intensity.”
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