A world-changing war: four years in Ukraine

What It Covers

On the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion, Economist editors Edward Carr, Shashank Joshi, and Ukraine correspondent Oliver Carroll assess how the war has reshaped Ukrainian society, transformed modern warfare, fractured transatlantic alliances, and created a Sino-Russian defense partnership with long-term global consequences.

Key Questions Answered

• •European Rearmament Scale: European defense spending has risen 50% since the full-scale invasion began, with equipment procurement up 40% year-on-year, ammunition shell production multiplied sixfold from pre-war levels, and defense R&D surging. Policymakers and defense analysts should treat this rearmament as structural, not temporary, when modeling European security architecture for the next decade.
• •Transparent Battlefield Doctrine: Ukraine validates the "transparent battlefield" concept — sensors, drones, and cheap precision weapons now make large force concentrations suicidal. Neither side can mass troops without aerial detection and destruction. Military planners should prioritize small dismounted infantry formations, commercial satellite communications like Starlink, and wire-guided missile systems over conventional armored maneuver warfare.
• •Sino-Russian Defense Dependency: Russia's war effort depends structurally on Chinese components, North Korean ammunition, and Iranian drone designs. Analysts estimate Russian defense industry would halt within a short period if China cut component supplies. Western policymakers should treat this Sino-Russian-Iranian-North Korean defense industrial complex as a unified strategic challenge, not four separate bilateral relationships.
• •Ukraine's Post-War Deterrence Asset: Ukraine has independently developed long-range drones and cruise missiles already striking Russian oil refineries and energy infrastructure deep inside Russian territory — capabilities many NATO members lack. Defense planners assessing post-conflict Ukrainian security should recognize this indigenous precision-strike force as the central pillar of any credible deterrence posture against future Russian aggression.
• •Peace Deal Structural Barriers: Two obstacles block any durable ceasefire: territory and security guarantees. Putin requires internationally recognized control of claimed territories he failed to capture militarily, while Ukraine cannot cede ground vital to its own defense. Any security guarantee strong enough to satisfy Ukraine is unacceptable to Moscow, creating a structurally irresolvable negotiating gap under current conditions.