How much is the Iran war costing us?
Episode
8 min
Read time
2 min
Topics
Health & Wellness, Personal Finance, Crypto & Web3
AI-Generated Summary
Key Takeaways
- ✓Hidden munitions budgeting: The Pentagon's war costs fall outside its regular budget, requiring separate Congressional approval each time munitions are expended. This structural gap means initial cost estimates are systematically low and spending authorization lags behind actual battlefield expenditure.
- ✓Veterans' liability gap: Disability benefits already promised to veterans from previous conflicts total $7.3 trillion, excluding healthcare costs entirely. Any new conflict adds substantially to this multi-decade obligation, making veterans' care the single largest underestimated long-term cost of military engagement.
- ✓Debt-financed warfare risk: Since 9/11, the U.S. finances wars entirely through deficit spending rather than the historical mix of debt, taxes, and budget cuts. Harvard's Linda Bilmes argues this removes public accountability and shifts full financial burden onto future generations without democratic buy-in.
- ✓Baseline budget ratchet effect: War conditions enable presidents to secure permanent Pentagon budget increases. Trump's requested $1.5 trillion military budget, 50% above current levels, becomes easier to pass during active conflict, and once embedded in baseline spending, those increases rarely reverse.
What It Covers
Operation Epic Fury's daily costs range from $900M to $1.9B, but economists Linda Bilmes and Nita Crawford warn visible expenses represent only a fraction of total war costs spanning decades through veterans' care, debt interest, and environmental damage.
Key Questions Answered
- •Hidden munitions budgeting: The Pentagon's war costs fall outside its regular budget, requiring separate Congressional approval each time munitions are expended. This structural gap means initial cost estimates are systematically low and spending authorization lags behind actual battlefield expenditure.
- •Veterans' liability gap: Disability benefits already promised to veterans from previous conflicts total $7.3 trillion, excluding healthcare costs entirely. Any new conflict adds substantially to this multi-decade obligation, making veterans' care the single largest underestimated long-term cost of military engagement.
- •Debt-financed warfare risk: Since 9/11, the U.S. finances wars entirely through deficit spending rather than the historical mix of debt, taxes, and budget cuts. Harvard's Linda Bilmes argues this removes public accountability and shifts full financial burden onto future generations without democratic buy-in.
- •Baseline budget ratchet effect: War conditions enable presidents to secure permanent Pentagon budget increases. Trump's requested $1.5 trillion military budget, 50% above current levels, becomes easier to pass during active conflict, and once embedded in baseline spending, those increases rarely reverse.
Notable Moment
The Bush administration publicly estimated the Iraq War would cost $50 billion. Brown University's Nita Crawford calculated the actual figure reached $3 trillion — sixty times higher — a pattern economists say repeats across virtually every modern conflict.
Episode Transcript
NPR. This is the indicator from Planet Money. I'm Ricky Mulvey. And I'm Darienne Woods. Lately on the show, we've been discussing some of the broader economic costs of The US Israel war with Iran, and those expenses vary day by day. Yeah. Finding out how much money war costs is a difficult task in the moment. The Center for Strategic and International Studies first estimated that the early days of Operation Epic Fury cost roughly $900,000,000 per day. More recently, The New York Times reported that Pentagon officials estimated the cost to be more than twice that number, about $1,900,000,000 per day. And even these numbers don't tell the whole story. These estimates are the tip of an iceberg. Today on the show, we're looking at the costs of Operation Epic Fury. Why post nine eleven wars cost trillions of dollars more than early estimates suggested, and the underestimated expenses that American taxpayers will be paying now and far into the future. That's all after the break. Wars are expensive, and it's difficult to find out just how much one costs in the middle of it. Mark Gansian is a retired US marine colonel. He's also done budgeting for the Department of Defense and helped come up with that daily $900,000,000 or so estimate, but that number is already significantly higher. The munitions mix appears to have been a little, richer than we had first estimated, and the damage to the bases is higher than we had estimated. He's talking about the types of bombs The US has been dropping and The US bases that have been hit in The Gulf. And here's an interesting thing. Those bombs don't actually count in the Department of Defense's current budget. After The US drops a bomb in Iran, the military says that's not a part of our regular budget, and now we need to immediately pay to replace these bombs we just dropped. They'll need to go back to Congress to ask for more money regardless of how long, the war goes. So one reason this war is already expensive is that many of the costs are not already budgeted for. But Mark says that while the costs of the first days in Iran were high, he expects the daily cost to go down now that The US has established air superiority. The military can drop cheaper bombs from airplanes versus launching long range precision guided weapons. Still, Linda Bilmes is worried that the cost of war in Iran will not be controlled, and she thinks that the long term costs could be dramatic. Linda has studied how The US pays for post nine eleven wars as a public finance professor at the Harvard Kennedy School. This is very similar territory, not only to the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, but to wars dating back thousands of years where those who initiate them tend to be, optimistic about how long it will take and tend to significantly underestimate the wars. The Bush …
Get the full transcript (1,308 words) + summary by email — free
One-time email with the complete transcript and AI summary of this episode. No account needed.
One email, no spam. We’ll also show you what SignalCast does.
You just read a 3-minute summary of a 5-minute episode.
Get The Indicator summarized like this every Monday — plus up to 2 more podcasts, free.
Pick Your Podcasts — FreeKeep Reading
More from The Indicator
How much safer do Flock cameras make us?
Sep 15 · 9 min
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Inside the Iran War and the Pentagon's Feud with Anthropic with Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
Mar 6
More from The Indicator
A Beautiful Bill, Mamdani's Market, and Stock Subscriptions
Sep 14 · 9 min
The Intelligence (Economist)
Spars and strikes: Who backs Iran war?
Mar 5
More from The Indicator
We summarize every new episode. Want them in your inbox?
How much safer do Flock cameras make us?
A Beautiful Bill, Mamdani's Market, and Stock Subscriptions
Bessent's yen bet, cold Argentine data centers set, and the summer box office net
Are small town colleges going extinct?
Let's play ... Who Wants To Be a Bank!
Similar Episodes
Related episodes from other podcasts
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mar 6
Inside the Iran War and the Pentagon's Feud with Anthropic with Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
The Intelligence (Economist)
Mar 5
Spars and strikes: Who backs Iran war?
Up First (NPR)
Mar 2
US Israeli War With Iran, Trump's War Address, Gulf Countries Bear The Brunt
Up First (NPR)
Feb 28
US/Israeli Strikes Iran, Iran Retaliates on Israel and other Middle East Countries
The Diary of a CEO
Sep 3
Andrew Huberman: My Exact Routine To Optimize Brain & Body, I Do All Of These Every Day!
Explore Related Topics
This podcast is featured in Best Finance Podcasts (2026) — ranked and reviewed with AI summaries.
Read this week's Health & Longevity Podcast Insights — cross-podcast analysis updated weekly.
You're clearly into The Indicator.
Every Monday, we deliver AI summaries of the latest episodes from The Indicator and 192+ other podcasts. Free for one show.
Start My Monday DigestNo credit card · Unsubscribe anytime