The Emergent Trump Doctrine

What It Covers

Emma Ashford analyzes Trump's evolving foreign policy doctrine, examining his approach to Ukraine-Russia negotiations, Iran nuclear talks, Israel-Gaza dynamics, and relationships with allies through tariffs and burden-sharing demands across his second term.

Key Questions Answered

• •Iran Nuclear Negotiations: Trump pursues a deal similar to Obama's JCPOA with slightly tighter enrichment restrictions but looser verification terms, motivated by avoiding war rather than maximum pressure, reversing his first-term approach that failed to bring Iran to negotiations.
• •Abraham Accords Strategy: Trump views expanding the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia as his primary legacy goal and path to a Nobel Prize, creating potential leverage for Palestinian political progress since Saudis demand concrete movement on statehood before normalizing relations with Israel.
• •Ukraine Mediation Limits: Trump positions America as an impartial mediator in Ukraine-Russia talks but lacks persistence in deal-making, preferring counterparties come to him rather than engaging in intensive shuttle diplomacy like previous presidents, potentially limiting negotiation success despite ongoing Istanbul framework discussions.
• •Alliance Burden-Shifting: Trump continues decades-long American policy of demanding European allies increase defense spending, using tariffs and threats as tools rather than diplomatic persuasion, building on concerns voiced by Obama-era officials about NATO sustainability and free-riding by European partners on American security guarantees.
• •Personnel Loyalty Test: Trump's second administration shows greater foreign policy coherence because advisers like Marco Rubio subordinate their previous neoconservative views to Trump's preferences, while dissenters like Mike Waltz face sidelining after coordinating unauthorized Israeli strike plans against Iran without presidential approval.