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The Ezra Klein Show

The Blue Wave Cometh?

58 min episode · 2 min read
·
Aaron Redica

Episode

58 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Productivity, Relationships, Leadership

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • Affordability as unifying message: Democrats won by centering cost-of-living concerns across ideological spectrum. Zoran Mamdani's four-point agenda (fast and free buses, rent freeze, free childcare, public groceries) and Mikey Sherrill's utility rate focus both outperformed Harris by five points in their states.
  • Geographic expansion problem unsolved: Democrats remain uncompetitive in 24 states Trump won by 10-plus points. Winning New Jersey and Virginia by larger margins does not address the fundamental challenge of competing in Ohio, Iowa, Florida, or Alaska for Senate control and durable governing majorities.
  • Newsom's experimental approach: California governor demonstrates political courage by simultaneously pursuing MAGA outreach (podcasting with Charlie Kirk, Steve Bannon) and resistance leadership (mid-cycle redistricting passing with 65 percent support). This willingness to risk backlash from his own coalition distinguishes him from timid Democratic peers.
  • Anti-cruelty as organizing principle: Liberalism requires courage to protect vulnerable populations from Trump administration tactics like masked ICE raids in preschools. Democrats must position as defenders against systematic cruelty while maintaining pluralistic relationships across difference, not mirroring MAGA's organization of hatreds with their own exclusionary politics.

What It Covers

Democrats won decisively in 2025 off-year elections across New York, Virginia, New Jersey, and California. Ezra Klein and Aaron Retica analyze what these victories reveal about Democratic strategy, affordability messaging, and paths to defeating Trumpism in 2026-2028.

Key Questions Answered

  • Affordability as unifying message: Democrats won by centering cost-of-living concerns across ideological spectrum. Zoran Mamdani's four-point agenda (fast and free buses, rent freeze, free childcare, public groceries) and Mikey Sherrill's utility rate focus both outperformed Harris by five points in their states.
  • Geographic expansion problem unsolved: Democrats remain uncompetitive in 24 states Trump won by 10-plus points. Winning New Jersey and Virginia by larger margins does not address the fundamental challenge of competing in Ohio, Iowa, Florida, or Alaska for Senate control and durable governing majorities.
  • Newsom's experimental approach: California governor demonstrates political courage by simultaneously pursuing MAGA outreach (podcasting with Charlie Kirk, Steve Bannon) and resistance leadership (mid-cycle redistricting passing with 65 percent support). This willingness to risk backlash from his own coalition distinguishes him from timid Democratic peers.
  • Anti-cruelty as organizing principle: Liberalism requires courage to protect vulnerable populations from Trump administration tactics like masked ICE raids in preschools. Democrats must position as defenders against systematic cruelty while maintaining pluralistic relationships across difference, not mirroring MAGA's organization of hatreds with their own exclusionary politics.

Notable Moment

Mamdani won despite bringing out both strong support and opposition, securing just 50.6 percent of votes. His opponents focused attacks on Israel positions and socialism concerns rather than his actual affordability policies, which proved broadly popular even among critics who found other aspects troubling.

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Episode Transcript

So before we begin today's episode, I'm recording another Ask Me Anything episode for New York Times subscribers soon. You can send your question to EzraKleinshow@nytimes.com using the subject line AMA. We'll consider anything in the inbox on or before the morning of Monday, November 10. So write in soon. So Democrats had a big night on Tuesday. They won in New York City, where Zoran Mamdani has been the big story of the political year. They won in Virginia, where Abigail Spanberger became the first woman to become governor of Virginia, and that state's history. They won in New Jersey, a state where the polling had showed it unnervingly close for Democrats, but it turned out to not be close at all, and Mikey Sherrill won by double digits. They won in California, where Gavin Newsom's prop 50, his mid cycle redistricting to counter Texas, passed with, at last I saw, 65% of the vote, but it's California. We will be counting votes there forever. They won in Pennsylvania where there were Supreme Court seats up for election. They won in Georgia in these very little notice statewide, utility board seats. They just won everywhere. Every kind of voter move towards Democrats. And where the polling had made it look like this was still a pretty mixed political moment, these results looked much more like the prelude to a wave election in 2026. Now the counterargument is these were mostly in states, but Kamala Harris had won. New Jersey, Virginia, New York, California. These were not the places where Democrats have been really struggling. But both sides are gonna be looking at this election to try to take some big lessons for 2026 and even, I think, for 2028. So to help me parse Hope from Hopium, Fact from Fiction here, I am joined by my esteemed editor, Aaron Redica. Hello. Aaron, welcome back to the show. Thanks, Ezra. Let's start where you left off there. So if you're a progressive, there was much to be delighted by. If you are a moderate, there was much to be delighted by. If you are a Democrat, there was much to be delighted by. Right? But already people are starting to say, No, no, no, no, no. This shows that moderation is the way to go. No, no, no, no, no. This shows that an aggressive left wing agenda will do it, right? A populist agenda. It seems, though, to show actually that simultaneously pushing both in different places works. Are you saying the Democratic Party needs to be more things in more places, Aaron? Yeah, I mean, there's different versions of this argument, right? Our colleague, Jamelle Bouby, makes a different version of this argument, right? That the party has to be what it needs to be in each of its places, but that the overall coalition has to be pushing one way or the other. But like, what do you draw out of what happened? I have seen so …

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