What are the key takeaways from this The Daily (NYT) episode?

Key insights include: **Violent Populism Scale:** University of Chicago surveys show 14–21% of Americans currently support political violence — roughly double the 10% recorded during the Biden years. Critically, 55% of those supporters define "use of force" as assassination specifically, meaning approximately one in ten Americans implicitly endorses political assassination as a legitimate tool.; **Attacker Profile Shift:** Analysis of 1,575 January 6 defendants reveals the profile of right-wing political violence has fundamentally changed. Unemployment matched the national average at 7%, and perpetrators included business owners, doctors, lawyers, and CEOs. Only 10% belonged to militia groups, versus 50% in prior decades — meaning threat assessment must target suburban, educated demographics.; **Dual Structural Drivers:** Two simultaneous social changes fuel bipartisan violence: the U.S. transitioning from 88% white in 1960 to a projected 49% white minority by 2045, and a decades-long wealth shift from the bottom 90% to the top 1% regardless of which party governs. Neither party has addressed the wealth concentration driver.

What did Robert Pape discuss on The Daily (NYT)?

University of Chicago professor Robert Pape presents data from 20 nationally representative surveys showing that political violence acceptance has doubled to 14–21% of Americans since Trump's 2024 election, driven by demographic transition and wealth concentration, creating what Pape terms "violent populism" threatening democratic stability. Key topics include: **Violent Populism Scale:** University of Chicago surveys show 14–21% of Americans currently support political violence — roughly double the 10% recorded during the Biden years. Critically, 55% of those supporters define "use of force" as assassination specifically, meaning approximately one in ten Americans implicitly endorses political assassination as a legitimate tool.; **Attacker Profile Shift:** Analysis of 1,575 January 6 defendants reveals the profile of right-wing political violence has fundamentally changed. Unemployment matched the national average at 7%, and perpetrators included business owners, doctors, lawyers, and CEOs. Only 10% belonged to militia groups, versus 50% in prior decades — meaning threat assessment must target suburban, educated demographics..

How long is this episode of The Daily (NYT)?

This episode is 38 minutes long. SignalCast provides an AI-generated summary so you can get the key insights in about 3 minutes.

The Daily (NYT)

What Drives Political Violence in America

May 4, 2026

38 min episode · 2 min read

Robert Pape

Episode

38 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Productivity, Personal Finance, Crypto & Web3

AI-Generated Summary

Published May 4, 2026

Key Takeaways

✓Violent Populism Scale: University of Chicago surveys show 14–21% of Americans currently support political violence — roughly double the 10% recorded during the Biden years. Critically, 55% of those supporters define "use of force" as assassination specifically, meaning approximately one in ten Americans implicitly endorses political assassination as a legitimate tool.
✓Attacker Profile Shift: Analysis of 1,575 January 6 defendants reveals the profile of right-wing political violence has fundamentally changed. Unemployment matched the national average at 7%, and perpetrators included business owners, doctors, lawyers, and CEOs. Only 10% belonged to militia groups, versus 50% in prior decades — meaning threat assessment must target suburban, educated demographics.
✓Dual Structural Drivers: Two simultaneous social changes fuel bipartisan violence: the U.S. transitioning from 88% white in 1960 to a projected 49% white minority by 2045, and a decades-long wealth shift from the bottom 90% to the top 1% regardless of which party governs. Neither party has addressed the wealth concentration driver.
✓Rhetoric Measurably Reduces Violence: After Biden's post-assassination-attempt Oval Office address in 2024 condemning political violence across all sides, subsequent University of Chicago surveys recorded a 20% nationwide decline in political violence support. A second similar statement from Biden and Harris produced another measurable drop, suggesting joint bipartisan condemnation is a concrete, near-term intervention.
✓The 75% Majority Strategy: Despite elevated violence support, 75% of Americans consistently oppose political violence across all surveys. Pape argues this majority can reduce violence by actively contacting representatives to demand bipartisan condemnation. Currently, congressional inboxes receive only partisan escalation messages, directly shaping leader behavior — constituent pressure from the anti-violence majority would shift that signal.

What It Covers

University of Chicago professor Robert Pape presents data from 20 nationally representative surveys showing that political violence acceptance has doubled to 14–21% of Americans since Trump's 2024 election, driven by demographic transition and wealth concentration, creating what Pape terms "violent populism" threatening democratic stability.

Key Questions Answered

•Violent Populism Scale: University of Chicago surveys show 14–21% of Americans currently support political violence — roughly double the 10% recorded during the Biden years. Critically, 55% of those supporters define "use of force" as assassination specifically, meaning approximately one in ten Americans implicitly endorses political assassination as a legitimate tool.
•Attacker Profile Shift: Analysis of 1,575 January 6 defendants reveals the profile of right-wing political violence has fundamentally changed. Unemployment matched the national average at 7%, and perpetrators included business owners, doctors, lawyers, and CEOs. Only 10% belonged to militia groups, versus 50% in prior decades — meaning threat assessment must target suburban, educated demographics.
•Dual Structural Drivers: Two simultaneous social changes fuel bipartisan violence: the U.S. transitioning from 88% white in 1960 to a projected 49% white minority by 2045, and a decades-long wealth shift from the bottom 90% to the top 1% regardless of which party governs. Neither party has addressed the wealth concentration driver.
•Rhetoric Measurably Reduces Violence: After Biden's post-assassination-attempt Oval Office address in 2024 condemning political violence across all sides, subsequent University of Chicago surveys recorded a 20% nationwide decline in political violence support. A second similar statement from Biden and Harris produced another measurable drop, suggesting joint bipartisan condemnation is a concrete, near-term intervention.
•The 75% Majority Strategy: Despite elevated violence support, 75% of Americans consistently oppose political violence across all surveys. Pape argues this majority can reduce violence by actively contacting representatives to demand bipartisan condemnation. Currently, congressional inboxes receive only partisan escalation messages, directly shaping leader behavior — constituent pressure from the anti-violence majority would shift that signal.

Notable Moment

Pape reveals that the fear driving educated, middle-class Americans toward violence acceptance is not desperation from having nothing to lose — it is the opposite. They fear losing existing status and political power as demographic and economic shifts accelerate, making them perceive violence as a defensive last resort before permanent political exclusion.

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Episode Transcript

The Opinions podcast from New York Times Opinion, bringing you a mix of conversations and new ideas, featuring the voices of our writers and columnists. To me, the single most underestimated force in international relations is actually stupidity. Including Jamelle Bouie. Trustee McMillan Cottom. Michelle Goldberg. Thomas Friedman. And many more. Find the opinions wherever you get your podcasts. From the New York Times, I'm Natalie Kitroeff. This is The Daily. In the midst of a cascade of violent acts against political figures It happened in Minnesota, the murder of a state representative and her husband in what's being called a politically motivated attack. This morning, a man is charged in connection with an arson at the governor's residence while governor Shapiro and his family slept inside. Charlie Kirk has been shot. The latest from the White House correspondent center, the secret service has a person in custody after shots were fired. And in the wake of what appears to be the third assassination attempt against president Trump. Times reports the suspected shooter's 1,000 word manifesto says Trump administration figures were his targets. The question that keeps coming up is how do we get here and how much worse could it really get? So last week, I called University of Chicago professor Robert Pape. For decades, he's been one of the country's leading experts on political violence, and he's advised every White House from 2001 to 2024. We talked about why violence from the right and the left is on the rise and what it would take to stop it. It's Monday, May 4. Professor Pape, we started thinking about doing a conversation like this after a series of what felt like extraordinary instances of political violence. The president's two assassination attempts and then Charlie Kirk's assassination. So we, at the Daily, have been talking to you in the background for some time now. And then there was another act of violence apparently directed at the Trump administration. And so we thought now is the time. So thanks for being here. Thank you very much for having me. I wanna start with this theory that you have, which is that we are in an age of what you call violent populism. This is something you have a book coming out on, and you say that this violent populism represents a bigger risk to American democracy than anything else. No terrorist group or foreign country comes close in your eyes. So first of all, what is violent populism, and why is it such a risk? The most important fact about political violence in America today is this. Tens of millions of Americans on both sides of the aisle see political violence as acceptable. And once you have tens of millions of Americans, not a fringe, not a few militia groups who see violence as acceptable, this changes everything about the risks of attack. It makes the individuals who are volatile for their own psychosocial reasons. It pushes those volatile individuals over …

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