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The U.S. Tried to Choke Russia’s Energy Market. Then It Made a Diesel Deal.

30 min episode · 2 min read
·
Anton Trojanovsky

Episode

30 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Relationships, Investing, Economics & Policy

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • ✓Sanctions reversal mechanics: The Treasury Department temporarily suspended Russian diesel sanctions, meaning not only will the U.S. purchase 300,000 tons immediately with 500,000 more in November, but no third-party buyer faces penalties either. This effectively dismantles a core Western economic pressure tool without receiving any documented Russian concession in return.
  • ✓Consumer price impact vs. political signaling: The 300,000-ton initial diesel purchase represents less than one full day of U.S. consumption. Diesel prices dropped only four cents per gallon week-over-week. Policymakers and voters should treat administration claims of meaningful price relief skeptically — the deal functions primarily as political messaging ahead of midterm elections rather than substantive market intervention.
  • ✓Shifting deal strategy — reward to down payment: The administration's Russia approach evolved from "business deals only after war ends" to offering economic benefits before any ceasefire. Witkoff and Kushner now actively negotiate deals mid-conflict, signaling to Moscow that normalized relations are available without requiring Ukraine war resolution, fundamentally weakening Western negotiating leverage.
  • ✓Lukoil asset deal and conflict-of-interest risk: A near-finalized deal involves investor Todd Boehly purchasing Lukoil's international assets — including European refineries and New Jersey gas stations — alongside Middle Eastern investors who hold existing business partnerships with Witkoff and Kushner. Observers tracking U.S.-Russia negotiations should monitor whether deal beneficiaries correlate with negotiating parties.
  • ✓Putin's unchanged war calculus: Despite receiving sanctions relief, Russia continued striking Ukrainian civilian infrastructure immediately after the diesel announcement. Putin's core priorities remain territorial control of Donbas, post-war influence over Ukraine, and NATO positioning — not economic gain. Engagement-based strategies that ignore these geopolitical demands show no measurable progress after 18-plus months of Trump-era diplomacy.

What It Covers

The Trump administration lifts sanctions on Russian diesel, agreeing to purchase 300,000 tons initially, in a policy reversal that stuns European allies and Ukraine. Anton Troianovski explains how converging pressures — the Iran war, rising fuel costs, approaching midterms, and stalled Ukraine peace talks — drove this strategic shift toward Russia.

Key Questions Answered

  • •Sanctions reversal mechanics: The Treasury Department temporarily suspended Russian diesel sanctions, meaning not only will the U.S. purchase 300,000 tons immediately with 500,000 more in November, but no third-party buyer faces penalties either. This effectively dismantles a core Western economic pressure tool without receiving any documented Russian concession in return.
  • •Consumer price impact vs. political signaling: The 300,000-ton initial diesel purchase represents less than one full day of U.S. consumption. Diesel prices dropped only four cents per gallon week-over-week. Policymakers and voters should treat administration claims of meaningful price relief skeptically — the deal functions primarily as political messaging ahead of midterm elections rather than substantive market intervention.
  • •Shifting deal strategy — reward to down payment: The administration's Russia approach evolved from "business deals only after war ends" to offering economic benefits before any ceasefire. Witkoff and Kushner now actively negotiate deals mid-conflict, signaling to Moscow that normalized relations are available without requiring Ukraine war resolution, fundamentally weakening Western negotiating leverage.
  • •Lukoil asset deal and conflict-of-interest risk: A near-finalized deal involves investor Todd Boehly purchasing Lukoil's international assets — including European refineries and New Jersey gas stations — alongside Middle Eastern investors who hold existing business partnerships with Witkoff and Kushner. Observers tracking U.S.-Russia negotiations should monitor whether deal beneficiaries correlate with negotiating parties.
  • •Putin's unchanged war calculus: Despite receiving sanctions relief, Russia continued striking Ukrainian civilian infrastructure immediately after the diesel announcement. Putin's core priorities remain territorial control of Donbas, post-war influence over Ukraine, and NATO positioning — not economic gain. Engagement-based strategies that ignore these geopolitical demands show no measurable progress after 18-plus months of Trump-era diplomacy.

Notable Moment

When the diesel deal was announced at Steve Witkoff's Florida golf resort, European and Ukrainian officials present were blindsided mid-meeting. The announcement came with no prior warning to allies and no corresponding Russian concession — a sequence that crystallized how dramatically U.S. foreign policy priorities had reordered.

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Episode Transcript

Wanna hear a scary number? Comcast Business detected 79,300,000,000 cyber events over a year across their security customers. And with AI powered threats on the rise, it's getting more and more difficult to feel certain about your business. But thanks to Comcast Business Intelligence, solutions and twenty four seven partnership, cyber confidence is possible. Learn more about Comcast Business advanced cybersecurity solutions at comcastbusiness.com/cybersecurity. Cyber confidence starts with Comcast Business. From The New York Times, I'm Natalie Kitrov. This is The Daily. After years of American sanctions on Russian oil and gas, president Trump has just announced a deal in which The United States would buy billions of dollars in diesel from Russia. Trump claimed the move would lower fuel prices, but it stunned US allies and lawmakers in Washington who warned that the American government was handing Putin a lifeline. Today, my colleague Anton Trojanovsky explains what the deal reveals about Trump's changing strategy with Russia and how much it could actually help American consumers. It's Wednesday, October 14. Anton, welcome back to The Daily. We love having you here. Good to be here. Thank you, Natalie. So on Friday, we learned that the American government is now reversing reversing years of US policy and is gonna be buying Russian diesel, which is something that The US had not been doing because we were told that money could fund Russia's war machine. And we learned that all this is in service of lowering gas prices at home. This news was received, I think, as a total shock around the world. Can you just start by saying how big of a deal this actually is? Yeah. Absolutely. So Friday's news was a really stunning reversal because it was the president saying, we have agreed with Russia that the Russians will immediately supply 300,000 tons of diesel to US and world markets and even more after that without even saying that this was part of some kind of broader deal to deescalate this war in Ukraine that's now gone on for four and a half years and killed hundreds of thousands of people. Okay. So how did this happen, Anton? Lay out for me how exactly we got here. Well, let's go all the way back to the twenty twenty four election campaign. You remember, one of Trump's main campaign promises was to end the war in Ukraine. He said he was gonna do it in twenty four hours. That did not happen. That did not happen. But Trump's friend and now peace envoy, Steve Witkoff, started early on in February 2025, regularly going to Russia, meeting with Putin, speaking to other Russian officials about trying to end the war. And one primary prong of The US approach has been talking about business deals with Russia, basically making the argument that, look. If only this war was over, we could do all these great things together, and our countries could make lots of money. Essentially, let's end this war, and we …

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