The Frisky Cowboys, the Next Stafford, KC’s Houdini Act, an NFL Thanks Session, and Guess the Lines With Cousin Sal

What It Covers

Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal analyze Week 13 NFL action, covering the Cowboys' 21-point comeback win over the Eagles, Matthew Stafford's MVP case at 30 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, the Chiefs' Houdini escape in Indianapolis, NFC playoff picture implications, a Thanksgiving gratitude session, and the weekly Guess the Lines segment where Sal leads 8-4.

Key Questions Answered

• •Cowboys Offensive Weapons: George Pickens, acquired for a third-round pick, now ranks top-5 in receiving yards with 146 yards on 9 catches against Philadelphia, surpassing the entire Steelers receiving corps combined for the season. Dallas also demonstrates a measurably improved defensive line capable of stopping the run after trading for Quinn and Williams. The team sits at 5-5-1 with a plus-520 playoff odds line worth monitoring before the Chiefs matchup.
• •Stafford MVP Math: At 30 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions through Week 13, Stafford sits at minus-220 MVP odds on FanDuel, making it effectively a two-horse race with Drake May at plus-220. Stafford is on pace for 4,000 yards and a potential one-seed. Historically, the oldest MVP quarterbacks were Brady at 40 and Rodgers at 38; Stafford turns 38 after the season ends, placing him among the oldest potential winners ever.
• •Chiefs Situational Vulnerability: Kansas City trailed Indianapolis 20-9 before rallying, with Mahomes visibly inconsistent on deep throws and rolling left. The Colts ran only 10 first downs, had 11 penalties, and possessed the ball for just 25 minutes. The Chiefs' defense held Indianapolis scoreless across the third quarter, fourth quarter, and overtime. The takeaway for bettors: Kansas City remains dangerous in close games but cannot be trusted to cover large spreads in outdoor cold-weather environments.
• •NFC Playoff Hierarchy: The Rams emerge as the default NFC favorite at plus-220, with Stafford operating a balanced offense capable of deploying multiple tight end sets, spread formations, or run-heavy packages depending on opponent. The Eagles at 8-3 show recurring dysfunction — five punts, two fumbles, and a missed field goal on their final seven possessions against Dallas. Seattle projects as a potential second-best NFC team if Philadelphia cannot stabilize its offensive line and Saquon Barkley's production.
• •Bears Quarterback Trajectory: Caleb Williams has gone five consecutive weeks without an interception, though 26% of his passes remain uncatchable per broadcast statistics. Chicago's schedule has featured a run of struggling quarterbacks including Rudolph, McCarthy, Dart, Flacco, Huntley, Rattler, and Geno Smith. The Bears sit at 8-3 and control a two-seed race with Philadelphia. The practical lesson: evaluate Williams' development against playoff-caliber defenses before drawing conclusions from this stretch.
• •Coaching Decision Patterns: Aaron Glenn's fourth-and-two conversion attempt from his own 42-yard line, down three points in the second half against Baltimore with one of the AFC's weakest offenses, exemplifies a recurring pattern of coaches overestimating their units in critical moments. The Jaguars called a rollout pass on fourth-and-two against Arizona with a quarterback who had four turnovers, bypassing a makeable 45-yard field goal. Tracking these specific situational decisions — fourth-down attempts, red zone play-calling, two-minute management — reveals which coaching staffs are structurally unsound.
• •Guess the Lines Strategy: Sal leads the season series 8-4 by consistently landing within one point of the Vegas number on divisional and rivalry games where public money distorts lines. Notable Week 13 findings: Rams opened at 9.5 over Carolina, Eagles opened at 7 over Bears, and Patriots opened at 7.5 over Giants despite Will Campbell's offensive line injury. When a participant misses a spread by five or more points, the Vegas number typically reflects sharp money and represents a fading opportunity against the public side.