The Annual NFC Over/Unders With Cousin Sal

What It Covers

Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal analyze NFC over/under win totals for all 16 teams, evaluating roster changes, schedule difficulty, coaching impacts, and playoff probabilities heading into the season.

Key Questions Answered

• •Philadelphia Eagles dominance: Eagles have highest talent rating at 38 points with seven offensive stars including Hurts, Barkley, Brown, and top-four offensive line. They face toughest schedule but converted 87% of fourth downs last year and consistently draft elite defensive players through SEC pipeline strategy.
• •Detroit Lions regression risk: Lions lost both coordinators including Ben Johnson plus seven coaches total after 15-2 season. New offensive coordinator John Morton raises concerns, offensive line lost center and guard, and they face four more outdoor games than last year when dome advantage was crucial to success.
• •Green Bay Packers value: Packers went 11-6 despite going 1-5 in division and Love dealing with three injuries. LaFleur maintains top-10 offense annually with 67-33 coaching record. Love at 25-1 MVP odds presents value if team reaches 12-13 wins needed for award consideration.
• •Washington Commanders regression candidate: Commanders won 12 games but faced weakest quarterback schedule including Daniel Jones twice, Andy Dalton, Caleb Williams, Cooper Rush. They converted 20-of-23 fourth downs (unrepeatable) and became oldest NFL team with 13 players aged 30-plus signed or traded for this offseason.
• •Schedule strength disparity: NFC East faces AFC West and NFC North (two best divisions), while NFC West plays AFC South and NFC South (weakest divisions). This creates 10-15 game variance in difficulty, making schedule analysis critical for over/under decisions beyond roster talent evaluation.