NFL Over/Unders, an Oscars Preview, and a Brady-Pats Feud | With Cousin Sal, Sean Fennessey, and Seth Wickersham

What It Covers

Bill Simmons, Cousin Sal, Sean Fennessey, and Seth Wickersham cover three topics across 171 minutes: FanDuel's newly released NFL win total over/unders for all 32 teams, Oscar predictions ahead of Sunday's ceremony with best actor race analysis, and Brady's complicated relationship with the Patriots organization drawn from Wickersham's book American Kings.

Key Questions Answered

• •NFL Schedule Impact on Win Totals: Schedule difficulty drives FanDuel's over/unders more than roster quality. The Patriots drop from 14 wins to a 9.5 projection — a 4.5-game swing — entirely because they shift from a first-place schedule to a harder slate. Similarly, Denver falls from 14 wins to 9.5. When a team's win total drops 4+ games year-over-year, the schedule differential, not roster regression, is typically the primary explanation worth investigating before betting.
• •Early Over/Under Betting Strategy: Lines move between release and August, so identifying which totals will rise lets bettors lock in value early. The Chargers at 9.5 are flagged as a line likely to climb to 10.5 once roster moves and draft picks are factored in. The Giants at 7.5 are similarly identified as a number that could rise as public sentiment builds around their new coach and returning quarterback Jaylen Daniels.
• •Division Win Total Arbitrage: Comparing division-wide projected wins reveals market inefficiencies. The NFC South projects at just 29 total wins across four teams, with Carolina and New Orleans each sitting at 6.5. When an entire division projects this low, individual team overs carry better value because the soft schedule — NFC North and AFC North opponents — creates realistic paths to seven-plus wins even with limited rosters.
• •Two-First-Round Trade Historical Failure Rate: Trading two first-round picks for a single player has a historically poor success rate. A compiled list of such trades includes Herschel Walker, Ricky Williams, Keyshawn Johnson, Jalen Ramsey, Khalil Mack, Jamal Adams, and Russell Wilson. The only defensible success is Matthew Stafford, and that trade also included Jared Goff going the other direction, complicating the valuation. Baltimore's Max Crosby trade fits this pattern and warrants skepticism.
• •Best Actor Race Volatility: The Oscar best actor category is unusually unpredictable when SAG has only correctly predicted the Academy winner three out of the last six years. Michael B. Jordan is a slight betting favorite despite winning zero precursor awards before SAG. Timothée Chalamet has dropped to plus-145 range after being a prohibitive favorite. Wagner Moura at 20-to-1 represents a live dark horse given Brazil's academy bloc and his precision campaigning strategy.
• •Overexposure Risk for Award Frontrunners: Chalamet's trajectory illustrates how marketing campaigns that successfully open original films — Marty Supreme reaching 100 million dollars — can simultaneously generate voter fatigue. The same visibility that proved his box office viability as a standalone star created an "enough of this guy" reaction among academy voters. The lesson: aggressive IP-free film marketing and awards campaigning simultaneously is a high-risk strategy that can erode goodwill with voting bodies.
• •Fourth-Place Schedule as Betting Signal: Teams finishing last in their division receive easier schedules the following year, creating a reliable over betting signal when combined with coaching changes or quarterback upgrades. The Giants at 7.5 coming off four wins, the Titans at 6.5 with a new coach and Cam Ward in year two, and the Raiders at 5.5 with Gardner Minshew all fit this profile. Historically, these setups have produced two-to-four win improvements over projections.