NBA Over/Unders, Part 2: The East With Zach Lowe and Joe House

What It Covers

Bill Simmons, Zach Lowe, and Joe House analyze NBA Eastern Conference over/under win totals for the 2024-25 season, debating playoff contenders, tanking strategies, and how the second apron affects roster construction across fifteen teams.

Key Questions Answered

• •Cleveland's Second Apron Test: The Cavaliers at 56.5 wins represent the first true contender trapped under the second apron with zero roster flexibility, unable to make trades or sign buyout players despite winning 64 games last season and losing key rotation pieces in Ty Jerome and Isaac Okoro.
• •Milwaukee's Undervalued Roster: The Bucks at 42.5 wins offer significant value despite having Giannis Antetokounmpo, the best player in the East. They added Miles Turner and improved shooting depth with 38.5% three-point percentage last season, while maintaining desperate motivation from all stakeholders to win immediately.
• •Philadelphia's Collapse Indicators: The 76ers at 42.5 wins face structural concerns beyond injuries. Last season marked their first year with neutral performance when Joel Embiid played, posting plus-two net rating with their core trio and shooting 29.8% on threes in Embiid's minutes, historically terrible for contention.
• •Boston's Post-Tatum Reality: The Celtics at 42.5 wins must prove their system survives without Jayson Tatum for four months. Their success depends on whether their three-point volume approach, defensive identity, and coaching from Joe Mazzulla can maintain 500 basketball with Anthony Simons replacing Drew Holiday.
• •Atlanta's Stealth Contender Status: The Hawks at 47.5 wins added Kristaps Porzingis, Luke Kennard, and Dyson Daniels to address perimeter defense while maintaining offensive firepower. They possess a 13 million dollar trade exception, multiple future picks including Milwaukee's selections, and flexibility to make midseason upgrades for playoff positioning.