Drake Definitely Beats Buffalo, Baker for MVP, a Bad QB Draft, Guess the Lines, and Parent Corner With Cousin Sal

What It Covers

Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal recap NFL Week 5, covering the Patriots' upset win over Buffalo with Drake May's performance, Baker Mayfield's case for MVP at 13-to-1 odds, the Cardinals-Titans fumble disaster, a bad quarterback fantasy draft ranking 12 struggling starters, and Cousin Sal's record-setting 10-for-10 perfect score on Guess the Lines.

Key Questions Answered

• •Drake May's Quarterback Ceiling: Through five weeks, Drake May has demonstrated legitimate franchise quarterback traits — making critical throws under pressure, converting on third downs, and controlling game tempo against a Bills defense that entered the game having allowed only two turnovers all season. Simmons frames having a top-10 NFL quarterback as a binary asset: roughly 10 exist league-wide, and teams without one can spend two to three decades searching. The Patriots now appear to have one.
• •Baker Mayfield MVP Case: Mayfield sits at 13-to-1 MVP odds despite leading all quarterbacks in clutch performance through five games, with four fourth-quarter comeback drives. He set a regular-season record with 375-plus passing yards and fewer than five incompletions in a single game. Simmons argues he ranks ahead of Mahomes and Allen in 2025 performance, making his current odds a potential betting value before the market corrects toward the 8-to-1 range.
• •Goal-Line Fumble Psychology: Two separate goal-line fumbles in Week 5 — the Cardinals' Amari DeMarco dropping the ball before crossing the goal line on a 76-yard run, and a similar Rams incident — point to a recurring pattern. Simmons theorizes players experience a cognitive blackout state when sprinting toward the end zone, losing situational awareness. The practical implication for bettors and fans: never assume a touchdown is secured until the player is fully across the goal line.
• •Justin Fields' 0-26 Record: Fields is 0-and-26 in NFL games when the opposing team scores 21 or more points, a stat spanning nearly two full seasons of games. This functions as a hard betting rule: any game where the Jets' opponent reaches 21 points is effectively over. Fields averages 4.5 yards per pass attempt, and the Jets have gone five weeks without a single defensive turnover — the first team to do so since 1933.
• •Denver Broncos AFC Value: At plus-290 to win the AFC West and with a 9.5-win total priced at minus-125, Denver presents the strongest risk-adjusted position in the AFC. The Broncos are two plays from 5-and-0, Bo Nix is performing at his 2024 level in the final quarter of games, and their next five opponents are the Jets, Giants, Cowboys, Texans, and Raiders — a schedule that projects to at least four wins, pushing them toward 10 total.
• •Quarterback Market Inefficiency: The bad quarterback draft segment identifies Jake Browning (8 interceptions in 4 games, with Ja'Marr Chase leading the Bengals in tackles), Geno Smith (9 interceptions in 5 games, worst pace since Zach Wilson in 2021), and Justin Fields as the three most damaging starters. The actionable betting framework: avoid backing any team with these quarterbacks in same-game parlays or spread bets when the opponent has a functional offense capable of reaching 21 points.
• •AFC East Playoff Math: With Baltimore at 1-and-4, Cincinnati losing by 25-plus points in three consecutive weeks, and the Chargers' offensive line collapsing, the AFC playoff picture has opened significantly. The Patriots at plus-360 to win the AFC East face three genuinely difficult games the rest of the season. Their schedule includes the Titans, Browns, Giants, Jets twice, and Dolphins — a path that makes nine wins realistic and a wild card berth probable if Drake May sustains current performance levels.