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The Bill Simmons Podcast

An NBA Power Poll, the Surprise Celtics, the Queen Conundrum, and Fake Trades Galore With Rob Mahoney

105 min episode · 4 min read
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Episode

105 min

Read time

4 min

Topics

Economics & Policy

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • Sacramento Kings roster destruction: The Kings executed one of the worst multi-year roster demolitions in recent NBA history — drafting Carter over Zach Edey and Scoot McCain, signing DeRozan to $74M with no fit, extending Sabonis $186M early, trading De'Aaron Fox for Zach LaVine plus two picks, and signing Schroeder $29M only to immediately sign Russell Westbrook over him. Despite zero tradable assets beyond Sabonis, they now project as a top-three lottery team in a historically deep draft.
  • Derek Queen trade structure failure: New Orleans acquiring Derek Queen from Atlanta without lottery protection on the conveyed pick represents a fireable offense in roster construction. Queen projects as a legitimate half-court offensive hub — comparable to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in his ability to manipulate defenders through unusual footwork and spin moves — but the unprotected pick likely becomes the most valuable asset in any Giannis Antetokounmpo trade sweepstakes, costing New Orleans enormous leverage at the worst possible time.
  • 2025 NBA Draft historical depth: The incoming draft class may rival 1996 — which produced eight eventual All-NBA players including three MVPs — with six players plausibly reaching All-NBA level: Ace Bailey, Cedric Howard, Dylan Harper, Cannibal, Edgecomb, and Derek Queen. The 1996 class produced Iverson, Kobe, Nash, Ray Allen, Stankovic, Marbury, Jermaine O'Neal, and Shareef Abdur-Rahim. Getting even four All-NBA players from one draft would rank among the top two or three deepest classes in league history.
  • Boston Celtics overachievement formula: Without Jayson Tatum, Boston runs a possession-volume offense generating 16 made threes per game — ranking second in offensive rating and first in threes made while sitting 30th in pace and free throw attempts. The key structural advantage is winning the possession battle nightly through elite offensive rebounding combined with low turnovers, then amplifying that margin through three-point volume. Every rotation player carries a specific motivation: contract years, reduced roles previously, or first real NBA opportunity.
  • Dylan Harper evaluation framework: San Antonio's second overall pick operates in a rare NBA developmental luxury — a contending team that does not need him yet, making every contribution a bonus rather than a necessity. Harper gets to the rim against NBA defenders through footwork and body control rather than pure speed or strength, drawing comparisons to a running back's cutting ability. His comfort finishing through contact at age 19 suggests a ceiling that could anchor San Antonio's post-Wembanyama window alongside Castle and Fox.

What It Covers

Bill Simmons and Rob Mahoney conduct a comprehensive NBA power poll ranking all 30 teams from worst to first, covering Washington through the Boston Celtics. The 105-minute conversation spans fake trades, philosophical debates about team-building, the 2025 draft class potential, Derek Queen's emergence, Jaylen Brown's leap, and Dylan Harper's early-season brilliance in San Antonio.

Key Questions Answered

  • Sacramento Kings roster destruction: The Kings executed one of the worst multi-year roster demolitions in recent NBA history — drafting Carter over Zach Edey and Scoot McCain, signing DeRozan to $74M with no fit, extending Sabonis $186M early, trading De'Aaron Fox for Zach LaVine plus two picks, and signing Schroeder $29M only to immediately sign Russell Westbrook over him. Despite zero tradable assets beyond Sabonis, they now project as a top-three lottery team in a historically deep draft.
  • Derek Queen trade structure failure: New Orleans acquiring Derek Queen from Atlanta without lottery protection on the conveyed pick represents a fireable offense in roster construction. Queen projects as a legitimate half-court offensive hub — comparable to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in his ability to manipulate defenders through unusual footwork and spin moves — but the unprotected pick likely becomes the most valuable asset in any Giannis Antetokounmpo trade sweepstakes, costing New Orleans enormous leverage at the worst possible time.
  • 2025 NBA Draft historical depth: The incoming draft class may rival 1996 — which produced eight eventual All-NBA players including three MVPs — with six players plausibly reaching All-NBA level: Ace Bailey, Cedric Howard, Dylan Harper, Cannibal, Edgecomb, and Derek Queen. The 1996 class produced Iverson, Kobe, Nash, Ray Allen, Stankovic, Marbury, Jermaine O'Neal, and Shareef Abdur-Rahim. Getting even four All-NBA players from one draft would rank among the top two or three deepest classes in league history.
  • Boston Celtics overachievement formula: Without Jayson Tatum, Boston runs a possession-volume offense generating 16 made threes per game — ranking second in offensive rating and first in threes made while sitting 30th in pace and free throw attempts. The key structural advantage is winning the possession battle nightly through elite offensive rebounding combined with low turnovers, then amplifying that margin through three-point volume. Every rotation player carries a specific motivation: contract years, reduced roles previously, or first real NBA opportunity.
  • Dylan Harper evaluation framework: San Antonio's second overall pick operates in a rare NBA developmental luxury — a contending team that does not need him yet, making every contribution a bonus rather than a necessity. Harper gets to the rim against NBA defenders through footwork and body control rather than pure speed or strength, drawing comparisons to a running back's cutting ability. His comfort finishing through contact at age 19 suggests a ceiling that could anchor San Antonio's post-Wembanyama window alongside Castle and Fox.
  • Miami Heat Rozier trade precedent: Charlotte allegedly knew about Terry Rozier's gambling investigation before trading him to Miami, costing the Heat their 2027 first-round pick under league rules that prevent them from recovering the asset despite acquiring him under false pretenses. The league's refusal to clarify trade eligibility until after deals are submitted creates an unworkable situation for Miami's front office. If the pick were returned, Miami could trade Rozier's $26M expiring contract to pursue Giannis, Jaren Jackson, or Kawhi Leonard before the deadline.
  • Norm Powell roster construction lesson: Multiple franchises — the Clippers, Blazers, and Raptors — have cycled through Powell and undervalued his specific skill set: reliable crunch-time scoring against quality opponents, improving defense, and dead-eye shooting. The Clippers trading Powell for the Collins and Bogdanovic expirings effectively cost them 10 points per game of crunch-time production, which alone explains their collapse from playoff contender to lottery team. Powell's value compounds specifically against good teams, making him most useful precisely when teams need him most.

Notable Moment

Simmons and Mahoney calculate that when LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and Austin Reeves share the floor together this season, the Lakers post a minus-8.9 net rating — yet Reeves averages 29 points per game in the 104 minutes LeBron sits. They then seriously debate whether Reeves headlining a Giannis trade package makes basketball sense, which both acknowledge is genuinely unprecedented territory.

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