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Sean Carroll's Mindscape

318 | Edward Miguel on the Developing Practice of Development Economics

80 min episode · 2 min read
·
Edward Miguel

Episode

80 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Health & Wellness, Investing, Fundraising & VC

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • Deworming Cost-Effectiveness: Treating intestinal worm infections costs under one dollar per child annually, increases school attendance significantly, and generates 10% higher adult earnings decades later—demonstrating extraordinary return on investment for health interventions in developing regions.
  • Cash Transfer Multipliers: One-time transfers of $1,000 to poor Kenyan households generate economic multipliers exceeding the initial amount because recipients spend 90% immediately, stimulating local businesses and employment while reducing infant mortality by 40% in recipient areas.
  • Temperature and Social Behavior: Laboratory experiments in Nairobi show people in rooms heated to 30°C (86°F) exhibit 50% higher antisocial behavior, destroying others' payoffs more frequently, suggesting climate warming may increase conflict risk by 40% globally over coming decades.
  • Cultural Persistence Measurement: UN diplomats from high-corruption countries accumulate significantly more unpaid parking tickets in New York City than diplomats from low-corruption nations, demonstrating cultural norms persist even when individuals relocate to different institutional environments with enforcement mechanisms.
  • Long-Term Study Design: Following 6,000 Kenyan participants for 27 years with 83-84% response rates across treatment and control groups enables measurement of intervention effects on lifetime earnings, migration patterns, and occupational choices—revealing impacts invisible in short-term evaluations.

What It Covers

Edward Miguel discusses development economics research in Sub-Saharan Africa, demonstrating how randomized controlled trials prove cash transfers, deworming programs, and targeted interventions dramatically improve health outcomes and economic prosperity in poor countries.

Key Questions Answered

  • Deworming Cost-Effectiveness: Treating intestinal worm infections costs under one dollar per child annually, increases school attendance significantly, and generates 10% higher adult earnings decades later—demonstrating extraordinary return on investment for health interventions in developing regions.
  • Cash Transfer Multipliers: One-time transfers of $1,000 to poor Kenyan households generate economic multipliers exceeding the initial amount because recipients spend 90% immediately, stimulating local businesses and employment while reducing infant mortality by 40% in recipient areas.
  • Temperature and Social Behavior: Laboratory experiments in Nairobi show people in rooms heated to 30°C (86°F) exhibit 50% higher antisocial behavior, destroying others' payoffs more frequently, suggesting climate warming may increase conflict risk by 40% globally over coming decades.
  • Cultural Persistence Measurement: UN diplomats from high-corruption countries accumulate significantly more unpaid parking tickets in New York City than diplomats from low-corruption nations, demonstrating cultural norms persist even when individuals relocate to different institutional environments with enforcement mechanisms.
  • Long-Term Study Design: Following 6,000 Kenyan participants for 27 years with 83-84% response rates across treatment and control groups enables measurement of intervention effects on lifetime earnings, migration patterns, and occupational choices—revealing impacts invisible in short-term evaluations.

Notable Moment

Miguel reveals the worm wars controversy stemmed from a coding error he made calculating spillover effects between three to six kilometers, which increased statistical uncertainty but left the core findings on direct health and education benefits intact and scientifically robust.

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Episode Transcript

Hello, everyone. Welcome to the Mindscape podcast. I'm your host, Sean Carroll. I don't know if any of you out there are fans of the webcomic Girl Genius. I'm a huge fan of Girl Genius. It's a comic by Phil and Katia Folio, the artists, And it tells a story it's been going on for years now. So if you wanna, like, take a weekend off and catch up if you haven't read it, there's plenty of material there. And a very complicated story with a lot of moving parts, but it's a kind of a steampunk almost medieval setting. So there are dragons and there are swords, but there's also science of a sort, but it's kind of fantasy science. So rather than just ordinary scientists, they have mad scientists called Sparks in the comic, and there's a lot of jokes. It's a it's a mostly humor filled webcomic. One of the characters, a minor character in Girl Genius, is presented as a mad social scientist. Rather than most of the mad scientists who are, you know, building death rays and flying machines. He's experimenting on people. And even within the comic, they say, like, you don't meet a lot of mad social scientists. But at one point, there's a place where the mad social scientist is explaining what a soft hearted guy he is. And as evidence, he says, you know, on Christmas time, I sometimes like to take the children that I'm experimenting on out of their container tanks and give them presents for Christmas. And the other, you know, the mad scientists are portrayed as pretty, devilish people most of the time anyway. The other characters look at him in horror at the idea of children in container tanks and he says, oh, don't worry, not the control group. So the joke, of course, is that if you're a mad social scientist, you have to do experiments on human beings, but then there's other people who you don't experiment on. That's the control group, and you just leave them in their container tanks, even for Christmas. And the reason I'm telling this extended, not especially humorous anecdote, is because it's not completely divorced from the reality of being a social scientist. The methodologies that are accessible to you are just different than those that are accessible to physicists or biologists or chemists, right, where you can literally run trials over and over again changing conditions in whatever ways you want because social scientists have to deal with human beings and human beings actually have some rights. That's certainly not an insuperable barrier. You can do things that, people volunteer for, psychologists do it all the time, but also you can just study what happens in the world. Right? And again, many kinds of science need to do that. If you're an archaeologist or you're a cosmologist for that matter, you're not running experiments over and over again. You don't redo the universe. You just look at …

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