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The Supreme Court struck down a bunch of Trump's tariffs. Now what?

25 min episode · 2 min read
·
Cara Dyer,Kathleen Clawson,Maureen Thorson

Episode

25 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Investing, Fundraising & VC, Economics & Policy

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • Legal basis invalidated: The Supreme Court ruled that IEEPA's language authorizing presidents to "regulate importation" cannot support broad, sweeping across-the-board tariffs. Chief Justice Roberts wrote that those words "cannot bear such weight." Businesses that paid tariffs since Liberation Day now have legal standing to pursue refunds, but no official refund process yet exists.
  • Three refund pathways for importers: Companies can pursue refunds via: (1) a post-summary correction filed within 300 days of import directly with US Customs, (2) a federal lawsuit against the US government, or (3) waiting for a potential official Trump administration refund program. Each path carries different timelines, costs, and uncertainty levels worth evaluating with a customs attorney.
  • Tariff refund trading market: A secondary market emerged in November where importers sell their potential refund claims to hedge funds at a discount. Pre-ruling, claims traded at roughly 20 cents on the dollar. After the Supreme Court decision, prices jumped to approximately 40 cents on the dollar, reflecting higher refund probability but still discounting for administrative complexity and delays.
  • Section 122 as replacement tool: Trump immediately announced a new 10% across-the-board tariff under Section 122, a Cold War-era law never previously used for tariffs. Section 122 allows tariffs up to 15% but mandates expiration after 150 days. Legal challenges are anticipated, and trade lawyers are already debating whether presidents can simply re-impose the tariff repeatedly after each expiration.
  • Consumer refunds remain unlikely: Individuals who paid higher prices for imported goods indirectly through retail markups have no clear refund pathway. Only consumers who paid tariffs directly to US Customs — such as personal imports subject to customs bills — could potentially file claims, though even that route remains legally untested and unclear under current customs law.

What It Covers

The US Supreme Court rules Trump's sweeping IEEPA-based tariffs illegal, invalidating over $100 billion collected from importers worldwide. The episode examines refund pathways for businesses and consumers, a new hedge fund market trading tariff refund claims, and Trump's immediate pivot to a replacement 10% tariff under Section 122.

Key Questions Answered

  • Legal basis invalidated: The Supreme Court ruled that IEEPA's language authorizing presidents to "regulate importation" cannot support broad, sweeping across-the-board tariffs. Chief Justice Roberts wrote that those words "cannot bear such weight." Businesses that paid tariffs since Liberation Day now have legal standing to pursue refunds, but no official refund process yet exists.
  • Three refund pathways for importers: Companies can pursue refunds via: (1) a post-summary correction filed within 300 days of import directly with US Customs, (2) a federal lawsuit against the US government, or (3) waiting for a potential official Trump administration refund program. Each path carries different timelines, costs, and uncertainty levels worth evaluating with a customs attorney.
  • Tariff refund trading market: A secondary market emerged in November where importers sell their potential refund claims to hedge funds at a discount. Pre-ruling, claims traded at roughly 20 cents on the dollar. After the Supreme Court decision, prices jumped to approximately 40 cents on the dollar, reflecting higher refund probability but still discounting for administrative complexity and delays.
  • Section 122 as replacement tool: Trump immediately announced a new 10% across-the-board tariff under Section 122, a Cold War-era law never previously used for tariffs. Section 122 allows tariffs up to 15% but mandates expiration after 150 days. Legal challenges are anticipated, and trade lawyers are already debating whether presidents can simply re-impose the tariff repeatedly after each expiration.
  • Consumer refunds remain unlikely: Individuals who paid higher prices for imported goods indirectly through retail markups have no clear refund pathway. Only consumers who paid tariffs directly to US Customs — such as personal imports subject to customs bills — could potentially file claims, though even that route remains legally untested and unclear under current customs law.

Notable Moment

A small toy business owner revealed that Chinese manufacturers offered to falsify shipping manifests — understating container quantities or product values — as a workaround to reduce tariff costs. She declined, citing legal risk, but confirmed the practice was openly proposed by multiple factories she worked with.

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Episode Transcript

This is PLANET MONEY from NPR. Okay, Cara. How do you feel? You you saw? Yes. I saw the news, and I I I never thought this day would come, honestly. It's like, was the supreme court ever gonna rule on it? Like, you know, were we gonna be in this kind of, like, purgatory forever? But it has come, so I'm so happy. This is Cara Dyer. She is a small business owner in The US. And the big news, the US Supreme Court has said that president Trump's giant sweeping tariffs that he imposed early last year are illegal. Donezo. This is huge news. We are talking about his tariffs on products from all over the world, almost every single country, a different percentage tariff on each of them. And those percentages, they've gone up and down and up and down for more than a year. But from early on, there were lawsuits against president Trump. States and companies and individuals saying that these tariffs, they are not legal. And now a lot of businesses and people like Cara, they're thinking maybe they could get some of the money they spent on those tariffs back. Okay. Wait. So so what do you do now? Well, I've kept meticulous records, and I will be asking for yeah. Yeah. I did. Just, Every little fee and tariff? Yes. Yes. Absolutely. Absolutely. So, like, okay. Now they've ruled that it's illegal. Now we need to take some action and get those refunds back into the hands of of businesses. So far, The US has collected more than a $100,000,000,000 under these now illegal tariffs. That's a lot of refunds. Yeah. Give back. Right. Yes. How do you how do you know what to do? How to go about it? I don't. Yeah. But now is when they would have to, like, start, and figure out a process to get get those refunds going. So, I'm also hopeful that they'll you know, that that will happen. That they will give you very clear guidance on how to get you back. Might entail a little digging on your part, if I had to guess. Hello and welcome to Planet Money. I'm Jeff Guo. And I'm Sarah Gonzalez. And I'm Mary Childs. About a year ago, the Trump administration tried to use a law that was not designed for tariffs to impose the biggest, most disruptive tariffs we've seen in about a century. This morning, the Supreme Court came back and said, no. You can't use that law to impose tariffs. Today on the show, why are the tariffs illegal? And what does this mean for businesses? For Cara? For the rest of us? Are any of us gonna get refunds? Yeah. And also, what does this mean for the Trump administration's whole tariff policy? And what's up with this new 10% tariff you just announced today? Also, a market for tariff refunds is already booming. This message comes from Capital One. Capital One …

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