The Supreme Court struck down a bunch of Trump's tariffs. Now what?

What It Covers

The US Supreme Court rules Trump's sweeping IEEPA-based tariffs illegal, invalidating over $100 billion collected from importers worldwide. The episode examines refund pathways for businesses and consumers, a new hedge fund market trading tariff refund claims, and Trump's immediate pivot to a replacement 10% tariff under Section 122.

Key Questions Answered

• •Legal basis invalidated: The Supreme Court ruled that IEEPA's language authorizing presidents to "regulate importation" cannot support broad, sweeping across-the-board tariffs. Chief Justice Roberts wrote that those words "cannot bear such weight." Businesses that paid tariffs since Liberation Day now have legal standing to pursue refunds, but no official refund process yet exists.
• •Three refund pathways for importers: Companies can pursue refunds via: (1) a post-summary correction filed within 300 days of import directly with US Customs, (2) a federal lawsuit against the US government, or (3) waiting for a potential official Trump administration refund program. Each path carries different timelines, costs, and uncertainty levels worth evaluating with a customs attorney.
• •Tariff refund trading market: A secondary market emerged in November where importers sell their potential refund claims to hedge funds at a discount. Pre-ruling, claims traded at roughly 20 cents on the dollar. After the Supreme Court decision, prices jumped to approximately 40 cents on the dollar, reflecting higher refund probability but still discounting for administrative complexity and delays.
• •Section 122 as replacement tool: Trump immediately announced a new 10% across-the-board tariff under Section 122, a Cold War-era law never previously used for tariffs. Section 122 allows tariffs up to 15% but mandates expiration after 150 days. Legal challenges are anticipated, and trade lawyers are already debating whether presidents can simply re-impose the tariff repeatedly after each expiration.
• •Consumer refunds remain unlikely: Individuals who paid higher prices for imported goods indirectly through retail markups have no clear refund pathway. Only consumers who paid tariffs directly to US Customs — such as personal imports subject to customs bills — could potentially file claims, though even that route remains legally untested and unclear under current customs law.