How to win a penalty shootout (with game theory)

What It Covers

Planet Money explores how game theory transforms soccer penalty shootouts, using economist Ignacio Palacios-Huerta's penalty database and the 2008 Champions League final to show how mixed strategies and data analysis now determine outcomes.

Key Questions Answered

• •Mixed Strategy Execution: Elite penalty kickers must randomize shots between strong and weak sides to avoid predictability. Laboratory studies show most people fail at true randomization, but professional footballers demonstrate near-perfect random sequencing — proving mixed strategies work when stakes are high enough.
• •Data-Driven Preparation: Palacios-Huerta built a database of thousands of penalties starting in the 1990s, identifying specific tendencies like Cristiano Ronaldo shooting right when pausing mid-run-up. Teams now print these opponent-specific reports on goalkeepers' water bottles before shootouts.
• •Shooting Order Advantage: Historically, the team shooting first in a penalty shootout won 60% of the time, because second-shooting teams face higher psychological pressure needing to match each score. However, as penalty reports became universal among top teams, this first-mover advantage has measurably diminished.
• •Preparation Protocol: Teams now simulate shootout pressure in training by piping in recorded crowd noise and requiring all players to practice penalties under those conditions. Players should also pause several seconds before striking — rushing, as England's Jamie Carragher did in 2006, statistically reduces scoring probability.