How to win a penalty shootout (with game theory)

This message comes from Edward Jones, where they believe rich is about taking care of what gives your life meaning. That's why your financial advisor personalizes your plan to help you preserve your progress and create something that lasts. Let's find your rich. Edward Jones, member SIPC. This is Planet Money from NPR. Last week, one of the best soccer players of all time did something kind of shocking. Lionel Messi missed a penalty kick. The top World Cup score of all time is actually a slightly below average penalty kicker. He's in the running for missing the most penalties of any player in World Cup history. Somehow, Messi is worse at scoring when he's just 12 yards from the goal with no one but the goalie between him and the back of the net. And that might be because there's another skill at play when it comes to penalty kicks. It's not just about how good you are at kicking the ball. It's about something we here at Planet Money love, game theory. Hello, and welcome to Planet Money. I'm Jeff Guo. The use of game theory in soccer penalties might be one of the most interesting applications of economic theory, like, ever. Today on the show, we hear from the folks at the Soccernomics podcast about the art and strategy of the penalty kick. In a World Cup year where there might be more games going to penalties than ever before, we're gonna learn how game theory has changed the sport. This message comes from Schwab. With the new Schwab teen investor account, teens can gain hands on investing experience. It's co owned by you and your teen, so you can monitor the account while your teen learns how to invest and manage money. Learn more at Schwab dot com. This message comes from BetterHelp. People talk about mental health more openly now, but asking for help can still feel hard. BetterHelp's 2026 state of stigma report surveyed 2,000 Americans and found that 85% believe getting support is wise, yet 74% say society discourages people from doing so. Don't let stigma stand in the way of support. Start therapy with BetterHelp. Visit betterhelp.com/npr. This message comes from Capital One. Capital One offers checking accounts with no fees or minimums. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. See capital1.com/bankguy for details. Capital One NA, member FDIC. Okay. So the whole point of game theory is to come up with and analyze winning strategies. And where it gets fun is that in any game, your opponent, of course, is trying to anticipate your strategy and vice versa. So your strategy depends on what you think, they think, you think, they think, you think, they think they're gonna do. Right? Like, game theory is probably the best subject to study if you're an overthinker. And nowhere are these mind games more cinematically laid out than on the soccer field when it's time for a penalty kick. Stefan Schmeinske is one of the …