Trump Bullies Allies, Powell Stays Put, and Kalshi Faces Criminal Charges

What It Covers

Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway cover five major stories: Trump's failed coalition-building for the Iran conflict driving oil prices above $91/barrel, Jerome Powell's defiant Fed tenure extension, Meta's Horizon Worlds collapse after $70B spent, Anthropic overtaking OpenAI in enterprise AI market share from 40/60 to 73/27, and Kalshi facing Arizona criminal charges over unlicensed gambling operations.

Key Questions Answered

• •Enterprise AI Market Shift: Anthropic has captured 73% of new enterprise AI spending versus OpenAI's 27%, reversing a 60/40 OpenAI advantage from December 2024. Anthropic's ARR reached $19B, adding $6B in February alone. Enterprise AI revenue sector-wide exploded from $1.7B to $37B since 2023. Companies evaluating AI vendors should recognize Anthropic now wins three out of four first-time enterprise buyers.
• •Fed Chair Leverage: Powell's decision to remain as Fed governor beyond his chair term — not just chair — gives him structural board influence regardless of who holds the title. In any 12-person governing body, the most credible voice drives consensus decisions. Trump's public attacks on Powell backfired: Senate Republican Tom Tillis is blocking the replacement confirmation, meaning Powell effectively controls monetary policy indefinitely.
• •Autonomous Vehicle Custody Play: Uber holds 75% U.S. rideshare market share, positioning it as the dominant distribution layer for autonomous vehicles rather than a casualty. By controlling consumer relationships, Uber can extract deal terms from Waymo, Rivian, and others — similar to Apple extracting $20B annually from Google for default search placement. Investors should watch Uber as potentially the largest autonomous winner, not Tesla or Waymo.
• •Prediction Market Regulation Gap: Kalshi faces four criminal counts in Arizona for operating without a gambling license, establishing the first criminal prosecution of a prediction market. States have regulated gambling for decades, and prediction markets betting on contingent future events fall within existing legal definitions. The actionable framework: prediction markets need age-gating to 21, federal licensing standards, and prohibitions on markets incentivizing real-world harm like war outcomes.
• •OpenAI Focus Failure: OpenAI's Sora social app launched at number one in the App Store but dropped 32% month-over-month in December and 45% in January, generating under $500K monthly while costing an estimated $15M daily to operate. The broader lesson: AI companies that pursue consumer social products while losing enterprise share repeat Google's early-2000s distraction pattern. New COO Fidji Simo's mandate mirrors Ruth Porat's Google intervention — cut experiments, defend core revenue.
• •Coalition Dependency in Geopolitics: Trump's unilateral Iran strategy illustrates that the U.S. represents only 30% of global GDP, making solo military and economic action structurally weak. George H.W. Bush assembled 31 nations for Gulf War I and recovered 62% of the $70B cost from allies. Demanding warships from allies already alienated by tariff and NATO disputes produced what analysts called a "global raspberry." Businesses with international supply chains should model scenarios where U.S. diplomatic leverage continues declining.