What are the key takeaways from this Odd Lots episode?

Key insights include: **Institutional liquidity gap:** Low on-platform volume figures — sometimes just $100,000–$150,000 traded — do not reflect actual available institutional capacity. Susquehanna will commit tens of millions of dollars in risk on a single contract regardless of printed volume, because prediction markets function primarily as price discovery mechanisms, not liquidity pools, making small-volume prices still reliable enough to trade against.; **Speed-to-market advantage:** Traditional futures listings take roughly one year to complete through exchanges like CME. Prediction market platforms can list a new contract within a single day. This compression makes prediction markets viable for hedging fast-moving, idiosyncratic risks — such as tariff exposure for a musical instrument importer — that conventional derivatives markets cannot address quickly enough.; **Off-platform block trades:** Institutional hedging trades can be structured as over-the-counter swaps that reference prediction market pricing data without appearing in on-platform volume statistics. Corporations seeking to hedge specific risks — regulatory changes, geopolitical events, commodity disruptions — can transact directly with Susquehanna through brokers, banks, or insurers acting as intermediaries.

What did Jeremy Malitz discuss on Odd Lots?

Jeremy Maletz, head of prediction markets at Susquehanna International Group, explains how the firm is acting as a liquidity bootstrapper for institutional adoption of prediction markets, moving beyond sports betting toward economically meaningful hedging instruments for corporations and financial institutions. Key topics include: **Institutional liquidity gap:** Low on-platform volume figures — sometimes just $100,000–$150,000 traded — do not reflect actual available institutional capacity. Susquehanna will commit tens of millions of dollars in risk on a single contract regardless of printed volume, because prediction markets function primarily as price discovery mechanisms, not liquidity pools, making small-volume prices still reliable enough to trade against.; **Speed-to-market advantage:** Traditional futures listings take roughly one year to complete through exchanges like CME. Prediction market platforms can list a new contract within a single day. This compression makes prediction markets viable for hedging fast-moving, idiosyncratic risks — such as tariff exposure for a musical instrument importer — that conventional derivatives markets cannot address quickly enough..

How long is this episode of Odd Lots?

This episode is 31 minutes long. SignalCast provides an AI-generated summary so you can get the key insights in about 3 minutes.

Odd Lots

Why Susquehanna Is Building a Prediction Markets Business

June 6, 2026

31 min episode · 2 min read

Jeremy Malitz

Episode

31 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Productivity, Investing, Startups

AI-Generated Summary

Published Jun 6, 2026

Key Takeaways

✓Institutional liquidity gap: Low on-platform volume figures — sometimes just $100,000–$150,000 traded — do not reflect actual available institutional capacity. Susquehanna will commit tens of millions of dollars in risk on a single contract regardless of printed volume, because prediction markets function primarily as price discovery mechanisms, not liquidity pools, making small-volume prices still reliable enough to trade against.
✓Speed-to-market advantage: Traditional futures listings take roughly one year to complete through exchanges like CME. Prediction market platforms can list a new contract within a single day. This compression makes prediction markets viable for hedging fast-moving, idiosyncratic risks — such as tariff exposure for a musical instrument importer — that conventional derivatives markets cannot address quickly enough.
✓Off-platform block trades: Institutional hedging trades can be structured as over-the-counter swaps that reference prediction market pricing data without appearing in on-platform volume statistics. Corporations seeking to hedge specific risks — regulatory changes, geopolitical events, commodity disruptions — can transact directly with Susquehanna through brokers, banks, or insurers acting as intermediaries.
✓Insider trading detection is easier in prediction markets: Unlike equities, where countless legitimate reasons exist to buy a stock, prediction market contracts have narrow, specific outcomes. Unusual directional flow on a contract like a specific political leadership change is far more conspicuous, making suspicious activity easier to identify and report. Regulated platforms with KYC requirements add a further structural deterrent absent from DeFi alternatives.
✓Market selection discipline: Susquehanna avoids "mentionables" — contracts that resolve based on whether specific words are spoken on podcasts or broadcasts — and any market where outcomes can be directly manipulated by participants. Focusing exclusively on regulated platforms with KYC, and on contracts tied to verifiable real-world events, reduces manipulation risk and protects institutional reputation when committing large capital positions.

What It Covers

Jeremy Maletz, head of prediction markets at Susquehanna International Group, explains how the firm is acting as a liquidity bootstrapper for institutional adoption of prediction markets, moving beyond sports betting toward economically meaningful hedging instruments for corporations and financial institutions.

Key Questions Answered

•Institutional liquidity gap: Low on-platform volume figures — sometimes just $100,000–$150,000 traded — do not reflect actual available institutional capacity. Susquehanna will commit tens of millions of dollars in risk on a single contract regardless of printed volume, because prediction markets function primarily as price discovery mechanisms, not liquidity pools, making small-volume prices still reliable enough to trade against.
•Speed-to-market advantage: Traditional futures listings take roughly one year to complete through exchanges like CME. Prediction market platforms can list a new contract within a single day. This compression makes prediction markets viable for hedging fast-moving, idiosyncratic risks — such as tariff exposure for a musical instrument importer — that conventional derivatives markets cannot address quickly enough.
•Off-platform block trades: Institutional hedging trades can be structured as over-the-counter swaps that reference prediction market pricing data without appearing in on-platform volume statistics. Corporations seeking to hedge specific risks — regulatory changes, geopolitical events, commodity disruptions — can transact directly with Susquehanna through brokers, banks, or insurers acting as intermediaries.
•Insider trading detection is easier in prediction markets: Unlike equities, where countless legitimate reasons exist to buy a stock, prediction market contracts have narrow, specific outcomes. Unusual directional flow on a contract like a specific political leadership change is far more conspicuous, making suspicious activity easier to identify and report. Regulated platforms with KYC requirements add a further structural deterrent absent from DeFi alternatives.
•Market selection discipline: Susquehanna avoids "mentionables" — contracts that resolve based on whether specific words are spoken on podcasts or broadcasts — and any market where outcomes can be directly manipulated by participants. Focusing exclusively on regulated platforms with KYC, and on contracts tied to verifiable real-world events, reduces manipulation risk and protects institutional reputation when committing large capital positions.

Notable Moment

Maletz recounted attempting to list a futures contract to help a musical instrument company hedge China tariff exposure during the first trade war. The listing process through a traditional exchange took nearly a year and ultimately failed — the same product could now launch on a prediction market platform within a single day.

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Episode Transcript

Odd lots is brought to you by VanEck. For years, investors basically forgot about real assets, energy, gold, and infrastructure. But look what's driving markets now. Central banks loading up on gold, massive CapEx cycles, currencies doing weird things. These assets are at the center of it. Racks, the VanEck real asset ETF, is an actively managed one stop shop for real assets spanning gold, commodities, natural resource equities, and more. Go to vaneck.com/raaxpod to learn more. Fun disclosures later in this episode. Being a small business owner isn't just a career, it's a calling. Chase for Business knows how much heart and effort go into building something of your own. Manage all your business finances from banking to payments to credit cards all in one place with Chase's digital tools, plus access online resources designed to help your business thrive. Learn more at chase.com/business. Chase for business. Make more of what's yours. The Chase mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply. JPMorgan Chase Bank, NA, member FDIC. Copyright 2026. JPMorgan Chase and Company. When you're running a business, the best days are the ones where priorities stay on track. For midsize and large companies, risk can affect multiple parts of the organization at once from property and liability to cyber and regulatory challenges. At that level, managing risk becomes an ongoing discipline. At The Hartford, the focus is on helping businesses manage risk before it turns into something more disruptive. And when losses do happen, that work is paired with insurance coverage shaped by years of underwriting, risk engineering, and claims experience. Learn more at the hartford.com/riskmitigation. Policies provided by Hartford Fire Insurance Company and its property and casualty affiliates, Hartford, Connecticut. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news. Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Jill Weisenthal. And I'm Tracy Alloway. So, Tracy, we're still rolling out shows from our live show on May 28 in New York City at City Winery. As we discussed in our last episode from the show, it had a sort of future of markets, future of trading theme to the night's conversation. Right. And if you're talking about future of markets and trading, we have to talk prediction markets. Right? Yeah. That's right. So in addition to the fact that there is the, quote, AI trade, unquote, the other big thing going on in the market is the sheer explosion of instruments with which people can trade. Right? So it's like you used to have stocks and bonds and options, and then the options started getting more exotic, like zero day options, which you love and and so forth. But now it's like, if you could think of something that would resolve in some way Mhmm. Whether it is snowfall in New York City, Tesla deliveries, or how long a halftime show is at the Super Bowl, there probably is a way to bet on it. Right. And so one of …

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