Goldman's Hatzius and Snider on the Outlook for 2026
Episode
46 min
Read time
2 min
Topics
Productivity, Investing, Fundraising & VC
AI-Generated Summary
Key Takeaways
- ✓AI GDP Contribution: AI infrastructure spending contributes nearly zero to measured GDP growth because goods are largely imported and semiconductors count as intermediate inputs, not investment, despite widespread claims of 50% contribution to economic growth in 2025.
- ✓Productivity Without Job Growth: Accelerating productivity growth at 2% annually allows 2.6% GDP expansion while unemployment stays flat at 4.5%, as efficiency gains offset output growth. AI adoption over a decade allows labor market adjustment without sustained unemployment increases.
- ✓Tariff Impact Absorption: Companies offset 2025 tariff costs through three mechanisms: passing 50 basis points to consumers as prices, restructuring supply chains and negotiating with suppliers, and improving internal efficiency. This prevented the expected margin compression that concerned analysts earlier in the year.
- ✓Earnings Concentration Reality: The top 10 stocks now represent 40% of S&P 500 market cap but only 33% of earnings, matching their market cap share from five years ago. The S&P 493 delivered consistent 15% returns annually, demonstrating broad market strength beyond mega-cap technology dominance.
What It Covers
Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius and equity strategist Ben Snider forecast 2026 economic outlook with 2.6% GDP growth, flat 4.5% unemployment, S&P target of 7,600, and debate AI's actual economic impact versus market expectations.
Key Questions Answered
- •AI GDP Contribution: AI infrastructure spending contributes nearly zero to measured GDP growth because goods are largely imported and semiconductors count as intermediate inputs, not investment, despite widespread claims of 50% contribution to economic growth in 2025.
- •Productivity Without Job Growth: Accelerating productivity growth at 2% annually allows 2.6% GDP expansion while unemployment stays flat at 4.5%, as efficiency gains offset output growth. AI adoption over a decade allows labor market adjustment without sustained unemployment increases.
- •Tariff Impact Absorption: Companies offset 2025 tariff costs through three mechanisms: passing 50 basis points to consumers as prices, restructuring supply chains and negotiating with suppliers, and improving internal efficiency. This prevented the expected margin compression that concerned analysts earlier in the year.
- •Earnings Concentration Reality: The top 10 stocks now represent 40% of S&P 500 market cap but only 33% of earnings, matching their market cap share from five years ago. The S&P 493 delivered consistent 15% returns annually, demonstrating broad market strength beyond mega-cap technology dominance.
Notable Moment
Hatzius reveals the October 2025 government shutdown will create a permanent gap in US unemployment data, breaking the continuous monthly series maintained since 1948, making economic analysis more challenging for future researchers studying this period.
Episode Transcript
You're being sold an AI future where you're obsolete or irrelevant. That vision is wrong. At Palantir, they're building AI that helps workers and unlocks their full potential. American workers are our nation's greatest strength. AI shouldn't eliminate them. It should elevate them. Palantir is here to tell their stories. From factories to hospitals, AI is freeing people from drudgery, letting them do what humans do best, create, solve, build. Palantir, making Americans irreplaceable. Support for the show comes from Public. On Public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto, and now generated assets, which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index, and lets you back test it against the S and P 500, then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com/market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com/market. Paid for by Public Investing, brokerage services by Open to the Public Investing Inc, member FINRA and SIPC, advisory services by Public Advisors LLC, SEC registered adviser, generated assets as an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com/disclosures. Introducing the all new Adobe Acrobat Studio, now with AI powered PDF spaces. Do more with PDFs than you ever thought possible. Need AI to turn a 100 pages of market research into five insights with a click? Do that with Acrobat. Need templates for a sales proposal that'll close that deal? Do that with Acrobat. Need an AI specialist to tailor the tone of your market report to sound real smart in real time? Do that with the all new Adobe Acrobat Studio. Learn more at adobe.com/ do that with Acrobat. Being a small business owner isn't just a career, it's a calling. Chase for business knows how much heart and effort go into building something of your own. Manage all your business finances from banking to payments to credit cards all in one place with their digital tools. Plus, access online resources designed to help your business thrive. Learn more at chase.com/business. Chase for business. Make more of what's yours. The Chase mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply. JPMorgan Chase Bank, NA. Member FDIC. Copyright 2025, JPMorgan Chase and Company. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news. Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. And I'm Joe Wiesenthal. Joe, we always start these the same with someone saying it's that time of year. And then I say it's the most wonderful …
Get the full transcript (10,059 words) + summary by email — free
One-time email with the complete transcript and AI summary of this episode. No account needed.
One email, no spam. We’ll also show you what SignalCast does.
You just read a 3-minute summary of a 43-minute episode.
Get Odd Lots summarized like this every Monday — plus up to 2 more podcasts, free.
Pick Your Podcasts — FreeKeep Reading
More from Odd Lots
Robert Friedland on the World's Monumental Shortage of Copper
Sep 12 · 69 min
The Meb Faber Show
Inside Goldman Sachs’ Alternatives Playbook (w/ Kristin Olson) | #621
Mar 6
More from Odd Lots
Why Bridgewater's CIO Says AI's Human Extinction Risk Is Real
Sep 11 · 65 min
Alt Goes Mainstream
AGM Unscripted: Goldman Sachs' Michael Bruun - Driving Value in Private Equity Through Network and Innovation
Feb 13
Books, tools, and gear mentioned in this episode
SignalCast may earn commission on purchases via these links.
Tools
“SPONSORS: Public, url: public.com/market”
company
“Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius and equity strategist Ben Snider forecast 2026 economic outlook”
“SPONSORS: CVS Caremark, url: cmk.co/stories”
More from Odd Lots
We summarize every new episode. Want them in your inbox?
Robert Friedland on the World's Monumental Shortage of Copper
Why Bridgewater's CIO Says AI's Human Extinction Risk Is Real
The Rise of Organized Retail Crime at Big Box Stores
Why Money Launderers Love $100 Bills
Why Laser Beams Are the Hottest New Tech in Defense
Similar Episodes
Related episodes from other podcasts
The Meb Faber Show
Mar 6
Inside Goldman Sachs’ Alternatives Playbook (w/ Kristin Olson) | #621
Alt Goes Mainstream
Feb 13
AGM Unscripted: Goldman Sachs' Michael Bruun - Driving Value in Private Equity Through Network and Innovation
The Indicator
Jul 28
You had housing questions. An economist answered them.
The Indicator
Jul 22
Can Y’all Street outflank Wall Street?
The AI Breakdown
Jul 2
AI Companies Are Hiring More
Explore Related Topics
This podcast is featured in Best Finance Podcasts (2026) — ranked and reviewed with AI summaries.
Read this week's Investing & Markets Podcast Insights — cross-podcast analysis updated weekly.
You're clearly into Odd Lots.
Every Monday, we deliver AI summaries of the latest episodes from Odd Lots and 192+ other podcasts. Free for one show.
Start My Monday DigestNo credit card · Unsubscribe anytime