Daniel Yergin Sees a 'Different World' Emerging After the Hormuz Crisis

What It Covers

Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global and author of *The Prize*, analyzes the structural energy shifts triggered by the 2026 Strait of Hormuz closure, covering physical versus futures market divergence, LNG supply chains, drone warfare as a geopolitical equalizer, AI electricity demand, and a permanently elevated global energy security risk premium.

Key Questions Answered

• •Physical vs. Futures Market Divergence: During the Hormuz crisis, dated Brent (physical delivery price) and front-month futures diverged at an unprecedented scale — futures markets priced a swift resolution while physical markets reflected acute shortages. Energy investors should monitor physical spot premiums as a more reliable real-time stress indicator than futures during geopolitical supply disruptions.
• •Hormuz Recovery Timeline: Even after a ceasefire, full oil market normalization takes roughly two months minimum, with broader petrochemical and refinery disruption recovery extending up to two-thirds of a year. Investors and procurement managers should build extended supply buffers and avoid assuming rapid normalization when pricing post-conflict commodity exposure.
• •LNG Strategic Repositioning: US LNG now represents 75% of the value of all US semiconductor exports and twice Hollywood's export value. With Qatar's output damaged for years, US LNG faces structurally higher demand. Energy planners should treat US LNG capacity expansion — projected to grow the global LNG market 50% by 2040 — as a core infrastructure investment thesis.
• •Drone Warfare as Energy Security Variable: Iran's use of low-cost drones to effectively control the Strait of Hormuz — even against superior US military force — establishes a new threat model for energy infrastructure. Energy security planners should now price in drone-enabled chokepoint risk across all major maritime oil transit routes, not just the Strait of Hormuz.
• •Inflationary Structural Shift: The post-2020 energy environment reverses decades of efficiency-driven supply chain cost reduction. Defense spending increases, production localization, and resource nationalism all add structural cost floors. Portfolio managers should embed a persistent energy security risk premium into long-duration commodity, infrastructure, and sovereign debt positions across Gulf-exposed markets.