Tariffs Ineffective Against US Trade Deficit? & Family Feud Over Reese’s Recipe
Episode
28 min
Read time
2 min
Topics
Relationships, Investing, Fundraising & VC
AI-Generated Summary
Key Takeaways
- ✓Tariff Burden Distribution: A New York Federal Reserve study found 90% of Trump's tariff costs fall on US companies and consumers, not foreign exporters. JPMorgan data shows mid-sized US businesses with $10M–$1B revenue saw tariff costs triple in one year, directly contradicting the administration's claim that trading partners absorb these costs.
- ✓Trade Deficit Workaround: Importers neutralized tariff pressure through three mechanisms: rerouting supply chains from China (down 30%) to Mexico and Vietnam, exploiting tariff exemptions on high-volume categories like pharmaceuticals and electronics, and front-loading inventory before Liberation Day. The physical goods deficit still grew 6% inflation-adjusted despite a 13% average tariff rate.
- ✓Resale Market Timing: eBay acquired Depop from Etsy for $1.2 billion to capture Gen Z buyers — 90% of Depop's 7 million users are under 34. Resale marketplaces are expanding due to squeezed household incomes, anti-fast-fashion sentiment, and sustainability concerns, making secondhand retail a mainstream rather than niche retail channel.
- ✓Amazon vs. Walmart Revenue Reality: Amazon reported $717 billion in 2025 revenue versus Walmart's $713 billion, but removing AWS cloud computing reduces Amazon's figure to $588 billion — well below Walmart. Amazon's revenue grew 12.4% annually versus Walmart's 4.7%, yet Amazon shares are down 10% year-to-date while Walmart gained 14%.
- ✓Chocolate Labeling Standards: FDA regulations require milk chocolate to contain at least 10% chocolate liquor, 12% milk solids, and 3.39% milk fat. Consumers can verify product reformulation by checking whether packaging still lists "milk chocolate" — Rolo, Mr. Goodbar, and Almond Joy have quietly dropped that designation, signaling ingredient changes Hershey publicly downplays.
What It Covers
Morning Brew Daily covers the US trade deficit reaching $901.5 billion annually despite Trump's tariff regime raising average rates from 2.6% to 13%, plus Hershey's recipe controversy, Etsy selling Depop to eBay for $1.2 billion, Amazon surpassing Walmart in revenue, and rising elite lawyer billing rates.
Key Questions Answered
- •Tariff Burden Distribution: A New York Federal Reserve study found 90% of Trump's tariff costs fall on US companies and consumers, not foreign exporters. JPMorgan data shows mid-sized US businesses with $10M–$1B revenue saw tariff costs triple in one year, directly contradicting the administration's claim that trading partners absorb these costs.
- •Trade Deficit Workaround: Importers neutralized tariff pressure through three mechanisms: rerouting supply chains from China (down 30%) to Mexico and Vietnam, exploiting tariff exemptions on high-volume categories like pharmaceuticals and electronics, and front-loading inventory before Liberation Day. The physical goods deficit still grew 6% inflation-adjusted despite a 13% average tariff rate.
- •Resale Market Timing: eBay acquired Depop from Etsy for $1.2 billion to capture Gen Z buyers — 90% of Depop's 7 million users are under 34. Resale marketplaces are expanding due to squeezed household incomes, anti-fast-fashion sentiment, and sustainability concerns, making secondhand retail a mainstream rather than niche retail channel.
- •Amazon vs. Walmart Revenue Reality: Amazon reported $717 billion in 2025 revenue versus Walmart's $713 billion, but removing AWS cloud computing reduces Amazon's figure to $588 billion — well below Walmart. Amazon's revenue grew 12.4% annually versus Walmart's 4.7%, yet Amazon shares are down 10% year-to-date while Walmart gained 14%.
- •Chocolate Labeling Standards: FDA regulations require milk chocolate to contain at least 10% chocolate liquor, 12% milk solids, and 3.39% milk fat. Consumers can verify product reformulation by checking whether packaging still lists "milk chocolate" — Rolo, Mr. Goodbar, and Almond Joy have quietly dropped that designation, signaling ingredient changes Hershey publicly downplays.
Notable Moment
Elite law firm billing rates have surged 16% in a single year across the 50 largest US firms, with one California telecom compliance partner raising his hourly rate to $6,000 — a figure that generated no client pushback, compared to $1,500 being considered extreme just a decade ago.
Episode Transcript
So good. So good. So good. New spring arrivals are at Nordstrom Rack stores now. Get ready to save big with up to 60% off Rag and Bone, Marc Jacobs, Free People, and more. How did I not know Rack as Adidas? Because there's always something new. Join the Nordy Club to unlock exclusive discounts, shop new arrivals first, and more. Plus, buy online and pick up at your favorite rack store for free. Great brands, great prices. That's why you rack. Good morning, Virgilio Show. I'm Neil Freiman. And I'm Toby Howell. Today, have Reese's peanut butter cups been getting worse? Then has The US trade deficit been getting worse? It's Friday, February 20. Let's ride. Good morning and happy Friday. Wow. What a day at the Olympics. Yesterday, the US women's hockey team won the gold medal in an absolute thriller coming from behind to beat Canada in overtime. Elsewhere on the ice, Alyssa Liu's stellar free skate helped her become the first American woman to win figure skating gold in twenty four years. And it's even sweeter when you learn that she retired from the sport four years ago after being burnt out, only to return with a plan just to have the most fun possible. And finally, the newest Winter Olympic sport, skimo or ski mountaineering debuted yesterday, and it was total chaos in the best way. Yeah. No disrespect to, you know, these generational hockey hockey teams and figure skating gold medals, but I was very wrapped up in skimo. What a bizarre and painful sport. Run up a hill on skis, through an obstacle course, take your skis off, then put them on a bunch of times, then ski down again. I do love the difference between the Summer and Olympic games when it comes to admitting new sports. Oh, you want squash or MMA like sports enjoyed by millions of people in the Summer Games? Tough luck. Oh, you invented a thirty seventh new way to ski? You are into the Winter Olympics, baby. Although the summer games did let break dancing in, so maybe they're not as discerning as I'm making it out to be. Ski break dancing. It's coming in 2020, whatever the next Olympics are. And yes, we're gonna be locked in on Saturday for friend of the friend of the pod Cam Smith goes for ski mountaineering. And now a word from our sponsor, FlavCity. Toby, how are you hitting your protein macros these days? Every day, I eat six plain chicken breasts and drink a pint of egg whites. And is that fun for you? No. Maybe try FlavCity's all in one protein smoothies instead. They've got 25 grams of protein, 10 grams of collagen, and functional mushrooms. These protein smoothies provide quick delicious nutrition on the go. Just add milk or water, shake for twenty seconds, and you're all set. No blender required. They've got great flavors like banana bread, brownie batter, vanilla, and the new pepperminty …
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Books, tools, and gear mentioned in this episode
SignalCast may earn commission on purchases via these links. As an Amazon Associate, SignalCast earns from qualifying purchases.
Tools
“SPONSORS: Whoop at https://join.whoop.com/brewdaily”
“SPONSORS: Spectrum Business at https://spectrum.com/business”
“SPONSORS: FlavCity at https://go.shopflavcity.com/mbds”
Products
by Hershey
“Rolo, Mr. Goodbar, and Almond Joy have quietly dropped that designation, signaling ingredient changes Hershey publicly downplays.”
by Hershey
“Rolo, Mr. Goodbar, and Almond Joy have quietly dropped that designation, signaling ingredient changes Hershey publicly downplays.”
company
“Amazon surpassing Walmart in revenue, and Amazon reported $717 billion in 2025 revenue versus Walmart's $713 billion.”
“eBay acquired Depop from Etsy for $1.2 billion to capture Gen Z buyers — 90% of Depop's 7 million users are under 34.”
“Amazon surpassing Walmart in revenue, and Amazon reported $717 billion in 2025 revenue versus Walmart's $713 billion.”
“A New York Federal Reserve study found 90% of Trump's tariff costs fall on US companies and consumers, not foreign exporters.”
“JPMorgan data shows mid-sized US businesses with $10M–$1B revenue saw tariff costs triple in one year.”
“Etsy selling Depop to eBay for $1.2 billion.”
“eBay acquired Depop from Etsy for $1.2 billion to capture Gen Z buyers.”
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