Why manufacturing employment continues to fall

What It Covers

This Marketplace episode examines why U.S. manufacturing employment fell over 90,000 jobs in 2025 — its third consecutive year of decline — alongside shifting hiring practices away from resumes, food affordability trends over a century, and low-snowpack economic impacts on weather-dependent Colorado businesses.

Key Questions Answered

• •Manufacturing decline drivers: U.S. manufacturing lost over 25% of its workforce during the 2008–2009 recession and never fully recovered. Since 2023, two additional factors accelerate the decline: a weak single-family housing market suppressing demand for sawmills and furniture makers, and tariff-driven input cost increases hitting downstream steel users hardest.
• •Tariff uncertainty paralyzes hiring: Factory managers surveyed by the Institute for Supply Management report customers ordering in minimal increments specifically to avoid committing to higher-priced materials. Until order volumes increase, manufacturers have no incentive to staff up — meaning tariff policy unpredictability directly translates into hiring freezes across the sector.
• •Resume obsolescence in hiring: Recruiters across industries, not just tech, increasingly source candidates directly via LinkedIn and professional networks rather than reviewing application piles. AI-generated resumes and cover letters have made traditional submissions indistinguishable, pushing companies toward structured question responses, skills-based assessments, and paid work trials lasting days to weeks.
• •Food affordability long-term trend: Americans spent 42.5% of disposable income on food in 1901; by 2024 that figure dropped to 10.4%. This follows Engel's Law — as incomes rise, food's income share falls. One U.S. farmer fed 19 people in 1940; today that same farmer feeds approximately 170, driving the structural cost reduction.
• •Low snowpack cascades beyond ski resorts: Denver-area businesses demonstrate measurable snow-dependency: a car wash reported 10% revenue decline September–January 2024–25, while a snow removal company recorded 70% revenue loss. Summer rafting operators face a secondary impact — reduced snowmelt lowers river levels, potentially cutting peak-season revenue by 50% or more if seasons end in July.