Trump's tariffs take a toll

This podcast is supported by Odoo. Some say Odoo business management software is like fertilizer for businesses because the simple efficient software promotes growth. Others say Odoo is like a magic beanstalk because it scales with you and is magically affordable. And some describe Odoo's programs for manufacturing, accounting, and more as building blocks for creating a custom software suite. So Odoo is fertilizer, magic beanstalk building blocks for business. Odoo, exactly what businesses need. Sign up at odoo.com. That's odoo.com. This marketplace podcast is supported by Faye Gree Drinker, one of the largest law firms in Minnesota. With nearly 300 Minneapolis attorneys helping clients solve complex legal issues and meeting their goals in the Twin Cities and beyond, feygreedrinker.com. This economy is growing how? From American public media. This is Marketplace. In Los Angeles, I'm Colin Risdall. It is Monday today, thirteen, October. Good as always to have you along, everybody. Despite everything that is going on in this economy right now, tariffs, inflation, a sluggish job market, the National Association for Business Economics was out with a survey this morning that shows gross domestic product is expected to grow more than they had been thinking it would be growing back in June. This summer, that number was 1.3% annualized, now 1.8%. And the Atlanta Fed has a GDP tracker that shows growth in the third quarter, again, annualized. Growth there could be as high as 3.8%. What's up with that? Marketplace's Henry App is on it. Here's how we calculate gross domestic product. Product. It's consumption plus government spending plus investment plus exports minus imports. That last piece pulled GDP down early in the year because businesses imported a ton of stuff to get ahead of tariffs. But after that, says Joanne Feeney at Advisors Capital Management We saw a reversal. We saw a significant drop in imports in the middle of the year. Leading GDP to rebound. But it wasn't just imports. The next piece of the equation is capital investment, and that's been huge thanks to the build out of AI data centers, Feeney says. These are expensive facilities full of domestically designed and produced equipment, and that is absolutely having a significant impact on the investment numbers. It's also having a big positive impact on the stock market, and that's propping up consumer spending, especially among people who own stocks. Stephanie Kelton is a professor of economics at Stony Brook University. People at the very top have, through a sort of wealth effect, been powering consumption. As we've reported before, the top 10% of earners were responsible for as much as 50% of consumer spending for part of this year. That's pushed up GDP even as the next piece of the equation, government spending, has been a drag, Kelton says. Add all this together, and GDP looks pretty good for now. It doesn't feel sustainable to me. Shannon Grine is an economist at Wells Fargo. There's still just a lot of uncertainty in the economy, …