There are more unemployed people than job openings right now

What It Covers

The labor market shows concerning shifts as job openings drop to 6.5 million while unemployment claims jump to 213,000 weekly. Black unemployment rises disproportionately to 7.5%, driven by federal workforce cuts and DEI program eliminations. China dramatically outpaces the US in energy infrastructure buildout, threatening American competitiveness in AI and advanced technologies.

Key Questions Answered

• •Labor Market Reversal: The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers has inverted from two openings per worker a few years ago to more unemployed people than available positions today. Professional and business services shed over 250,000 job openings in December alone, potentially driven by companies deploying AI instead of hiring new workers, creating particular challenges for young workers approaching double-digit unemployment rates.
• •Racial Employment Disparities: Black unemployment increased 1.4 percentage points to 7.5% over the past year while white unemployment remained flat. Federal workforce cuts through DOGE disproportionately affected black workers who comprised 18.5% of federal employees versus 13% of the overall workforce. Black women faced additional job losses from corporate DEI program eliminations at Education and Health and Human Services departments, with long-term wealth accumulation consequences.
• •AI Lending Assessment: Banks now evaluate borrower exposure to AI disruption as part of loan approval decisions, examining whether AI threatens the business model or creates cost-saving opportunities. Lenders assess if customers can substitute services with AI or if companies can use AI to reduce expenses tied to repeatable, digitizable tasks. This represents a fundamental shift in the capacity evaluation component of traditional lending criteria.
• •China Energy Dominance: China added electrical capacity equivalent to 40% of the entire US grid in 2024 alone and built more power generation in four years than America's total grid capacity. China operates 30 nuclear reactors under construction representing 50% of global development, plus solar farms like Talanton covering 162 square miles. US renewable growth projections dropped by half due to policy reversals, tariffs, and financing constraints.
• •US Grid Constraints: American energy infrastructure faces critical bottlenecks from decades of demand stagnation causing lost institutional knowledge for building new power generation. Permit delays, aging poles and wires, and turbine shortages force AI companies to scavenge airline and train engines for natural gas plants. The trillion-dollar investment planned over five years may prove insufficient to meet AI-driven demand growth and maintain technology leadership against China.