How small businesses navigated the ICE strike

January 30, 2026

26 min episode · 3 min read

Rachel Siegel,Catherine Rampell

Episode

26 min

Read time

3 min

AI-Generated Summary

Published Jan 31, 2026

Key Takeaways

✓Fed Chair Transition: Kevin Warsh, former Fed governor during the great recession, faces confirmation despite evolving positions on inflation policy. He previously criticized quantitative easing and Fed balance sheet expansion of trillions in mortgage-backed securities, arguing it enabled Congress to increase spending without facing higher borrowing costs. Senator Tom Tillis threatens to block confirmation unless criminal investigation of current chair Jerome Powell ends, citing concerns about Federal Reserve political independence.
✓Oil Investment Climate: ExxonMobil and Chevron report lowest annual profits since 2021, rejecting Trump's $100 billion Venezuela investment goal. Energy companies shifted from aggressive drilling to corporate discipline after pandemic oil prices went negative, focusing on free cash flow, debt reduction, and consistent dividends instead. Companies prefer investing in established operations like West Texas or Guyana over high-risk Venezuelan projects requiring significant legal and commercial framework changes plus higher oil prices.
✓Small Business Protest Economics: Business owners face difficult tradeoffs during national ICE strike shutdown, with costs ranging under $10,000 for single-day closures including lost sales and staff wages. New York's Fen Phen Donuts closed despite uncertain financial impact, while Colorado's Annette restaurant stayed open donating 10 percent weekend sales to immigrant rights organizations. Businesses balance solidarity with practical reality that employees need rent money at month's end, especially during January's slowest sales period.
✓Snow Day Parent Costs: Working mothers miss approximately two days of work monthly during heavy snow periods, bearing disprunt of childcare interruptions according to University of Nebraska Lincoln research. Parents burn through paid time off while simultaneously working to prevent business failures, paying for inaccessible childcare, and supervising virtual school. Baltimore's Dance on the Square filled 50 camp spots at $75 daily plus $25 aftercare in six minutes, demonstrating emergency childcare premium pricing.
✓Non-Alcoholic Beverage Market: US drinking rates hit record low of 54 percent with younger adults drinking even less, creating growth opportunity for alcohol-free establishments. Free Spirited in Alhambra prices craft mocktails at $8 including tax and tip, down from initial $16, controlling costs by juicing fresh ingredients in-house and making proprietary syrups rather than buying premade products. Winter through spring represents peak season for sober establishments, with summer being slowest period.

What It Covers

President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve chair, replacing Jerome Powell in May. Small businesses navigate national ICE strike shutdown decisions amid immigration enforcement protests. Major oil companies post lowest profits since 2021, resisting White House pressure for Venezuela investment. Working parents face financial and emotional costs during extended snow day school closures.

Key Questions Answered

•Fed Chair Transition: Kevin Warsh, former Fed governor during the great recession, faces confirmation despite evolving positions on inflation policy. He previously criticized quantitative easing and Fed balance sheet expansion of trillions in mortgage-backed securities, arguing it enabled Congress to increase spending without facing higher borrowing costs. Senator Tom Tillis threatens to block confirmation unless criminal investigation of current chair Jerome Powell ends, citing concerns about Federal Reserve political independence.
•Oil Investment Climate: ExxonMobil and Chevron report lowest annual profits since 2021, rejecting Trump's $100 billion Venezuela investment goal. Energy companies shifted from aggressive drilling to corporate discipline after pandemic oil prices went negative, focusing on free cash flow, debt reduction, and consistent dividends instead. Companies prefer investing in established operations like West Texas or Guyana over high-risk Venezuelan projects requiring significant legal and commercial framework changes plus higher oil prices.
•Small Business Protest Economics: Business owners face difficult tradeoffs during national ICE strike shutdown, with costs ranging under $10,000 for single-day closures including lost sales and staff wages. New York's Fen Phen Donuts closed despite uncertain financial impact, while Colorado's Annette restaurant stayed open donating 10 percent weekend sales to immigrant rights organizations. Businesses balance solidarity with practical reality that employees need rent money at month's end, especially during January's slowest sales period.
•Snow Day Parent Costs: Working mothers miss approximately two days of work monthly during heavy snow periods, bearing disprunt of childcare interruptions according to University of Nebraska Lincoln research. Parents burn through paid time off while simultaneously working to prevent business failures, paying for inaccessible childcare, and supervising virtual school. Baltimore's Dance on the Square filled 50 camp spots at $75 daily plus $25 aftercare in six minutes, demonstrating emergency childcare premium pricing.
•Non-Alcoholic Beverage Market: US drinking rates hit record low of 54 percent with younger adults drinking even less, creating growth opportunity for alcohol-free establishments. Free Spirited in Alhambra prices craft mocktails at $8 including tax and tip, down from initial $16, controlling costs by juicing fresh ingredients in-house and making proprietary syrups rather than buying premade products. Winter through spring represents peak season for sober establishments, with summer being slowest period.

Notable Moment

A Baltimore reporter working from home during week-long school closures describes the chaotic reality of simultaneous parenting and professional work, with her seven-year-old constantly interrupting despite attempts to hide. She notes the emotional toll of feeling inadequate at both roles, while acknowledging her privilege of remote work compared to parents requiring physical workplace presence or managing virtual school supervision.

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