#447 — The Unraveling of American Power

What It Covers

Geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan evaluates Trump's second term performance, arguing current tariff policies are causing American deindustrialization rather than reshoring manufacturing, while foreign policy decisions lack coherent strategy or congressional oversight.

Key Questions Answered

• •Tariff Impact on Manufacturing: Flat tariffs force complex manufacturers with thousands of production steps to relocate outside tariff zones to avoid paying duties multiple times, causing deindustrialization of high-skilled jobs while only simple products like furniture and plastics reshore successfully.
• •Industrial Construction Decline: Federal Reserve data shows industrial construction spending has been negative since tariff implementation in April, with businesses finishing existing projects but launching no new ones due to policy uncertainty from over 600 tariff changes since January 20.
• •Sinaloa Cartel Disruption Backfire: Biden administration prosecution successfully fractured the business-focused Sinaloa Cartel, but inadvertently empowered the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, which operates through extreme violence and territorial intimidation rather than bribery, increasing Mexico's murder rate and fentanyl production efficiency.
• •War Powers Act Challenge: Trump administration's Venezuela operations mark the first time a president has directly challenged the War Powers Act beyond the thirty day threshold without congressional authorization, with alleged war crimes including killing disarmed combatants in Caribbean waters.