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Making Sense

#440 — A World in Crisis

24 min episode · 2 min read
·
A World

Episode

24 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Investing, Startups, Leadership

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • Demographic shift reality: By 2100, seven Africans will exist for every one European, driving decades of migration across the narrow Mediterranean as first-generation middle class populations seek opportunities, fueling European populism and requiring massive infrastructure investments in rapidly urbanizing regions.
  • Order precedes freedom principle: American founders designed republic institutions with separation of powers across federal, state, and county levels to balance tyranny prevention with chaos avoidance. Countries lacking inherited institutional frameworks from colonial periods struggle to build governance systems from scratch, unlike America's inherited seventeenth-century English foundation.
  • Putin's unique danger profile: Unlike Cold War Soviet Politburo's cautious collegial rule by Stalin purge survivors, Putin governs alone as a risk-taker with no clear succession plan. His potential incapacitation could fragment Russia into Yugoslavia-style chaos, making him the strongest and most unpredictable Russian leader since 1953.
  • Russia's logistics failure exposed: Ukraine war revealed Russia excels at small-scale operations in Syria and Africa but lacks essential logistics for great power conflicts. Professional military operations require maintenance crews, supply chains, and support systems accompanying combat units, capabilities Russia demonstrated it fundamentally lacks despite appearing invincible before February 2022.

What It Covers

Robert Kaplan discusses his prediction of permanent global crisis, comparing today's interconnected but leaderless world to Weimar Germany's institutional paralysis, examining demographic pressures, urbanization trends, and Putin's Russia as the most dangerous leadership since Stalin.

Key Questions Answered

  • Demographic shift reality: By 2100, seven Africans will exist for every one European, driving decades of migration across the narrow Mediterranean as first-generation middle class populations seek opportunities, fueling European populism and requiring massive infrastructure investments in rapidly urbanizing regions.
  • Order precedes freedom principle: American founders designed republic institutions with separation of powers across federal, state, and county levels to balance tyranny prevention with chaos avoidance. Countries lacking inherited institutional frameworks from colonial periods struggle to build governance systems from scratch, unlike America's inherited seventeenth-century English foundation.
  • Putin's unique danger profile: Unlike Cold War Soviet Politburo's cautious collegial rule by Stalin purge survivors, Putin governs alone as a risk-taker with no clear succession plan. His potential incapacitation could fragment Russia into Yugoslavia-style chaos, making him the strongest and most unpredictable Russian leader since 1953.
  • Russia's logistics failure exposed: Ukraine war revealed Russia excels at small-scale operations in Syria and Africa but lacks essential logistics for great power conflicts. Professional military operations require maintenance crews, supply chains, and support systems accompanying combat units, capabilities Russia demonstrated it fundamentally lacks despite appearing invincible before February 2022.

Notable Moment

Kaplan recounts experiencing actual anarchy in Sierra Leone, Iraq, and Afghanistan, describing the complete absence of governing authority as the most terrifying political reality imaginable, far beyond what most people conceptualize when using the term casually in political discourse.

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Episode Transcript

Welcome to the Making Sense podcast. This is Sam Harris. Just a note to say that if you're hearing this, you're not currently on our subscriber feed, and will only be hearing the first part of this conversation. In order to access full episodes of the Making Sense podcast, you'll need to subscribe at samharris.org. We don't run ads on the podcast, and therefore it's made possible entirely through the support of our subscribers, so if you enjoy what we're doing here, please consider becoming one. I am here with Robert Kaplan. Robert, thanks for joining me. It's a pleasure to be here. So I've been a fan of your work for, many, many years. I think, like half of humanity, I was first introduced to you when you wrote that rather shocking article in The Atlantic in 1994, the the coming anarchy, which, I think was probably the most read piece in the magazine for quite some some time. I I don't know if it's been supplanted by anything in in recent years, but that article was everywhere. Yes. See, remember, it was the nineteen nineties, so it was photocopied. It was the most photocopied article of the decade because that was the technology there. Nowadays, you have so many outlets, so many things coming at you that it's hard for a piece really to rise above the rest, so to speak. Yeah. Yeah. Well, then and then you followed it up, if, memory serves, with the book length version, The Ends of the Earth, which I also read at the time, in hardback. So I've been I've been following you for quite some time. Let let before we jump in and talk about your new book and all manner of thing that, worries us, how do you describe your career and your focus as a a writer and journalist? Well, I started out as a journalist at a newspaper in Vermont, the Rutland Daily Herald, And then I bought a one way ticket to, Europe and North Africa. And I traveled the world essentially over the years. And I got bored with conventional journalism, you know, with standard narrowly focused journalism. When I was in Turkey, I didn't care how many F fifteen's the Turkish government was gonna buy from The United States. I wanted to visit the Museum of Anatolian Civilizations. I thought that would tell me more about Turkey than how many f fifteens they were gonna buy. So I just gradually emerged out of daily journalism, and I had an editor who really helped me in this regard, William Whitworth, who was the editor of the Atlantic Monthly for twenty years Mhmm. From 1980 to 2000. And he died last year. Without him, I don't know what I would have done, but he recognized something in me and, let me do the kind of writing I wanted to do, which was to incorporate with journalism philosophy, geography, history, literature. Yeah. Yeah. Well, you do that, …

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