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Investing for Beginners

Solar Is Now the Cheapest Power on Earth — with Peter Davidson

58 min episode · 2 min read
·
Peter Davidson

Episode

58 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Remote Work, Investing, Fundraising & VC

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • ✓Levelized Cost Crossover: Solar and wind have dropped below natural gas on a levelized cost basis, making renewables the cheapest way to add power to the U.S. grid. Over 90% of new U.S. power generation built in the first half of this year was wind, solar, and battery storage — a direct result of economics, not climate mandates.
  • ✓Electricity Demand Acceleration: U.S. electricity demand growth is shifting from 0.5% annually to 2.5% per year — a 5x increase — driven by data centers, EV adoption, home battery storage, and heat pump conversions replacing natural gas heating. Investors should model rising electricity prices for the next five to ten years as a baseline assumption.
  • ✓Deployment Speed Advantage: A permitted, grid-connected midsize solar farm (5–20 megawatts) can be built and operational in six to nine months. By contrast, new gas turbines from GE or Siemens currently carry a four-to-six-year delivery backlog. This speed differential makes distributed solar the fastest available solution to meet surging grid demand.
  • ✓Permitting Is the Primary Risk: The binding constraint on renewable growth is not economics or land availability — it is local permitting and NIMBYism. Onshore wind is effectively unbuildable across most of the Eastern U.S. due to town-level opposition. Investors evaluating solar or wind projects should treat fully permitted status as a critical de-risking milestone before committing capital.
  • ✓Interest Rate Sensitivity: Renewable energy projects finance large upfront construction costs and hold debt for 20–30 years, making them highly sensitive to interest rate changes. Investors should scrutinize existing debt costs and refinancing timelines on any project or company — assets carrying low-rate legacy debt that must refinance soon face materially compressed cash flows.

What It Covers

Peter Davidson, CEO of Aligned Climate Capital, explains how solar became the cheapest power source on Earth, covering the economics of renewable energy generation, the 5x surge in U.S. electricity demand driven by AI and data centers, permitting barriers to growth, and specific public and private investment opportunities across the clean energy transition.

Key Questions Answered

  • •Levelized Cost Crossover: Solar and wind have dropped below natural gas on a levelized cost basis, making renewables the cheapest way to add power to the U.S. grid. Over 90% of new U.S. power generation built in the first half of this year was wind, solar, and battery storage — a direct result of economics, not climate mandates.
  • •Electricity Demand Acceleration: U.S. electricity demand growth is shifting from 0.5% annually to 2.5% per year — a 5x increase — driven by data centers, EV adoption, home battery storage, and heat pump conversions replacing natural gas heating. Investors should model rising electricity prices for the next five to ten years as a baseline assumption.
  • •Deployment Speed Advantage: A permitted, grid-connected midsize solar farm (5–20 megawatts) can be built and operational in six to nine months. By contrast, new gas turbines from GE or Siemens currently carry a four-to-six-year delivery backlog. This speed differential makes distributed solar the fastest available solution to meet surging grid demand.
  • •Permitting Is the Primary Risk: The binding constraint on renewable growth is not economics or land availability — it is local permitting and NIMBYism. Onshore wind is effectively unbuildable across most of the Eastern U.S. due to town-level opposition. Investors evaluating solar or wind projects should treat fully permitted status as a critical de-risking milestone before committing capital.
  • •Interest Rate Sensitivity: Renewable energy projects finance large upfront construction costs and hold debt for 20–30 years, making them highly sensitive to interest rate changes. Investors should scrutinize existing debt costs and refinancing timelines on any project or company — assets carrying low-rate legacy debt that must refinance soon face materially compressed cash flows.

Notable Moment

Davidson points out that solar now represents 13% of U.S. electricity generation, up from just 1–2% a decade ago, and that some countries already hit 100% renewable generation at certain times of day — suggesting the U.S. could surpass 50% renewables within 20–30 years purely through economics.

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Episode Transcript

One of the topics we haven't done in a while is renewable energy. Everything's been going crazy right now. There seems to be so many different trends, so many different developments. What should investors know? What can we look out for? What kind of opportunities are out there? We're gonna discuss all of this and more with our special guests, so I will see you on the other side. You're listening to a quick ad. You know what else is quick? Selling your car on Carvana. Just put in your vehicle information, and we'll give you an offer. Done. No hassle. No negotiation, no guy from an online listing lowballing you, which means by the time I'm done explaining this, you could have basically done it. Still haven't started? Hey. Better late than ever. Sell your car today on Carvana. Pickup fees may apply. UKG is the workforce operating platform with unified HR, payroll, and workforce management. Proud very of action as work happens. Because when work works, everything works. Learn more at ukg.com/work. UKG, HR, pay, and workforce management. You're tuned in. You're tuned in. To the investing for beginners podcast. Investing for beginners podcast. The show for the long term investor. We cut through the noise to focus on what works. Compounding. Discipline. Discipline. And the conviction to buy wonderful businesses and stick with them. Your path to financial freedom. Start now. Welcome to the investing for beginners podcast. Have another fun episode for us today, and we have a special guest. We have Peter Davidson. He's the CEO at Aligned Climate Capital, which is an asset manager investing in companies and real assets driving the clean energy transition. You've built quite the career on the intersection of finance, infrastructure, and public policy. We could go on and on on on your background here, but I think that would fill up the whole episode. So thanks for joining us today for this podcast, Peter. Great to be here, Andrew. I'm looking forward to talking about solar, talking about the energy, energy transition, everything that's going on, and AI and energy demand. So, happy to be here and look forward to jumping in. Yeah. It's like a a wild time. What is something most investors don't understand about solar power? Your average investor, your average retail investor. Yeah. I think the biggest thing that I've dealt with in raising money and investing money and talking to investors, sophisticated institutional investors or or just regular people, is understanding what our energy system is and our energy mix. It's super, super complicated. And what is energy? I mean, it doesn't really exist. We all use it, but it's not a thing you can point to. There's not a brand name in energy. It's just like stuff that comes out when you plug into the wall, you get energy. Okay? But that's pretty complicated. So everybody knows kind of plants make energy somewhere, like coal plants or gas plants. You see them …

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