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Investing for Beginners

Back to the Basics: Circle of Competence

47 min episode · 2 min read
·

Episode

47 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Health & Wellness, Investing, Fundraising & VC

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • Circle of Competence Definition: The framework has two equally weighted components: knowing what you understand AND knowing what you do not. Most investing mistakes stem from the second part — investors overestimate familiarity with a business because they recognize its name or use its products, without understanding how it actually generates revenue or sustains competitive advantage.
  • Consumer Knowledge vs. Business Knowledge: Recognizing a brand does not equal understanding its business model. Kroger appears to be a grocery chain, but its real revenue driver is owned real estate — similar to McDonald's. Before investing, verify you can explain how the company actually makes money, not just what product or service it sells to consumers.
  • Three-Circle Mapping Method: Draw three concentric circles on paper. The inner circle requires answering five questions: Can you explain the business in 60 seconds, who pays them, their finances, their moat, and what could kill them overnight? Between circles one and two is safe territory. Outside circle two signals insufficient understanding requiring more research or avoidance.
  • Narrative Trap Avoidance: Market narratives — EV in 2020, marijuana stocks around 2018, AI currently — inflate stock prices temporarily but collapse without warning. Rivian stock sits 87% below its peak. Buying into sector hype without a genuine circle of competence means holding positions through severe drawdowns with no analytical framework to evaluate recovery prospects.
  • Portfolio Sizing Scales With Competence: Position size should directly reflect depth of understanding. A 25% portfolio allocation demands near-expert-level knowledge of the business. Spreading across 100 companies requires far less individual depth. Andrew reduced a 10% Starbucks position after recognizing insufficient conviction, reallocating half into Alphabet — a company within his stronger circle.

What It Covers

Stephen Morris and Andrew Sather break down the circle of competence framework for stock picking — defining it as knowing both what you understand and what you do not, using real examples like Zoetis, Eli Lilly, Tesla, and EV stocks to illustrate how misapplying this concept leads to costly investing mistakes.

Key Questions Answered

  • Circle of Competence Definition: The framework has two equally weighted components: knowing what you understand AND knowing what you do not. Most investing mistakes stem from the second part — investors overestimate familiarity with a business because they recognize its name or use its products, without understanding how it actually generates revenue or sustains competitive advantage.
  • Consumer Knowledge vs. Business Knowledge: Recognizing a brand does not equal understanding its business model. Kroger appears to be a grocery chain, but its real revenue driver is owned real estate — similar to McDonald's. Before investing, verify you can explain how the company actually makes money, not just what product or service it sells to consumers.
  • Three-Circle Mapping Method: Draw three concentric circles on paper. The inner circle requires answering five questions: Can you explain the business in 60 seconds, who pays them, their finances, their moat, and what could kill them overnight? Between circles one and two is safe territory. Outside circle two signals insufficient understanding requiring more research or avoidance.
  • Narrative Trap Avoidance: Market narratives — EV in 2020, marijuana stocks around 2018, AI currently — inflate stock prices temporarily but collapse without warning. Rivian stock sits 87% below its peak. Buying into sector hype without a genuine circle of competence means holding positions through severe drawdowns with no analytical framework to evaluate recovery prospects.
  • Portfolio Sizing Scales With Competence: Position size should directly reflect depth of understanding. A 25% portfolio allocation demands near-expert-level knowledge of the business. Spreading across 100 companies requires far less individual depth. Andrew reduced a 10% Starbucks position after recognizing insufficient conviction, reallocating half into Alphabet — a company within his stronger circle.

Notable Moment

Andrew argues that early investing wins can be more dangerous than losses. Using Tesla — which came within 24 hours of bankruptcy before securing last-minute financing — he illustrates how a lucky outcome can create false expertise, causing investors to misallocate future capital based on unearned confidence.

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Episode Transcript

Circle of competence sounds fancy, but it's not really that fancy. Here's what it is. It's know what you know, but more importantly, know what you do not know. A lot of investing mistakes don't just come from bad math. They come from the fact that you're investing in a business. You have confidence in a business that you really don't know at all. You don't have a good understanding of what that business is and how they make money. So today, Andrew and I are gonna dive deep into what the circle of competence means, what it is, and how you can find out where your circle of competence is, and most importantly, where it is not. This show is sponsored by Liquid Ivy. Now that the weather is finally heating up, one of my favorite ways to step away from spreadsheets and the SEC filings is getting outside for an early morning run. But once the summer heat truly kicks in and I start breaking a serious sweat, I know I need to hydrate and actually replenish, and it gets a lot more important. No matter what activities get you moving, you need to stay hydrated as well. Liquid I. V. Delivers longer lasting hydration than water alone. And right now, you get 20% off your first order with code investing at checkout. I always keep a packet of their hydration multiplier sugar free in my gym bag. Their white peach is absolutely delicious. It's incredibly refreshing, and it's made with zero artificial sweeteners. I'll say it again, zero artificial sweeteners. Just one stick and 16 ounces of water hydrates faster than water alone. It's powered by LIV Hydro Science, an optimized ratio of electrolytes essential vitamins and clinically tested nutrients that turn ordinary water into extraordinary hydration. Plus, it actually retains that hydration for up to four hours, so you feel refreshed all morning long. Get moving with superior hydration from Liquid I. V. Tear, pour, live more. Go to liquidiv.com and get 20% off your first purchase with code investing at checkout. That's 20% off your first purchase with code investing at liquidiv.com. I've been thinking about it recently, and I can still remember the exact moment before I launched my very first business. I was sitting there staring at the screen, and the self doubt is hitting me like a ton of bricks. Is this really the right decision? What if I completely fail? What if no one buys anything? Making that leap was terrifying, but pushing through that uncertainty was one of the best decisions I ever made. I just wish I had Shopify back then to ease my worries and handle the heavy lifting for me. Shopify lets you tackle all those important tasks in one place, from inventory to payments to analytics. You name it, making your life easier. They even accelerate your efficiency with built in AI tools that help you write your product descriptions and enhance your photography. Plus, they …

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  • by Shopify

    SPONSORS: Shopify
  • by Liquid IV

    SPONSORS: Liquid IV
  • by Plink

    SPONSORS: Plink
  • by Found

    SPONSORS: Found
  • by Function Health

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company

  • using real examples like Zoetis, Eli Lilly, Tesla, and EV stocks to illustrate how misapplying this concept leads to costly investing mistakes
  • Using Tesla — which came within 24 hours of bankruptcy before securing last-minute financing — he illustrates how a lucky outcome can create false expertise
  • Kroger appears to be a grocery chain, but its real revenue driver is owned real estate — similar to McDonald's.
  • Andrew reduced a 10% Starbucks position after recognizing insufficient conviction, reallocating half into Alphabet
  • Kroger appears to be a grocery chain, but its real revenue driver is owned real estate — similar to McDonald's.
  • Rivian stock sits 87% below its peak.
  • using real examples like Zoetis, Eli Lilly, Tesla, and EV stocks to illustrate how misapplying this concept leads to costly investing mistakes
  • Andrew reduced a 10% Starbucks position after recognizing insufficient conviction, reallocating half into Alphabet — a company within his stronger circle.

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