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In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

Horizon Robotics CEO: Car Chips, Mind-Off Driving and China's Speed

47 min episode · 2 min read
·
Horizon Robotics Ceo

Episode

47 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Health & Wellness, Startups, Fundraising & VC

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • ✓Automotive chip market consolidation: China's automotive computing market has narrowed to three dominant players — NVIDIA, Huawei, and Horizon Robotics. The sector's extreme barriers to entry explain this consolidation: new chip designs require three to four years of development, followed by two to five years of OEM production cycles, totaling five to eight years before revenue materializes.
  • ✓Autonomous driving roadmap: Kai Yu's publicly stated timeline targets hands-free driving across all Chinese passenger vehicles by end of 2028, eyes-off capability by end of 2030, and full mind-off autonomy — where occupants can sleep — by 2035. Current Horizon SuperDrive software running on the Journey 6T chip already delivers consistent hands-free performance in real-world conditions.
  • ✓Platform strategy over vertical integration: Rather than building cars like Xpeng or Xiaomi, Horizon Robotics positions itself as the "Wintel" of robotics — supplying the foundational computing layer across all manufacturers. This enables broader industry impact than any single brand could achieve, while avoiding direct competition with customers like BYD, Volkswagen, and Toyota.
  • ✓China's supply chain as innovation accelerator: China's component ecosystem allows hardware ideas to move from concept to prototype within days via phone call or short domestic flight. This density of suppliers continuously drives down costs and shrinks form factors — the same dynamic that made mobile phone supply chain winners dominant in IoT, now repeating for robotics.
  • ✓EV supply chain predicts robotics winners: Sensors, actuators, radars, and lasers developed at automotive scale become cost-optimized and compact through volume competition. Kai Yu argues that companies winning the EV supply chain race — through high-volume pressure on performance and cost — will automatically hold the strongest position when humanoid robotics reaches meaningful scale around 2030.

What It Covers

Kai Yu, founder and CEO of Horizon Robotics, explains how his company supplies chips and software to one in three Chinese cars, outlines a concrete timeline from hands-free to fully autonomous "mind-off" driving by 2035, and argues China's supply chain dominance positions it to lead the robotics era.

Key Questions Answered

  • •Automotive chip market consolidation: China's automotive computing market has narrowed to three dominant players — NVIDIA, Huawei, and Horizon Robotics. The sector's extreme barriers to entry explain this consolidation: new chip designs require three to four years of development, followed by two to five years of OEM production cycles, totaling five to eight years before revenue materializes.
  • •Autonomous driving roadmap: Kai Yu's publicly stated timeline targets hands-free driving across all Chinese passenger vehicles by end of 2028, eyes-off capability by end of 2030, and full mind-off autonomy — where occupants can sleep — by 2035. Current Horizon SuperDrive software running on the Journey 6T chip already delivers consistent hands-free performance in real-world conditions.
  • •Platform strategy over vertical integration: Rather than building cars like Xpeng or Xiaomi, Horizon Robotics positions itself as the "Wintel" of robotics — supplying the foundational computing layer across all manufacturers. This enables broader industry impact than any single brand could achieve, while avoiding direct competition with customers like BYD, Volkswagen, and Toyota.
  • •China's supply chain as innovation accelerator: China's component ecosystem allows hardware ideas to move from concept to prototype within days via phone call or short domestic flight. This density of suppliers continuously drives down costs and shrinks form factors — the same dynamic that made mobile phone supply chain winners dominant in IoT, now repeating for robotics.
  • •EV supply chain predicts robotics winners: Sensors, actuators, radars, and lasers developed at automotive scale become cost-optimized and compact through volume competition. Kai Yu argues that companies winning the EV supply chain race — through high-volume pressure on performance and cost — will automatically hold the strongest position when humanoid robotics reaches meaningful scale around 2030.

Notable Moment

Kai Yu reframes the automotive chip business's notorious slow returns — five to eight years from project start to revenue — as a strategic advantage rather than a weakness. The very characteristics that make it painful for incumbents create an almost impenetrable barrier that keeps new entrants out permanently.

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Episode Transcript

In some sense, this is terrible business, you know, heavy investment, very slow return. But in my view, sometimes terrible business means great business because that's an entry barrier for all the other newcomers is extremely high. Hi, everybody. I'm Nikola Tangin, the CEO of the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund. Ten years ago, we all assumed self driving cars would come out of Silicon Valley. But today, the most advanced cars on the road are Chinese and western carmakers are going to China to buy the technology. Nobody sits closer to the shift than my guest, Yu Kai, who is the founder and CEO of Horizon Robotics, which supplies the chips and software that let Chinese cars drive themselves. He was one of China's leading AI scientists before he became an entrepreneur, and few people can explain better how China got there and where it goes next. So Kai, welcome. Hi, Nikolai. Let's just start with a simple question. What does Horizon Robotics do? Well, essentially what we are doing is the computing platform for all generic robots, so including self driving cars. But of course, our current business is probably, you know, 95, nearly 100% focusing on cars, passenger vehicles. So if I so if I sit in a car that you that you supply into, what what does your chip do? Well, essentially, it's running the software for the all the way from camera perception to trajectory planning and control. So essentially, it's kind of like brain for older cars. Now your chips run roughly one out of four cars in China. Just tell me about the One one out of three, I think. That's our latest track record. Thank you. Well done. Who who are your customers? Well, you know, the major Chinese, OEMs like BYD, Chile, you know, Cherry, Chang'an, Great Wall, and also the global some of the global OEMs like Volkswagen, Toyota, Suzuki. So quite some local, domestic, and global players. Who do you compete with? Oh, very good question. I think, like, Mobileye, you know, and also Huawei, and there are quite a few domestic players like Black Sesame. I'm I'm not sure if you ever heard of that. And Qualcomm and Media, Texas Instrument, you know, Renesas, NXP. So actually a lot of global and China technology companies. Why are you why are you the best? Oh. Well, very good question. I think, it's really because, we are very focused. You know, we focus on this single, one thing, to, to enable autonomous driving and, all the way to, robotics. We are not doing anything, nothing else. So I think the intensity of focus is is one thing. The other thing I would say is fundamentally our vision and the mission. Because if you look at the name of our company, you know, eleven years ago when we founded this company, we named our company Horizon Robotics. Right? Back to eleven years ago in China, there was even no such a business …

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