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Hard Fork

‘A.I.-Washing’ Layoffs? + Why L.L.M.s Can’t Write Well + Tokenmaxxing

60 min episode · 3 min read

Episode

60 min

Read time

3 min

Topics

Career Growth, Productivity, Fundraising & VC

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • AI Washing vs. Genuine Displacement: When evaluating whether layoffs are AI-driven, examine who specifically is being cut and whether costs are actually reduced. Companies like Block and Atlassian are largely shifting spending from human payroll to AI infrastructure rather than cutting total costs. Meta plans to spend $135 billion on capital expenditures while cutting up to 16,000 jobs — the money moves, not disappears.
  • Post-Training Degrades Creative Writing: LLMs write better creatively at the GPT-2 and GPT-3 stage than modern versions because post-training layers — including RLHF with poorly designed rubrics — constrain models toward helpful-assistant personas. Contractors hired to evaluate writing quality were given nonsensical criteria like counting exclamation marks, systematically training models away from voice, surprise, and stylistic range.
  • Build a Personalized AI Editor Using Claude Projects: Writer Jasmine Sun developed a personal editing system by uploading her full published archive plus personal post-publication reflection notes into a Claude project. Claude then co-developed a custom rubric based on her specific voice and goals — not generic writing standards — and prompts her to supply missing scenes or perspectives rather than generating text on her behalf.
  • Token Costs Are Becoming a Hiring Factor: Individual engineers at major AI labs are consuming 210 billion tokens in a single week, equivalent to roughly 33 Wikipedias. The top Claude Code user spent over $150,000 on tokens in one month. Engineers at non-lab companies are now negotiating token budgets during job offers, and some heavy users effectively cannot afford to leave AI labs where tokens are provided free.
  • Token Leaderboards Create Goodhart's Law Problems: When token consumption becomes a tracked performance metric, it stops measuring productivity. Companies using leaderboards risk incentivizing engineers to run high-cost parallel agent swarms on low-value tasks. A more defensible managerial approach is to question any individual whose token spend significantly exceeds their salary and require demonstrated output — shipped products or measurable revenue — to justify the expenditure.

What It Covers

Kevin Roose and Casey Newton examine three converging tech stories: whether recent mass layoffs at Atlassian, Block, and Meta represent genuine AI-driven workforce reduction or convenient "AI washing"; why LLMs still struggle with literary writing despite broader capability gains; and how Silicon Valley companies are building token-usage leaderboards to track employee AI consumption.

Key Questions Answered

  • AI Washing vs. Genuine Displacement: When evaluating whether layoffs are AI-driven, examine who specifically is being cut and whether costs are actually reduced. Companies like Block and Atlassian are largely shifting spending from human payroll to AI infrastructure rather than cutting total costs. Meta plans to spend $135 billion on capital expenditures while cutting up to 16,000 jobs — the money moves, not disappears.
  • Post-Training Degrades Creative Writing: LLMs write better creatively at the GPT-2 and GPT-3 stage than modern versions because post-training layers — including RLHF with poorly designed rubrics — constrain models toward helpful-assistant personas. Contractors hired to evaluate writing quality were given nonsensical criteria like counting exclamation marks, systematically training models away from voice, surprise, and stylistic range.
  • Build a Personalized AI Editor Using Claude Projects: Writer Jasmine Sun developed a personal editing system by uploading her full published archive plus personal post-publication reflection notes into a Claude project. Claude then co-developed a custom rubric based on her specific voice and goals — not generic writing standards — and prompts her to supply missing scenes or perspectives rather than generating text on her behalf.
  • Token Costs Are Becoming a Hiring Factor: Individual engineers at major AI labs are consuming 210 billion tokens in a single week, equivalent to roughly 33 Wikipedias. The top Claude Code user spent over $150,000 on tokens in one month. Engineers at non-lab companies are now negotiating token budgets during job offers, and some heavy users effectively cannot afford to leave AI labs where tokens are provided free.
  • Token Leaderboards Create Goodhart's Law Problems: When token consumption becomes a tracked performance metric, it stops measuring productivity. Companies using leaderboards risk incentivizing engineers to run high-cost parallel agent swarms on low-value tasks. A more defensible managerial approach is to question any individual whose token spend significantly exceeds their salary and require demonstrated output — shipped products or measurable revenue — to justify the expenditure.
  • AI Capability Gaps Reveal Market Incentive Distortions: Sam Altman himself predicted AI will cure cancer and build self-replicating factories but estimated it will only produce a real poet's passable poem. This gap exists because labs allocate resources toward verifiable, commercially valuable tasks like coding — where output can be automatically checked — rather than literary writing, where quality remains subjective and financially marginal relative to automating software engineers.

Notable Moment

Jasmine Sun described going back through early GPT-2 and GPT-3 outputs while researching and finding the writing style more compelling than current models — more variable, funnier, and genuinely surprising. The models were unreliable and factually chaotic, but post-training designed to create helpful corporate assistants systematically eliminated the qualities that made the writing distinctive.

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Episode Transcript

I just read the most heartwarming news this morning that I wanted to share with you, Kevin. What's that? The UK government has withdrawn a proposal to let AI companies train on copyrighted works after a backlash from artists like Dua Lipa. Did you see this? No. Dua Lipa said, don't start now with this AI. My sugar boo? She litigating, Kevin. She's, like, she's making some new rules, and she's saying we're not gonna train on my copyrighted works. Wow. And that's why she is a queen. And so Dua Lipa, if you're listening, we salute you. Yes. Dua Lipa, you're a Dua keeper. Period. Dua Lipa said artist rights. Wow. I'm Kevin Roose, a tech columnist at the New York Times. I'm Casey Neud from Platformer. And this is hardfork. This week, a big wave of tech layoffs is raising the question, has AI job loss truly begun? Then writer Jasmine Sun is here to help us answer the question, why are chatbots bad at writing? And finally, it's token maxing time, why tech companies are building leaderboards to measure who is spending the most on AI. Well, Casey, for years now, we've been monitoring for signs of an AI job apocalypse. Yeah. We've been monitoring the situation. It's true. And over the past few weeks, I think we've gotten some early indications that something is happening in the labor market, especially for tech workers. Yeah. We have certainly heard CEOs of companies announcing layoffs, invoking AI as a reason that it is happening, and so that has, gotten our attention. Yeah. So just a couple examples from the last few weeks. Last week, Atlassian announced a 10% reduction in its staff about 1,600 jobs that they said were going to help them fund further investment in AI and enterprise sales. That came on the heels of a big round of layoffs at Block, the financial tech company formerly known as Square, which said that it was cutting its staff by about 40% or about 4,000 jobs, saying that they were shifting the way that they were working to use smaller and flatter teams. And then the big one that folks are expecting, maybe as soon as this week is that Meta is reportedly poised to lay off 20% or more of the entire company. This was reported by Reuters last Friday who said that their sources had told them that Meta was preparing to cut as many as 16,000 jobs, the largest layoffs at that company since late twenty two or early twenty twenty three when they laid off 20,000 people. So as of this recording, that hasn't happened yet that we know of, but I know that people at Meta are very on edge and are awaiting the further news about their jobs. Meta, after this story came out, told Reuters that it was, quote, speculative reporting. Which if you're not familiar with the language deployed by Meta communication staffers means this is happening, but we …

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  • by Anthropic

    The top Claude Code user spent over $150,000 on tokens in one month.
  • Claude ProjectsRecommended

    by Anthropic

    Writer Jasmine Sun developed a personal editing system by uploading her full published archive plus personal post-publication reflection notes into a Claude project. Claude then co-developed a custom rubric based on her specific voice and goals.

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