Why Don’t Running Backs Get Paid Anymore? (Update)
Episode
58 min
Read time
2 min
Topics
Career Growth, Productivity, Investing
AI-Generated Summary
Key Takeaways
- ✓Analytics Revolution Impact: Brian Burke's 2008 expected points model proved passing generates significantly higher point expectancy than running plays. Teams running at optimal strategy mix would see payoffs equalize at Nash equilibrium, but data showed massive imbalance favoring passes. This analysis spread slowly through NFL, fundamentally reshaping offensive strategy and position valuation over following decade.
- ✓Collective Bargaining Agreement Trap: The 2011 CBA created rookie wage scale with mandatory four-year contracts plus fifth-year team option, meaning running backs cannot negotiate freely until age 27. By then, after carrying ball 250 times annually for five years, teams view them as past prime. Previously, players negotiated after three years at age 25, maximizing earnings during peak performance years.
- ✓Rule Changes Drive Passing: NFL rewrote passing rules in 1978 and 2004, restricting defensive contact and protecting quarterbacks to increase scoring and viewer engagement. League responded to consumer demand for high-scoring aerial games over defensive battles. These changes made passing exponentially more effective, with teams still exploiting advantages decades later while running game value steadily declined relative to passing.
- ✓Offensive Line Creates Value: First three to four yards of successful running plays result from offensive line blocking and scheme, not running back talent. Teams realized investing in quality offensive linemen and play-calling produces 95% of elite running back production at fraction of cost. Saquon Barkley's 2024 record for yards before first contact with Philadelphia versus poor Giants performance proves line quality matters more than individual talent.
- ✓Career Length Collapse: Average NFL running back career length dropped from 5.5 years twenty years ago to 2.5 years today, declining sharply after 2011 CBA implementation. Position involves most violent contact in football, with running backs blocking 325-pound linemen and absorbing hits every play. Teams adopted running-back-by-committee approach, rotating multiple cheaper players rather than investing long-term in single star, further depressing individual player value and contract leverage.
What It Covers
Economist Roland Fryer and Stephen Dubner investigate why NFL running back salaries have plummeted from second-highest paid position thirty years ago to fifteenth today, despite the position's historical prominence. They examine analytics revolution, rule changes favoring passing, collective bargaining agreements, and career durability issues that transformed football economics.
Key Questions Answered
- •Analytics Revolution Impact: Brian Burke's 2008 expected points model proved passing generates significantly higher point expectancy than running plays. Teams running at optimal strategy mix would see payoffs equalize at Nash equilibrium, but data showed massive imbalance favoring passes. This analysis spread slowly through NFL, fundamentally reshaping offensive strategy and position valuation over following decade.
- •Collective Bargaining Agreement Trap: The 2011 CBA created rookie wage scale with mandatory four-year contracts plus fifth-year team option, meaning running backs cannot negotiate freely until age 27. By then, after carrying ball 250 times annually for five years, teams view them as past prime. Previously, players negotiated after three years at age 25, maximizing earnings during peak performance years.
- •Rule Changes Drive Passing: NFL rewrote passing rules in 1978 and 2004, restricting defensive contact and protecting quarterbacks to increase scoring and viewer engagement. League responded to consumer demand for high-scoring aerial games over defensive battles. These changes made passing exponentially more effective, with teams still exploiting advantages decades later while running game value steadily declined relative to passing.
- •Offensive Line Creates Value: First three to four yards of successful running plays result from offensive line blocking and scheme, not running back talent. Teams realized investing in quality offensive linemen and play-calling produces 95% of elite running back production at fraction of cost. Saquon Barkley's 2024 record for yards before first contact with Philadelphia versus poor Giants performance proves line quality matters more than individual talent.
- •Career Length Collapse: Average NFL running back career length dropped from 5.5 years twenty years ago to 2.5 years today, declining sharply after 2011 CBA implementation. Position involves most violent contact in football, with running backs blocking 325-pound linemen and absorbing hits every play. Teams adopted running-back-by-committee approach, rotating multiple cheaper players rather than investing long-term in single star, further depressing individual player value and contract leverage.
Notable Moment
Former running back LaShawn McCoy describes the 2019 Super Bowl where Kansas City paid Patrick Mahomes massive contract while opponent San Francisco's undrafted running backs carried the team through playoffs. Jimmy Garoppolo threw barely 40 passes total, yet the quarterback received all credit for reaching championship game despite doing bare minimum while running backs performed heavy lifting.
Episode Transcript
Hey there. It's Stephen Dubner. In a matchup that absolutely no one would have predicted, the Seattle Seahawks will play the New England Patriots in this year's Super Bowl. The most prominent players on those teams are New England quarterback Drake May and Seattle wide receiver Jackson Smith Njigba. You'll notice I did not name a running back. Why not? That's what this episode is about. We first ran it last season, and now we've updated facts and figures as necessary. As always, thanks for listening. The National Football League, a phenomenally successful piece of the sports and entertainment industry, is largely built around the forward pass. That's when the quarterback, the star of the show, throws a ball downfield to one of his sprinting receivers who tries to catch the ball and sprint even further down the field. This can be a very exciting thing to watch. In recent years, the passing game has gotten even more exciting and more sophisticated, and it has helped drive the league's massive growth. But if you ask football fans of a certain age who they idolized when they were kids, it probably wasn't a wide receiver or even a quarterback. It was probably a running back. Big opening for Tony Dorsett. Look out. He's got great speed. 99 yards. Tony Dorsett was my favorite player. I had the uniform, the helmet. The running backs were bigger stars during my childhood than the quarterbacks. Sanders. Oh, my god. That's so beautiful. My favorite player of all time was Barry Sanders. The day that he retired, I remember crying. Waters, one man to beat. I had a Ricky Waters jersey when he was with the Eagles, actually. I wore it on the first day of school, I think, of first or second grade. The three men we just heard from, we will meet them later. Two of them are former NFL running backs themselves, and the other has represented many running backs as an agent. The running back I loved as a kid was Franco Harris of the Pittsburgh Steelers. To be honest, I was a little obsessed with Franco. We don't need to get into the details here, but I did once write a book about him called Confessions of a Hero Worshipper. Like I said, a little bit obsessed. I liked everything about Franco, the way he carried himself off the field, but especially how he ran. Some running backs, like Jim Brown, were known for their power, for running people over. Others, like Gale Sayers, were so fast and graceful that it was hard to get a hand on them. Franco was somewhere in the middle, strong but elusive, a darter and a dodger. In football, every play is a miniature drama packed into just a few seconds. 22 athletes moving at once as complicated as a blueprint, as brutal as war, as delicate as ballet. A passing play is a bit of a magic trick. The quarterback and receiver try …
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- Expected Points ModelBy guest
by Brian Burke
“Brian Burke's 2008 expected points model proved passing generates significantly higher point expectancy than running plays.”
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