Sarah Paine – How Russia sabotaged China's rise

What It Covers

Sarah Paine examines Russo-Chinese relations from the mid-nineteenth century through today, revealing how Russia repeatedly sabotaged China's rise through strategic manipulation, territorial seizures, and exploitative alliances, while explaining why their current partnership will likely fracture as power dynamics shift decisively toward China.

Key Questions Answered

• •Continental Empire Rules: Both Russia and China follow two fundamental principles: avoid two-front wars by taking on neighbors sequentially, and prevent great power neighbors by destabilizing rising states and creating buffer zones. This explains why both countries are surrounded by failing states they actively destabilize or absorb, leading to periodic overextension and collapse throughout their histories.
• •Russian Territorial Seizures: Russia extracted territory greater than all US land east of the Mississippi from China between 1858-1960, including the Treaties of Aigun and Peking, Outer Mongolia's detachment, and 83% of Manchuria's electrical equipment after World War Two. These seizures occurred during China's weakest moments, deliberately delaying Chinese development while Russia consolidated gains through deceptive diplomacy.
• •Stalin's Korean War Strategy: Stalin prolonged the Korean War for two years after stalemate, fighting to the last Chinese soldier to weaken both the United States and delay China's rise. This low-risk, high-reward approach isolated China internationally, tied it firmly to Russia, and gave the Soviet Union breathing space to rebuild while western enemies wasted resources in Asia.
• •Power Balance Reversal: China now has nine times Russia's population and nine times its GDP, with per capita GDP converging rapidly. Putin's Ukraine war depletes Russian resources while leaving Siberia vulnerable to Chinese ambitions, particularly Lake Baikal containing over 20% of global surface freshwater that China desperately needs after depleting its North China water table through industrialization.
• •Alliance System Advantage: The World War Two generation understood that prosperity comes from maritime trade and international law, not continental conquest. The Marshall Plan passed overwhelmingly because leaders recognized spending real money on allies creates win-win outcomes where recovering economies buy American goods, versus zero-sum territorial games that breed permanent resentment and eventual collapse.