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Blackstone Podcast

Blackstone Q4 2023 Earnings Call

63 min episode · 2 min read
·

Episode

63 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Health & Wellness, Personal Finance, Relationships

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • Real Estate Valuation Bottom: Commercial real estate values appear to be bottoming as borrowing spreads tighten, Fed stops raising rates, and new construction starts decline sharply by one-third. Three major transactions totaling over $27 billion signal deployment into dislocated markets with $65 billion dry powder available for opportunistic investments.
  • Outperformance During Volatility: Blackstone flagship strategies significantly outperformed public indices over two years: corporate private equity up 12% versus S&P 3%, real estate equity positive versus REITs down 14%, private credit up 25% versus high yield 2%, and infrastructure up 33% versus index 7%.
  • Private Wealth Recovery Trajectory: Perpetual vehicle fundraising accelerated to $2.7 billion in January 2024, the strongest month since June 2022. BCRED raised $1.1 billion and new private equity vehicle BXP raised $1.3 billion in January, representing the largest first close for this product type.
  • Deployment Acceleration Signal: Fourth quarter deployment reached $31 billion, up 2.5 times from Q3, with committed pending transactions of $15 billion. Credit insurance deployment more than tripled quarter-over-quarter to $21 billion, indicating transaction activity inflection point as market conditions stabilize and confidence returns.
  • Insurance Channel Growth Engine: Insurance AUM reached $192 billion, up 20% year-over-year, with clear visibility to $250 billion over next several years from existing clients alone. Expected baseline inflows from four major partners range $25-30 billion annually, providing predictable fee-earning asset growth.

What It Covers

Blackstone reports Q4 2023 earnings with $1.4 billion distributable earnings, discusses real estate market bottoming, accelerating deployment activity, private wealth momentum recovery, and positioning for growth as interest rates decline and market conditions improve.

Key Questions Answered

  • Real Estate Valuation Bottom: Commercial real estate values appear to be bottoming as borrowing spreads tighten, Fed stops raising rates, and new construction starts decline sharply by one-third. Three major transactions totaling over $27 billion signal deployment into dislocated markets with $65 billion dry powder available for opportunistic investments.
  • Outperformance During Volatility: Blackstone flagship strategies significantly outperformed public indices over two years: corporate private equity up 12% versus S&P 3%, real estate equity positive versus REITs down 14%, private credit up 25% versus high yield 2%, and infrastructure up 33% versus index 7%.
  • Private Wealth Recovery Trajectory: Perpetual vehicle fundraising accelerated to $2.7 billion in January 2024, the strongest month since June 2022. BCRED raised $1.1 billion and new private equity vehicle BXP raised $1.3 billion in January, representing the largest first close for this product type.
  • Deployment Acceleration Signal: Fourth quarter deployment reached $31 billion, up 2.5 times from Q3, with committed pending transactions of $15 billion. Credit insurance deployment more than tripled quarter-over-quarter to $21 billion, indicating transaction activity inflection point as market conditions stabilize and confidence returns.
  • Insurance Channel Growth Engine: Insurance AUM reached $192 billion, up 20% year-over-year, with clear visibility to $250 billion over next several years from existing clients alone. Expected baseline inflows from four major partners range $25-30 billion annually, providing predictable fee-earning asset growth.

Notable Moment

Schwarzman reveals Blackstone aggregates real-time data across 230 portfolio companies and 12,000 real estate assets to develop macro insights that predicted inflation moderation in October 2022, contradicting consensus when ten-year treasury hit sixteen-year high of 5% before declining 100 basis points.

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Episode Transcript

Morning, and welcome to Blackstone's fourth quarter conference call. Joining today are Steve Schwarzman, chairman and CEO, John Gray, president and chief operating officer, and Michael Che, chief financial officer. Earlier this morning, we issued a press release and slide presentation, which are available on our website. We expect to file our 10 k report later that later next month. I'd like to remind you that today's call may include forward looking statements, which are uncertain and may differ from actual results materially. We do not undertake any duty to update these statements. For a discussion of some of the factors that could affect results, please see the risk factor section of our 10 k. We'll also refer to non GAAP measures, and you'll find reconciliations in the press release on the shareholders page of our website. Also note that nothing on this call constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any Blackstone fund. This audio cast is copyrighted material of Blackstone and may not be duplicated without consent. Quickly on results, we reported GAAP net income for the quarter of $1,109,000,000. Distributable earnings were $1,400,000,000 or a dollar 11 per common share, and we declared a dividend of 94¢, which will be paid to holders of record as of February 5. With that, I'll turn the call over to Steve. Good morning, and thank you for joining our call. Blackstone reported strong results for the 2023, including our highest distributable earnings in six quarters, which capped a volatile year for global markets. Most major equity indices rebounded from significant declines in 2022, but with wide intra year swings driven by historic movements in treasury yields, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical instability. Against this backdrop, Blackstone generated steady fee related earnings of 4,300,000,000.0 for the year, underpinning healthy distributable earnings of 5,100,000,000.0. Performance revenues were down as expected in the context of limited realizations as we choose to sell less in unfavorable markets. We've designed the firm to provide resiliency in times of stress and capture the upside as markets recover. In the fourth quarter, as bond yields declined and declined and markets rallied, we executed several realizations driving strong sequential growth in DE to 1,400,000,000. 2023 was also a year of important milestones for Blackstone. We were the first alternative manager to surpass $1,000,000,000,000 of assets under management. We were also the first in our sector to be added to the S and P 500 index, positioning our stock to be even more widely owned. We are pleased that BX shares ranked in the top 20 best performing out of the 500 stocks in the s and p 500 index last year. Blackstone is now the fifty fifth largest US public company by market cap, exceeding the market value of all other asset managers. And in December, we released our sixth annual holiday video, which has received over 8,000,000 views, which may not say something about our limited acting skills, but …

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