Episode 177 - March 27, 2026

What It Covers

Biotech Hangout Episode 177 covers the week of March 27, 2026, examining roughly $10 billion in M&A activity including Gilead's $2.2 billion Ouro acquisition and Merck's $6 billion Tern deal, alongside FDA regulatory shifts post-Vinay Prasad, and clinical data from Beam, Sarepta, and Maze Therapeutics.

Key Questions Answered

• •Biotech relative performance: XBI is up approximately 2% year-to-date while the S&P 500 is down 6%, an 8-percentage-point spread in three months. Investors tracking sector rotation should note biotech outperforms on up days by roughly 4x the S&P and declines less on down days, suggesting sustained institutional appetite despite macro uncertainty.
• •FDA approval pace shift: Following Vinay Prasad's departure from CBER, the FDA approved three drugs in one week — Denali's Avolaya for Hunter Syndrome, Rocket's gene therapy for LAD-1, and Imvax's Lofurli — several ahead of PDUFA dates. Companies with orphan or rare disease applications should consider filing now while regulatory flexibility appears elevated under commissioner pressure.
• •Oral psoriasis market expansion: J&J's icicotide approval plus upcoming AAD data from Alumis and Takeda signal the first genuinely efficacious oral psoriasis therapies. Dermatology investors should model market expansion from $20–30 billion toward $40+ billion as millions of patients currently using only topicals gain access to convenient, biologic-comparable oral options.
• •Tern/Merck acquisition premium warning: Merck acquired Tern Pharmaceuticals — developer of TRN-701, a best-in-class CML drug comparable to Novartis' Scemblix — at only a 6% premium to market price. Biotech boards and investors should scrutinize low-premium acquisitions carefully, as selling at market price eliminates future optionality that existing shareholders may have already priced in.
• •APOL1 kidney disease market sizing risk: Maze Therapeutics' MZ-829 data showed strong UPCR reductions in FSGS patients with two APOL1 alleles but minimal effect in diabetic APOL1 patients, sending the stock down 40%. Investors in Vertex's enaxaplan Phase 3 program should reassess addressable market assumptions — the opportunity may be closer to FSGS-only patients than the 250,000-patient APOL1-broad estimate.