Why Prices Are Crashing & What's Next—How Mike Nadeau Called the Cycle

What It Covers

Mike Nadeau explains his October call that the crypto cycle ended, using on-chain holder data and the 50-week moving average break below $100k Bitcoin to predict extended bear market conditions through 2026.

Key Questions Answered

• •Market Structure Analysis: Long-term holder distribution patterns show new money entered Bitcoin at average $102k cost basis over past year, creating top-heavy structure with weak hands now underwater, historically signaling cycle tops when combined with leverage buildup.
• •50-Week Moving Average Signal: Bitcoin breaking below the 50-week moving average around $100k with multiple weekly closes confirms bear market entry, matching historical pattern where two consecutive closes below this level in cycle year four always preceded extended downturns.
• •Bear Market Price Targets: Nadeau targets $65k-$75k Bitcoin entry zone where 200-week moving average, realized price, and mining cost converge, representing 50% correction versus 75-85% drops in prior cycles due to shallower euphoria peak this time around.
• •Global Liquidity Headwinds: Declining US fiscal deficit from tariff revenues plus reduced government spending creates liquidity drain that Fed rate cuts cannot offset, as lower rates reduce $38 trillion debt interest payments flowing into economy, contradicting bullish rate-cut narratives.