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Why Prices Are Crashing & What's Next—How Mike Nadeau Called the Cycle

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Read time

2 min

Topics

Investing, Sales & Revenue, Crypto & Web3

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • Market Structure Analysis: Long-term holder distribution patterns show new money entered Bitcoin at average $102k cost basis over past year, creating top-heavy structure with weak hands now underwater, historically signaling cycle tops when combined with leverage buildup.
  • 50-Week Moving Average Signal: Bitcoin breaking below the 50-week moving average around $100k with multiple weekly closes confirms bear market entry, matching historical pattern where two consecutive closes below this level in cycle year four always preceded extended downturns.
  • Bear Market Price Targets: Nadeau targets $65k-$75k Bitcoin entry zone where 200-week moving average, realized price, and mining cost converge, representing 50% correction versus 75-85% drops in prior cycles due to shallower euphoria peak this time around.
  • Global Liquidity Headwinds: Declining US fiscal deficit from tariff revenues plus reduced government spending creates liquidity drain that Fed rate cuts cannot offset, as lower rates reduce $38 trillion debt interest payments flowing into economy, contradicting bullish rate-cut narratives.

What It Covers

Mike Nadeau explains his October call that the crypto cycle ended, using on-chain holder data and the 50-week moving average break below $100k Bitcoin to predict extended bear market conditions through 2026.

Key Questions Answered

  • Market Structure Analysis: Long-term holder distribution patterns show new money entered Bitcoin at average $102k cost basis over past year, creating top-heavy structure with weak hands now underwater, historically signaling cycle tops when combined with leverage buildup.
  • 50-Week Moving Average Signal: Bitcoin breaking below the 50-week moving average around $100k with multiple weekly closes confirms bear market entry, matching historical pattern where two consecutive closes below this level in cycle year four always preceded extended downturns.
  • Bear Market Price Targets: Nadeau targets $65k-$75k Bitcoin entry zone where 200-week moving average, realized price, and mining cost converge, representing 50% correction versus 75-85% drops in prior cycles due to shallower euphoria peak this time around.
  • Global Liquidity Headwinds: Declining US fiscal deficit from tariff revenues plus reduced government spending creates liquidity drain that Fed rate cuts cannot offset, as lower rates reduce $38 trillion debt interest payments flowing into economy, contradicting bullish rate-cut narratives.

Notable Moment

Nadeau shifted to 60% cash position on October 10th morning based on deteriorating market structure data, hours before the major flash crash event that validated his contrarian cycle-end thesis when most analysts remained bullish.

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Episode Transcript

Begless nation. This is Ryan Sean Adams. I have Michael Nadeau here from the d five report on the podcast today. Michael, we are fresh back from holidays, man. How were your holidays? How was Thanksgiving? Did you get any weird crypto questions from your family? Fantastic Thanksgiving. I appreciate you asking. I'm, I'm actually on the road right now down down to Florida. But now I've had a nice little break, talked a little bit about crypto with the family. My dad's, flying high. He's actually more of a a gold bug, so he's pretty excited about gold right now. Yeah. He should be. Yeah. Enjoying the break. Hopefully, you have as well. Yeah. I have. Definitely. And, hopefully, your family members were following the DeFi report because you made some calls that actually held up very well, and, they should be pretty happy for for receiving them. There's a few things I wanna talk about today on the agenda. There's definitely no sugarcoating it. Crypto prices are down bad. At the time of recording, we are well below 3,000 on ETH price. And I don't know. Are we 85 k, something like this, on on Bitcoin? We're recording this on there. I think so. Yeah. Monday, December 1. We gotta talk about that. It feels like investors are moving towards the acceptance phase that this is more than a pullback, that maybe the cycle is over. So, Mike, I wanna get your perspective on what happens next. And one of the things you've done is really called this cycle better than pretty much anyone else I'm following closely. So I gotta ask you how you saw this in advance, what data you used, and if some of that data can be used to help us predict the way out, the next leg up. Hopefully, there's some hope here. And most importantly, I wanna find out what you are doing now when you're buying back in and what assets you're looking at. You've told me before, Mike, that you actually get more energized during bear cycles, during the the big long term dips. So are you feeling energized right now? You know, there there's been a lot of negativity, you know, on crypto Twitter, and I think people are are, a little soured by this price action out there, I do feel energized. And I think my long term bullish outlook for crypto hasn't changed at all. And I think the reason that I enjoy the bear markets is just you get a little bit more clarity, especially for folks like me that are really focused on data and fundamentals. It's sort of easier to sort of see what's real once some of the froth gets kind of taken out of the markets. And so that's where a lot of the really strong sort of conviction thesis work comes into play. And I think the nice thing about these four year cycles is you sort of get a chance …

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